2016 NY Girls XC Preview: Class A

The strength of this year's Class A field in New York can be seen in a couple of different lights. Compared with the top 25 teams in the preseason preview last year, this year's crowd is averaging about 2 points less at the respective positions in every place except the top two spots and the 25th one. On the other hand, the top 20 individual runners are about 2 to 4 points higher this year than for last year's preview. So maybe at the very top there are some very high flyers bolstered by a young group, as half of the top 10 returning runners were in 8th or 9th grade last year. But many Class A teams took some hard hits at graduation, and the team depth may be a bit down and needing a quick infusion of young legs.

Last year was a fantastic showcase for the NY-A teams, as Fayetteville-Manlius won its 9th NXN national championship, Saratoga moved back up to the 4th spot out in Portland, and North Rockland locked into a top 10 place in its first trip west. Jessica Lawson and the graduated Kathryn Munks represented the NY-A girls at Foot Locker in San Diego. Earlier, FM won the Manhattan Eastern States, States A, and NXN-NY contests, Saratoga took the Federation crown, and Shenendehowa was the winner of the McQuaid AAA race.

With last year's three NXN teams rated at #1, #3, and #9 in this year's Tully Runners national preseason review, it would be tempting to say that all is settled at the top. But it never is, and many things can happen during a season to drop a team back a ways or to boost a team on the near fringes last year like North Rockland into an at-large ticket for Nationals. Beginning in early September, much will be revealed.

The contests for the nine Class A sectional titles do not feature any projected nailbiters, though that could change quickly once the true nature of team strengths become clear by October. North Rockland, Saratoga, Fayetteville-Manlius, and Syosset and have at least a 10+ gap over the nearest competition in Sections 1, 2, 3, and 8, respectively. The closest battles for reigning champs appear to be out in Section 5 with Webster Thomas trying to fend off Rush-Henrietta, Section 11 as a hard-hit Sachem East sees Ward Melville and Bay Shore coming up behind, Section 6 with Clarence vying with a developing Williamsville North team, and Section 9 as Monroe-Woodbury hopes its depth will again stave off Warwick Valley. Jessica Lawson's Corning team has a big ratings gap over reigning champ Elmira in Section 4, but the battle there should be much closer than the numbers suggest.

Speaking of Lawson, there are a lot of races she has won, but one she has never quite sealed the deal on is the States Class A title, with her States win as a freshman coming in Class B, which has then been followed by two runner-up finishes in A. This year the reigning States champ Claire Walters of FM is back to defend her title, and Saratoga's Kelsey Chmiel, West Genesee's Carly Benson, and Suffern's Mary Hennelly are back along with Lawson as top 5 finishers in the 2015 States. And the pack of contenders for Walters' A title also includes two other top 10 finishers in North Rockland's Katelyn Tuohy and Walters' own big sister Becca, so she will have to be one tough freshman to fend off all the threats, near and far, as her team goes for an 11th straight States title.

As always, there are changes in the classifications for some schools that we will try to all remember by the time the state rankings are ready to be rolled out in September. Among the former B teams that will be learning to love their new home in A this season are Queensbury, West Seneca West, Ursuline, Hamburg, Irondequoit, Spencerport, and Union Endicott.

As always in the preseason previews, we make projections, and if they turn out to be right we later refer to them as firm predictions. Last year we went far out on the tree branch and said that the Class A action would be pretty exciting, and we somehow nailed it. Same for this year.