Mid-Season Musings - At-Large Bids, Depth Of The State, All-Time Potential & More

Boys Team Report

McQuaid marked the first time in the season where every potential boys candidate for States had hit a major invitational.  In the merge, it was a Burnt Hills team that took the crown, by quite a commanding lead.  In a field of 2500 runners, Burnt Hills came away with only 136 points, 83 points ahead of the next best team, and 100 points ahead of the next best New York team, Corning.  The quick rise of 5th man Nick Hunziker changed the game for the Spartans of Section 2.  Had Hunziker matched the 158 Speed Rating of their 5th man from the week before, the merge would have Burnt Hills only 9 points ahead of St. Xavier (Cin) of Ohio.  Burnt Hills now stands as US #4, based on last week's Speed Rating National Merge.

But it wasn't all roses for Burnt Hills, as there was a silent success behind them.  Corning ran very well to take third overall in the merge.  Even more impressively, they did so without their #1 runner, Quinn Nicholson.  The senior has most likely been quietly nursing back an injury after his debut race of 172 at the Houghton Invite.  It was a strong debut for Nicholson, bettering the year before, where he ended up at 183 by the end of the season.  If you add him back into the scoring at McQuaid, look what happens in the merge below.  All of a sudden, the role of top team in the State is a lot closer than it was before.

What Does This Mean Nationally?

All of a sudden, the New York boys are back on the scene Nationally.  With Nicholson added in, Corning moves to 5th in the Speed Rating National Merge.  While only a hypothetical at this point, it provides two New York teams with strong cases at NXR-NY.  But what about the rest of the State.  Fayetteville-Manlius hasn't raced for two weeks, with presumably their next race coming in two more weeks, at Manhattan.  Ithaca is still a decent team on the rise in New York, after getting ranked third overall in the State in last week's rankings.  Northport, Niskayuna, and Smithtown all have potential as well to rise in the ranks.

Does this mean New York is ready to challenge for an At-Large bid for NXN?  Currently, Manlius is the highest ranked team outside the Top 2 (again, Corning is based on Nicholson's return), and is ranked 13th in the country in the Speed Rating National Merge.  If they get better, and if they knock out one of those top teams, we'll be in a similar situation to where we were in 2014.  Then, New York went 1, 4, 8 at NXN.  Right now, we are 4, 5, and 13.  Below, we listed out the Speed Ratings of the last time NY Boys got an At-Large bid.  Keep in mind, the average Speed Ratings of Boys Teams Nationally have been on the decline over the past few years.

Could we see another three teams at NXN?

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