2016 NY Boys XC Preview: Class A



Class A Preview
2016 Season Overview for Class A

For the second year in a row, the battle for the NY Class A title was essentially decided at the Section 3 state qualifier as the top two teams Liverpool and Fayetteville-Manlius again vied for supremacy and the Warriors put an end to the Hornets' seven year run at Sectionals. Ben Petrella then led Liverpool to dominating wins at States and NXN-NY, and both the Warriors and FM flew to Portland where Liverpool was 10th and the Hornets 21st at NXN Nationals.

Now after the departure of the State's top 3 of Petrella, Saratoga's Aidan Tooker, and McQuaid's Donny Glavin and the loss for both Liverpool and FM of three to four members from last year's varsity, the question is whether the Class A action will be more competitive at the top and whether the perfomance level will take a hit. With a pack of teams like Ithaca, Warwick Valley, Corning, Sachem North, and Saratoga equaling or passing the preseason ratings for Liverpool and FM, it does look like this could be one of the scrappiest contests for the Class A crown in many years. And yes the average ratings for the top 5 teams are down a bit this year from 2015's preseason numbers, but everything levels out further down, indicating that there should be a lot of competitive sectional battles this year.

The best sectional contest may well be in Section 3 again as top-5 powers FM and Liverpool square off, but now they could be joined by Baldwinsville and West Genesee, who are running close enough behind to join the S3-A fray if say an awesome freshman or sophomore were to show up on the opening day of practice. Section 4 also has a great showdown ready to show up as top-rated Ithaca brings back its same old crew from last year to battle with Corning's well-stocked 2015 States runner-up. And if you are looking for a contest that is both deep and competitive, take a trip over to Section 2 to watch the 7th to 10th rated group of Saratoga, Guilderland, Shenendehowa, and Queensbury duke it out. S1-A with Arlington and Fox Lane, S5-A  with Penfield, Fairport, and McQuaid, S6-A with Orchard Park and Lockport, and S11-A with Sachem North and Northport all appear slated to have very tight contests, so the heat index should stay very high from August through early November before the sectional winners head to Chenango Valley.

Despite the graduation of the Petrella-Tooker-Glavin top trio, the Class A ranks are still pretty flush high up, and the returners include 7 of the top-12 finishers in the States A race. Most eminent among them is Guilderland's Noah Carey who finished 4th at Monroe-Woodbury and went to NXN Nationals, winning him the plum role of the leader of the New York A team this year. But other guys who are likely to take starring turns include Sachem North teammates Christopher Tibbetts and Jonathan Lauer, Liverpool's top duo of Ty Brownlow and Stevie Schulz, and West Genesee's David Leff, Ithaca's Jake Avery, and FM's Patrick Perry.

We are likely entering a much less predictable season for Class A than those of recent years, and that could be a very good and exciting thing.


The Class A runners at States head out at Monroe-Woodbury.
Top 5 Teams at 2015 States





1. Liverpool
61
2. Corning 803. Arlington 1034. Saratoga 1225. Warwick Valley 127
Projected Top 5 Teams for 2016 from Returners' 2015 TR Ratings





1. Ithaca 168.42. Fayetteville-Manlius 167.63. Warwick Valley 164.64.Corning 164.05. Liverpool 163.6
Projected Next 10 Teams for 2016 from Returners' 2015 TR Ratings





6. Sachem North 163.4

7. Saratoga 163.28. Guilderland 161.29. Shenendehowa 161.010. Queensbury 160.0





11. Northport 159.412. Baldwinsville 158.813. West Genesee 157.614. Orchard Park 157.415. Penfield 156.6





16. Fairport 156.2

17. Lockport 153.618. McQuaid 155.419t. Arlington 155.219t. Fox Lane 155.2





21. Niskayuna 154.6

22. Port Washington 153.823. Irondequoit 153.624. Frontier 153.225. Churchville-Chili 152.6





Next: Colonie, Cicero-North Syracuse, Ward Melville, Syosset, Sachem East, Hamburg, Hilton

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Liverpool's Ben Petrella and Saratoga's Aidan Tooker lead the field up the first big hill early at States.



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