2018 CHSAA Championship Preview

Virtual Meet: Not meant to be a prediction, just another look (some CHSAA teams may be missing)

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CHSAA Boys


Top 12 Teams 

PositionTeamTR - (Compression)Top Runners

1

Xavier

165.4 (18)

Branham-Upton, Hassler, Tuffey, Rice, O'Brien, Flett, Abernathy

2

Archbishop Molloy

162.6 (23)

Ja. Loeffel, Jo. Loeffel, Ostling, Degirmenci, Barreira, Tracy, Marina

3

St. Anthony's

161.8 (27)

Payamps, Dearie, (Kudla), J. Connolly, Chung, Reda, L. Connolly

4

Monsignor Farrell

158.0 (12)

Paxis, Rainbolt, Bentivegna, Siconolfi, Devito, Mitsopolos

5

Iona Prep

153.0 (41)

Bravo, Mulvany, Destasio, McDermott, Fox

6

Regis

151.8 (23)

Gallagher, Bednar, Molz, Ellwood, Vizzini, Jamshahi

7

Chaminade

151.6 (16)

McGrath, Naudus, McLean,, Kehrli, DeMeo, Cahill

8

Fordham Prep

149.2 (46)

Sullivan, Ryan, Jordaens, Tobin, Zanetti, Denahy

9

St. John the Baptist

147.2 (28)

O'Connell, Fiorillo, Healy, Sanchez, Aleaga

10

St. Joseph by the Sea

140.6 (20)

Palermo, Pisapia, Scanni, Masters, Anzalone

11

St. Francis Prep

138.4 (28)

Athanailos, Llanos, Germain, Lynch, Bacile

12

St. Peter's

137.6 (24)

Sokoll, Politi, Kolikes, Gramprey, Harding


Summary: The numbers for the CHSAA guys' race all seem to be going Xavier's way. With a somewhat better speed rating and tighter compression than its three main rivals and with Oliver Branham-Upton, Owen Hassler, and Michael Tuffey in the CHSAA's top 10 plus Ethan Rice and Michael O'Brien in the top 20, there does not seem to be any likely way for the Knights to lose if they run to form. So after not having won a championship in 85 years prior to 2016, Xavier looks pretty good to extend its winning streak to three.

The chief competition for the Knights is projected to be Archbishop Molloy, which finished 2nd to Xavier in the NY-BQ CHSAA race by 13 points. The Stanners have a strong top trio of NY-BQ CHSAA winner James Loeffel, John Loeffel, and John Ostling on the lead, and they could keep this race close if 4-5 guys Demir Degirmenci and Matisse Barreira can move up a little bit. In a virtual tie for the 3rd spot are St. Anthony's and Monsignor Farrell. The Friars have the strongest top two of Matthew Payamps and Brendan Dearie on the lead, but injuries have have hampered St. Anthony's this year and it will need a return to health by a couple of runners to make a strong attempt for the title. Monsignor Farrell is led by Christopher Paxis and its pack has by far the best compression among the top teams, so the Lions should be scoring well above what their speed ratings would indicate. The score for the top four teams from a virtual compilation of speed ratings gives the following:

1. Xavier 56,  2. Archbishop Molly 76,  3. St. Anthony's 97,  4. Monsignor Farrell 97

Last year's projections were 44-67 for Xavier over St. Anthony's and the actual score was 35-65 as the Knights put the hammer down. There were a few top runners on some teams that were held out of their sectional races but who had run in their team's previous race, so we counted them as part of the lineup. There are also a few runners who have been absent for many weeks and who we did not count but who might possibly return.

Beyond the battle among the top four teams, there should also be a good contest between Iona Prep, Regis and Chaminade for a spot in the top 5. The Gaels have the best speed rating among the three, but Chaminade and Regis have much tighter packs and will likely be locked most closely in the fight for 5th.

The top runner for the individual title will be Matthew Payamps, who will be seeking to replace last year's Friar teammate Mason Gatewood as the winner. There's a lot of guys grouped a short way behind Payamps, with James Loeffel, Owen Hassler, and Oliver Branham-Upton who were 1-2-3 at NY-BQ CHSAA, Brendan Dearie who was 2nd at NSCHSAA, and Pedro Bravo who was 3rd at Westchester County all being in the hunt.


Top Athletes
Matthew Payamps
12CHSSt. Anthony's179
Oliver Branham-Upton
11CHSXavier175
James Loeffel
12CHSArchbishop Molloy
174
Pedro Bravo
11CHSIona Prep
174
Brendan Dearie
12CHSSt. Anthony's
174
Owen Hassler
10CHSXavier172
Eamonn Sullivan
10CHSFordham Prep
172
Niall Ryan
11CHSFordham Prep169
Michael Tuffey
10CHSXavier165
John Loeffel
12CHSArchbishop Molloy
165
John Ostling
11CHSArchbishop Molloy
165
Christopher Paxis
11CHSMonsignor Farrell
164
Brendan McGrath
12CHSChaminade163
James Gallagher
11CHSRegis162
Andrew Rainbolt
12CHSMonsignor Farrell
160
Anthony Bentivegna
11CHSMonsignor Farrell
159
Ethan Rice
11CHSXavier158
Demir Degirmenci
12CHSArchbishop Molloy
158
Brendan Mulvany
11CHSIona Prep
157
Johnny O'Connell
11CHSSt. John the Baptist
157
Constantinos Anthanailos
12CHSSt. Francis157
Michael O'Brien
12CHSXavier157



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