Girls State of the Action
How we Got Here
After a warmer than average summer, teams were looking towards a condensed Invitational season. Traditionally, the Pre-State, McQuaid, Manhattan circuit each comes with a week gap between, providing the perfect opportunity for all-out racing. In 2016, those three meets were back-to-back, thinning out some of the competition.
Jessica Lawson (Corning) was the biggest story to come out of the invitational season, able to one-up her 2015 campaign that culminated with the Manhattan course record. One year later, she shattered her course record from her sectional course, then went on to improve with a course record at McQuaid. She now holds ever major course record in NYS, minus one (Bowdoin Park, but more on that later).
The biggest team story of the early season would be the schedule of Saratoga. Racing only two Invitationals so far (one in August in Virginia, and another mid-September in Georgia), they have not raced against any New York competition in 2016 (besides duals). Still, their lead girl, Kelsey Chmiel, looks as fit as ever, and a fine challenger to Lawson for the Class A title. It might be the longest we've ever had a top team in the state not run an invitational in-state, instead gathering their required meets through their duals schedule.
Where We Go From Here
Championship season is on the horizon, with post-season not far behind it. Below, I take a look at some of the big questions.
Race to Watch For
NYS Class C
Why: Mattituck. Saranac. CBA-Syracuse. Not typically the names you associate with those in the hunt for a state team title. With the landscape so dominated between East Aurora, Bronxville, and Greenwich over the last decade, there has been little room for a shift in power. In 2016, East Aurora has moved to Class B, while Greenwich has dropped to Class D. Bronxville is still very much in the mix, but will no longer be the favorite heading into the state meet. If Mattituck were to win the State title, it would be the third ever team title for a Suffolk County school in State Meet History. For Saranac, it would be the first team title ever for Section 7! A lot is at stake here.
Will the Real NY #2 Please Stand Up?
With Nike Cross Nationals having it's own region for New York, the State Rankings are given a little extra meaning. Who makes up the Top 5 in the State gives a good indication of who could in contention for the two auto-spots at NXN, and a third at-large very possible. As has been the past ten years, Manlius looks like the team at the top (although more vulnerable than past years.) We take a look at who makes up the chase for the next auto-slot.
- Saratoga is the obvious pick, as they have been in this position the past ten years. However, it's been harder to judge this year. Applying Speed Ratings to dual meets and out-of-state performances is fine, and allows them to show in our National Merge, but it makes you wonder if we have seen their full strength. With a Shenendehowa team on the rise, that missed going to the State meet two years ago on a tie-breaker, we'll get a glimpse at the Blue Streaks soon enough at their conference champs.
- North Rockland took home third last year at NXR, earning them their first ever At-Large invitation. They're back once again with almost exactly the same team. However, this is a different year. Their number 1 (Katelyn Tuohy) has moved forward, now in contention for an individual title. Number three Haleigh Morales has moved even with Alex Harris, both now right around the 128 range. That was good enough to get them third at NXR last year, but the fate looks to be resting in 4-5. Those positions took a big jump from sub-100 speed ratings up through States, to the mid 110's at regionals. The same will need to happen in 2016, or else they could be caught by a fast closing field.
- Shenendehowa was a team on the mend in 2015. After getting the At-Large in 2014, they were set to be at the top again in 2015. However, injuries to key scoring members side-lined that rise. With Hannah Reale back in action for 2016, they are slowly making a case for themselves. In our hypothetical Sec 1 Coaches merge, they were only four points off North Rockland. More locally, with two girls in the mid 130's, it negates Saratoga's top girl at 153 if Toga's number 2 is at 120. From there, it'll be a grudge match at Sectionals between the 4-5 from Toga and Shen to determine who goes to States, and who is favored at NXR.
- Shoreham-Wading River is the biggest question of the competition. They have the third best Top3 in the State (behind FM and North Rockland), but also have a 115 in fourth. Their fifth is at 95 currently, which is just shy of North Rockland. If their fifth takes any sort of jump to the 110's, they very likely could be looking at an auto-slot.
Will Foot Locker be Diluted?
In 2016, we may have an unprecedented situation. The Top 6 girls in New York State, all who have a strong chance of cracking a 150 speed rating by the end of the season, if not already, all represent teams who are in a strong contention to qualify at NXR as a team. Of the three, Kelsey Chmiel, Katleyn Tuohy, and Claire Walters are from teams who are almost certainly doing NXR. With Shoreham looking as strong as they do, its reasonable we'll see Katherine Lee at Bowdoin. Webster Thomas is another strong team in NY, so it lends to the idea that Amanda Vestri will do NXR as well.
That leaves Jessica Lawson, with a decision of where to go. Lawson went to NXN as a freshman (Portland Meadows), and then Foot Locker the next two years. It would stand to reason that her experience at Foot Locker would make it the easy choice. Not so fast. There are several reasons why Lawson might end up at NXR in 2016. First, while her girls team looks to have the potential to be in the mix with moderate improvement, the Corning boys team looks solid. Going to a National meet with the potential of teammates can be alluring. Next, Lawson best races of this year and last year happened at Chenango Valley. The golf course at NXN is almost exactly the same layout as Chenango, making for an easier transition across the country. Also, it would make her one of the only girls to ever run on all three National Courses (Portland Meadows, Balboa, and Glendoveer). And finally, it would give Lawson another shot at the Bowdoin course record, the last one standing remaining untouched by her in New York State. It will be interesting to see which option she chooses, when the time comes.
Who is the Sleeper Pick for Post-Season?
Every year, there is one athlete who sneaks up in the post-season, to book their flight out west. They may not have been in the Top 5 in their class at the State Meet, may have been sick in the latter part of the season, or just may have a great race at the right time. Who do we say be on the lookout for? Our pick is Brianna O'Brien of Wheatley. Averaging a 136 speed rating throughout the season, O'Brien hasn't left Long Island all season. Her only loss so far comes at the hands of Katherine Lee, who was only 25secs further up at Sunken Meadow. Whether it be Foot Locker or NXR, O'Brien could make a big jump to land her one more week of competition.