Girls Class A - Individuals
Will history repeat itself?
In 2015, the race was billed as the strength runner (Chmiel) against the superior track speed (Lawson) alongside the four-year-veteran from FM (Neal), all to be upset by another FM competitor racing at States for the first time (Walters).
The names are different, but the race breakdown is the same in 2021. Karrie Baloga is the quickest of the field on the track, with a 15-20 second gap on the next fastest girl for 3000m, and an even bigger gap when it comes to the Steeple. She has the strength, shown while cruising to victory in NJ, while also having the speed to notch a win at the Manhattan Eastern's race. The question is, what happens with pressure. This is the first race entered, that has anyone within 10 Speed Rating points of her, across the entire season.
The rest of the field comes from Section 3, a race that got a trial run this past Saturday. Emily Toth-Ratazzi has been on a steady rise since emerging from the pandemic break, showing breakthrough races in Spring of 2020. Since then, she's been posting very strong times in field that had yet to challenge her. Faced with her first big challenge of the year, Ratazzi took the race from the gun at Sectionals, forcing the field to keep up, or be left out. The pace didn't let up until the final stretches of the race, where one move changed the outcome. The Syracuse-bound senior could very well change that on Saturday,
In was in those final stages of the race that freshman Izzie Sullivan saw her opening, and moved in for the win at Sectionals. Her and teammate Hannah Kaercher had been on Toth-Ratazzi's shoulder for the entirety of the race, and it was the youngster who had the gas at the end to pull out the win. Between the pair from FM over the season, the wins have been pretty evenly split 4-3, so the order could switch up again at States. Having two teammates at the front means the team scoring will be split between them, regardless of the finish order.
Behind the top four, any number of Saratoga girls could make a big jump. With the depth they have, it would be hard to pinpoint any single athlete with certainty.