Girls
The top four teams in the State have all been NXN Finalists under their Coaches tenure. Two of which have comprised more National Team titles than the rest of the country combined. East Aurora, one of the smallest public schools to ever qualify, took 4th overall in 2012. Experience matters in Cross Country from a coaching standpoint, and there is no shortage in New York. Bethlehem is the newest team on the scene, and have ridden their compression-style running to a NXN-bid last year, and returned a majority of their team.
Saratoga is not without it's weakness in 2023. They won NXN in 2019, would have won the next two years sans COVID, and returned to the top of the podium last year. They are rebuilding, but return a core trio from that squad. They've remained on top of the rankings, despite not racing (illness on Varsity took them out of BH) in-state since the opening weekend.
Why do they stay there, despite compression teams being able to pack their entire squads before their 4th and 5th?
First, Saratoga has long been known to highlight the Suburban Council Champs as their true debut. It's typically the meet where their full strength is on display. Last year, Saratoga put together very similar speed ratings at the VVS '22 Invite as they did in '23. Low ratings in September (despite being higher than anything anyone has run since) should not be a concern. Saturday will give us the info on whether they've been able to bring along their young newcomers.
Second, at the State Meet, the field is small. The gaps are not ballooned as they would be at other races, including Suburbans. It may be harder to get out of Sectionals than to win States, just because of the pack density. Bethlehem has a legitimate shot to win States by winning Sectionals. It'll provide a thrilling race.
Elsewhere, Manlius continues their trend of slow, but steady improvement. Like the State Leaders, they too have been victim to being taken down in early September, but going on to win National Titles (see Saratoga's loss to Union Catholic on 9/23). But they moved ahead of an East Aurora team that was well clear of them at McQuaid at their admittedly flat League Championship. East Aurora has a stellar top four, and with improvement to their fifth, they are a legitimate shot at making NXN as well. Running in Class C, they are a favorite for their respective State Title.
For the first time in a long time, there is a strong four way battle for two slots to Portland.
