Summary: The numbers for the CHSAA guys' race all seem to be going Xavier's way. With a somewhat better speed rating and tighter compression than its three main rivals and with Oliver Branham-Upton, Owen Hassler, and Michael Tuffey in the CHSAA's top 10 plus Ethan Rice and Michael O'Brien in the top 20, there does not seem to be any likely way for the Knights to lose if they run to form. So after not having won a championship in 85 years prior to 2016, Xavier looks pretty good to extend its winning streak to three.

The chief competition for the Knights is projected to be Archbishop Molloy, which finished 2nd to Xavier in the NY-BQ CHSAA race by 13 points. The Stanners have a strong top trio of NY-BQ CHSAA winner James Loeffel, John Loeffel, and John Ostling on the lead, and they could keep this race close if 4-5 guys Demir Degirmenci and Matisse Barreira can move up a little bit. In a virtual tie for the 3rd spot are St. Anthony's and Monsignor Farrell. The Friars have the strongest top two of Matthew Payamps and Brendan Dearie on the lead, but injuries have have hampered St. Anthony's this year and it will need a return to health by a couple of runners to make a strong attempt for the title. Monsignor Farrell is led by Christopher Paxis and its pack has by far the best compression among the top teams, so the Lions should be scoring well above what their speed ratings would indicate. The score for the top four teams from a virtual compilation of speed ratings gives the following:

1. Xavier 56,  2. Archbishop Molly 76,  3. St. Anthony's 97,  4. Monsignor Farrell 97. 

Last year's projections were 44-67 for Xavier over St. Anthony's and the actual score was 35-65 as the Knights put the hammer down. There were a few top runners on some teams that were held out of their sectional races but who had run in their team's previous race, so we counted them as part of the lineup. There are also a few runners who have been absent for many weeks and who we did not count but who might possibly return.

Beyond the battle among the top four teams, there should also be a good contest between Iona Prep, Regis and Chaminade for a spot in the top 5. The Gaels have the best speed rating among the three, but Chaminade and Regis have much tighter packs and will likely be locked most closely in the fight for 5th.

The top runner for the individual title will be Matthew Payamps, who will be seeking to replace last year's Friar teammate Mason Gatewood as the winner. There's a lot of guys grouped a short way behind Payamps, with James Loeffel, Owen Hassler, and Oliver Branham-Upton who were 1-2-3 at NY-BQ CHSAA, Brendan Dearie who was 2nd at NSCHSAA, and Pedro Bravo who was 3rd at Westchester County all being in the hunt.