NY Girls Teams
Breakdown: Welcome to unpredictability. By necessity, Manlius is the linchpin between the top three teams. They toppled Liverpool by one point at Sectionals, then were defeated by Saratoga by one point at States. Saratoga and Liverpool have not met in competition yet this season. In those regards, the meet should be essentially deadlocked at a three way tie. The biggest difference here is field size. Both of those races had only a maximum of 9 teams, while this race has 19. It favors the teams with tighter compression.
The variability of runners here will determine the outcome of the race. All three teams have had their own variability. The safest bet here would be Saratoga, who ran remarkably similar at both Sectionals and States. While their Speed Ratings didn't change, the finishing positions of the individual runners within the team surely did. However, Saratoga has depth through 6 and 7 that the other two teams don't have. That insurance policy may prove key in a meet this close.
For both Manlius and Liverpool, who rely on their Top 5 more heavily, a single off-day for an athlete can swing the meet. Both teams would have won their respective losses had they had a more seasonally-consistent race through their Top 5. Regionals will come down to who best can control that variability on a potentially muddy day.
At-Large Potential: As with NE Boys, there seems to be talk that this region may have potential for an At-Large. These are never guaranteed, and a poor performance at Regionals may be enough to erase a season's resume. We've seen teams get left behind before from NY that were considered strong candidates (see Burnt Hills Boys last year), so anything can happen.
Girls 5000 Meter Run Team Scores
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Team Pts 1 2 3 4 5 (6) (7)
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1 Saratoga Springs 85 2 5 17 30 31 48 70
Total Time: 1:28 Average: 17.60 1-5 Split: 30
2 Fayetteville-Manlius 99 3 7 15 24 50 52 67
Total Time: 1:41 Average: 20.10 1-5 Split: 47
3 Liverpool 102 4 10 13 29 46 68 83
Total Time: 1:44 Average: 20.80 1-5 Split: 42
4 Niskayuna 163 12 34 38 39 40 53 -
Total Time: 2:48 Average: 33.60 1-5 Split: 28
5 Shenendehowa 188 16 18 49 51 54 58 65
Total Time: 3:10 Average: 38.00 1-5 Split: 37
6 North Rockland 196 1 8 57 64 66 72 85
Total Time: 3:16 Average: 39.20 1-5 Split: 1:05
7 Greenwich 202 11 33 41 43 74 90 94
Total Time: 3:27 Average: 41.40 1-5 Split: 1:03
8 Monroe-Woodbury 210 28 32 44 47 59 84 102
Total Time: 3:32 Average: 42.40 1-5 Split: 31
9 John Jay Cross River 247 19 42 55 56 75 118 120
Total Time: 4:10 Average: 50.00 1-5 Split: 56
10 Bethlehem Central 257 21 26 45 61 104 109 111
Total Time: 4:21 Average: 52.20 1-5 Split: 1:24
11 Corning 293 14 36 71 77 95 116 -
Total Time: 4:58 Average: 59.60 1-5 Split: 1:21
12 Tappan Zee 321 9 37 88 89 98 99 103
Total Time: 5:26 Average: 1:05.20 1-5 Split: 1:29
13 Commack 324 23 27 73 87 114 121 -
Total Time: 5:30 Average: 1:06.00 1-5 Split: 1:33
14 Sachem East 349 22 60 79 92 96 108 125
Total Time: 5:53 Average: 1:10.60 1-5 Split: 1:14
15 Camden 359 6 63 80 86 124 - -
Total Time: 6:04 Average: 1:12.80 1-5 Split: 2:01
16 East Aurora 394 25 69 93 97 110 115 119
Total Time: 6:38 Average: 1:19.60 1-5 Split: 1:27
17 Manhasset 403 62 76 78 81 106 123 -
Total Time: 6:48 Average: 1:21.60 1-5 Split: 46
18 Ursuline School 421 20 82 100 107 112 - -
Total Time: 7:08 Average: 1:25.60 1-5 Split: 1:33
19 Baldwinsville 445 35 91 101 105 113 117 122
Total Time: 7:33 Average: 1:30.60 1-5 Split: 1:20