State of the State: How We Got Here, and Where We're Going

Boys State of the Action



How We Got Here

After a warmer than average summer, teams were looking towards a condensed Invitational season.  Traditionally, the Pre-State, McQuaid, Manhattan circuit each comes with a week gap between, providing the perfect opportunity for all-out racing.  In 2016, those three meets were back-to-back, thinning out some of the competition.

The big story of the early season has been a struggle for power.  After clear favorites over the past few years, no boys teams were standing out in the early season.  Corning has been the most consistent, and looks to have an increase in performance at Chenango, but their is a lot of parity close to them.  Teams have been variable across the season, and no big team performances have come forward, that would rival the national scene.

One of the bigger stories of the season has come from outside.  Although no longer technically a New Yorker, former Carthage standout Noah Affolder has come back to take down his winning marks from last year's major meets.  That means lowering his McQuaid course record, and another win at Manhattan.  But then again, it now means we won't see him within the Empire State again until Foot Locker Northeast.


Where We Go From Here

Championship season is on the horizon, with post-season not far behind it.  Below, I take a look at some of the big questions.

Race to watch for

Sec 3 Class A

No change in 2016, as Section 3 Class A will look to highlight sectionals week as the closest race of the weekend.  But for the first time in a long while, winning this race won't guarantee a state title.  Their is a pretty significant threat of Corning taking home their first title ever.  Another change will be that this year, there are three teams (not just two) with a legitimate chance of taking home the win, each with their own strategy.  Heading into the race, they're about dead even.

For Liverpool, their compression is the widest of the three.  They might have the second best Top 3 in the country, trailing only that of American Fork.  With the constant gains by their German Foreign Exchange student in their third position, they might have a top three over 185 by sectionals.  After those three, as most teams who have been zapped by graduation will understand, its about finding underclassmen to step up.  They have been shuffling their squad in the pursuit of finding the right man for the job.  In addition, their seventh man from the year before, Gabe Albert, has not taken back to XC yet.  If he comes back at 160 with a sophomore stepping up, things could get interesting.

For Baldwinsville, it is almost the complete opposite.  They have ability to put 12 guys within a 30-second compression, yet are in search of a true front runner.  The question here will be how far can they push their 10-man limit at sectionals.  Even if that pack passes one runner, it's a huge swing in the scoring.  They get in the right spot, and things could get interesting.

Finally, Fayetteville-Manlius is a mixture of both philosophies.  They have a man out front, but can't quite get the compression of B-ville.  The key there will be to swing the middle runners forward, while still improving the tail end.  If the compression tightens up, things could get interesting.

Regional Showdown

As we mentioned, it's easy to call this a down year in terms of teams breaking across the nation.  But the parity between all teams is going to make for some incredibly close action at Regionals.  First, let's assume New York is not going to receive an At-Large to NXN.  That means it is sudden death elimination at NXR beyond the top two.  So who is in contention?  Well, the three from Section 3 sure are.  Plus, there's more,

Corning not only looks good on their sectional course, they've looked like the team to beat everywhere they've raced.  Solid up front, with 2-4 above average, their only weakness lies in their fifth's ability to get above 160 when it counts.  They've been undefeated all season, and top the rankings so far.

Burnt Hills is slowly edging their way to NY #2.  They've had solid performances all season, but showed some variability at their home invite, some runners having off days.  Based off the Bville and McQuaid invites, they have the same kind of compression as Baldwinsville, yet at a higher level.  That can be dangerous in the bigger fields such as NXR, where the #5 runners can get pushed way back in the scoring if they're not close to the front.

Xavier has put together some solid runs, and continues to improve all season.  Saratoga looked strong on the State Meet course, but has to put together a stronger back end to make a push for an auto-slot.  Lastly, Ithaca has been nursing some star power back up front, and could be in contention when the time comes.

What Of The Individuals?

Consider this.  What other year can you remember where New York has no male athlete averaging a 190 or higher by this point in the season?  Unlike the girls, many of the top male athletes in the state come from teams who are a little off the realm of qualifying as a team.  But the reality of the depth in the state may sway them back to NXN.  Typically, it takes a 188 or above to grab a spot at Foot Locker, or NXR.  With very few athletes averaging that this season, do they push the risk towards NXR, where only 5 slots are available, versus Foot Locker Northeast, where 10 are open to all states?  For athletes like Noah Carey, Nathan Lawler, and the pair from Sachem, does their success at the Manhattan Invite sway them from their typical trip to Bowdoin? It all comes down to what the other states look like.  If it is a down year everywhere, then Foot Locker becomes enticing.  But NJ, RI, and PA already have athletes over that 190 barrier.  How many have to before NXR looks like the safer choice?  It'll be interesting to see where people go.

Who is the Sleeper Pick for Post-Season?

While people may not see him as the clear favorite slot as his teammate Kenny Vasbinder was the year before, Ian Russ continues to go undefeated in 2016.  That includes both the Pre-State Meet, as well as at McQuaid.  While he may not have been in the fastest races of those days, we think he'll be right in the mix come regionals.