Mid-Season Musings - At-Large Bids, Depth Of The State, All-Time Potential & More

Girls Team Report

Just as it was for the Boys, the Girls competition at McQuaid shed light on some of the matchups we're expected to relive later in the season.  Shenendehowa and Liverpool got their first head-to-head mathcup of the season.  Assuming Saratoga doesn't play spoiler to the party (they very well could), these two teams will be fighting for a podium spot at NXR-NY.  In a New York only merge of McQuaid, Shen scores 74 points to Liverpool's 101.  It seems to be a clear cut decision as to who should be favored, but there are some questions.

Each team has a better 4th person than they showed at McQuaid.  For Shen, sophomore Hannah Belleville has been running much better in her local dual meets than has showed at McQuaid.  Averaging about a 119 Speed Rating over three weeks of Dual Meets, we can assume she may progress to 120+ by the end of the season.  Let's add her in at 120 for argument's sake.  Likewise, Liverpool has been missing Windsor Ardner, who was even with their third, Natalie Kurz, at VVS.  Assuming she has the same rate of improvement as Kurz, we can add her in as Liverpool's 4th girl, at a 119.  Again, the projections now change.  Liverpool is a lot closer.  With the strength of their 1-2 punch, in a field of deeper athletes in the front, with weak teams behind them at Regionals, the pair are almost even.  This all assumes constant rate of improvement, and many potentials, but the race is still close.

At- Large Bid?

The fact that these two teams will be battling for a podium spot is also making a very large assumption.  Fayetteville-Manlius is the defending National Champs, but didn't look as such at the Pre-State Invite.  If FM runs like that again, they would be the ones on the outside looking in.  However, there were some unique things about their Pre-State outing, that differed from the week before at VVS, where they looked less irregular.  It was the first time on record that they had doubled back Invites in the month of September.  It was also the earliest in the season we had ever seen them at an Out-of-Section Invitational.  It was also the hottest Saturday Invite on record in the month of September since the turn of the century.  More will be revealed at the Manhattan Invite.

As for At-Large bids?  It would seem less likely for NY to receive one than it does for the boys.  Last year, to the amazement, Shoreham-Wading River was passed by for an At-Large bid.  They went on to win the 4xMile and 4x800m at Indoor and Outdoor Nationals, proving they were truly overlooked.  So far, none of the potential teams are better than the SWR team of last year.  Although bids happen in the vacuum of the particular year, here are the ratings that were passed by from SWR last year.  Three teams would need to surpass that to be in consideration.

2016 Season Bests

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