We're officially through the Invitational portion of the Cross Country Season, and the stage is set for the gauntlet of the Championship run. Throughout the year, we've been compiling the data, and publishing our State Rankings, which try to take a view of the nearly 1000 schools across New York State. It's a tough job, made tougher by variable weather, courses, and competitions. Luckily, we have speed ratings to aide in our plight, an imperfect system that is better than any alternative. They provide a statistical rationale to a subjective venture, and are a good indicator of what potentially may come down the line.
Ranking teams based solely on the Top 5 average is an imperfect system. Compression matters, as does field size. A top-heavy team with a lagging fifth man can balloon a score in a huge Invitational, while be less of a liability in a State Meet setting with only eight other teams. It sometimes changes the views of head-to-head matchups, when deciding if your rankings should predict the reality of our State Meet, with limited teams, or they should predict the ideal situation, a Federation Meet quantity of schools. Our rankings are reflective, to a point, but are always forward-facing.
We decided to take a deeper look into our State Rankings, and decipher what the data was telling us. Our system will not always predict every head-to-head matchup. That would assume each team was producing their combined best effort, every week, and improving at the same rate. That's just not the case. But more times than not, the ratings play out, and offer a valuable insight.
Join us, as we dig in.
Girls Breakdown | Boys Breakdown
Key Takeaways
- The only teams to have gotten better every weekend they have raced are Manlius Girls, St. Anthony's Boys, and Cornwall Girls. All three Coaches have qualified for post-season National Championships previously, two of which have won more than one National Title.
- Boys Teams that ran McQuaid, not Manhattan, peaked on McQuaid weekend. Those that ran Manhattan, not McQuaid, peaked on Manhattan weekend. Teams that ran both peaked at McQuaid.
- Girls rankings have remained constant after head-to-head matchups. Boys have not.
- The week of 10/7 only had 3 of the Top 20 teams in the State compete.
- Preseason favorites Saratoga Girls & Fairport Boys have each posted the highest point total in their respective gender, to date.
- Most Boys Teams have four solid runners, averaging a 4th runner around 168. Most Boys Teams have a problem with their 5th, averaging under 160.
Note: State Rankings are done by an independent individual, so that we can continue our editorial content without bias towards outcomes.