NXN-NY / NE Previews And Projections Highlight Strong Races

NXN-NY Boys Teams

Breakdown:  It's a big field here in NY, for the first time ever with the same amount of teams as the Northeast Region.  In fact, at 28 squads, it's exactly the same amount as those that toed the line at Feds, however the field is much more competitive here.  At the top, Manlius and Shenendehowa are looking to have a rematch of their battle at States.  If things play out the same as States, Manlius looks to be the only team under 100-points.  Shen had a slightly off-day at States.  If they return to their Sectional Performance, they could close that gap.

The race for third is an interesting one.  Burnt Hills won the Fed Meet, and in theory, should be the favorite for a potential At-Large slot.  However, Beaver River, with a different race distribution moves ahead of BH performance at Feds.  Their front three outscore that of BH.   However, BH has David Metacarpa entered, who has sat out the past four meets.  If he returns in shape, his inclusion could close a gap on those front two teams.

The other big question is Pittsford-Mendon.  They had an off race at Feds, as well as missing their #2 runner (who is entered in Regionals).  Take their Speed Ratings from States and plug them in, they fly to just five points off of Shenendehowa.  We've merged the two performances to capture an average to create the below projections.

The real case for an At-Large here, would be to beat the #3 NorthEast team in a merge of the two Regions.  It would be a tall task, but it's not unheard of for big things to happen at Regionals.

Boys 5000 Meter Run Team Scores                       
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    Team                        Pts     1    2    3    4    5   (6)  (7) 
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  1 Fayetteville-Manlius        96      3    4    8   39   42   46   96  
      Total Time: 1:36      Average: 19.20      1-5 Split: 39
  2 Shenendehowa                154    21   22   30   40   41   66   70  
      Total Time: 2:34      Average: 30.80      1-5 Split: 20
  3 Beaver River                172     2   17   24   64   65   102  126 
      Total Time: 2:54      Average: 34.80      1-5 Split: 1:04
  4 Burnt Hills-Ballston Lake   189     5   28   32   55   69   110  148 
      Total Time: 3:10      Average: 38.00      1-5 Split: 1:05
  5 Pittsford Mendon            213     1   23   45   56   88   95   178 
      Total Time: 3:34      Average: 42.80      1-5 Split: 1:28
  6 Mount Academy               223    13   36   47   51   76   82   180 
      Total Time: 3:44      Average: 44.80      1-5 Split: 1:04
  7 Saranac Lake                232     6   12   20   93   101  124  132 
      Total Time: 3:54      Average: 46.80      1-5 Split: 1:36
  8 Guilderland                 245     7   25   38   53   122  137  166 
      Total Time: 4:06      Average: 49.20      1-5 Split: 1:56
  9 Fordham Prep                289     9   18   35   106  121  139  157 
      Total Time: 4:51      Average: 58.20      1-5 Split: 1:53
 10 Xavier                      310    31   58   60   74   87   89   105 
      Total Time: 5:13      Average: 1:02.60      1-5 Split: 57
 11 Shaker                      314    16   59   71   83   85   116  155 
      Total Time: 5:18      Average: 1:03.60      1-5 Split: 1:10
 12 Corning                     325    26   48   57   91   103  134   -  
      Total Time: 5:27      Average: 1:05.40      1-5 Split: 1:18
 13 East Aurora                 337    34   37   79   90   97   133  156 
      Total Time: 5:40      Average: 1:08.00      1-5 Split: 1:04
 14 Saratoga Springs            353    15   44   73   86   135  158  171 
      Total Time: 5:56      Average: 1:11.20      1-5 Split: 2:01
 15 Northport                   358    10   29   54   104  161  179  193 
      Total Time: 6:00      Average: 1:12.00      1-5 Split: 2:32
 16 Liverpool                   361    19   33   92   99   118  146   -  
      Total Time: 6:04      Average: 1:12.80      1-5 Split: 1:40
 17 Westhampton Beach           446    11   52   94   125  164  181  192 
      Total Time: 7:29      Average: 1:29.80      1-5 Split: 2:34
 18 Manhasset                   450    63   68   98   108  113  128  147 
      Total Time: 7:35      Average: 1:31.00      1-5 Split: 50
 19 Hackley                     487    27   75   119  130  136  188  190 
      Total Time: 8:11      Average: 1:38.20      1-5 Split: 1:50
 20 Arlington                   494    14   61   129  141  149  152   -  
      Total Time: 8:18      Average: 1:39.60      1-5 Split: 2:16
 21 Susan E. Wagner             513    78   84   109  115  127  142  143 
      Total Time: 8:38      Average: 1:43.60      1-5 Split: 49
 22 Washingtonville             560    77   100  114  131  138  144  182 
      Total Time: 9:25      Average: 1:53.00      1-5 Split: 1:01
 23 Delhi                       570    49   62   112  170  177  189  191 
      Total Time: 9:34      Average: 1:54.80      1-5 Split: 2:09
 24 Bethlehem Central           577    67   81   107  154  168  172  175 
      Total Time: 9:42      Average: 1:56.40      1-5 Split: 1:41
 25 Ballston Spa                601    50   80   150  159  162  167  176 
      Total Time: 10:05      Average: 2:01.00      1-5 Split: 1:53
 26 Arkport-Canaseraga          637    43   111  145  165  173  183  186 
      Total Time: 10:41      Average: 2:08.20      1-5 Split: 2:11
 27 Great Neck South            642    72   117  140  153  160  169  185 
      Total Time: 10:47      Average: 2:09.40      1-5 Split: 1:28
 28 Columbia (Sec 2)            731    120  123  151  163  174  184  187 
      Total Time: 12:16      Average: 2:27.20      1-5 Split: 54