The Top Trio:

This could very well be more exciting than the guys Class A race.  In my mind, there are five legitimate challengers to the throne vacated by Megan Reilly.  Bella Burda has been running as good as ever, winning the Section 10 Pre-State over Jessica Lawson, then continuing to dominate over every course after.  Burda is a strength runner, keeping a solid pace throughout the race, relying on aerobic fitness.  Jessica Lawson, as demonstrated in both Indoor and Outdoor track, has a deadly kick.  She is able to sit on the leaders for most of the race, then blow past in the final stretches.  However, as proven by her win in Section 3, Carly Benson may have equal, or even greater finishing speed than anyone else in the state.  With all three equal at the baseball field, Benson would be a safe bet to take for the greatest kick. 

The Wildcards

Not to mention the inclusion of the unpredictable Annika Avery, who has used the strength technique to win regionals in 2013, and the kick technique to take second at Manhattan.  Abbey Wheeler rounds out the top 5, knowing how to race Lawson after weeks of practice, and certified speed on the XC course.

1   Bella Burda           12   01-A    Arlington              150
2   Jessica Lawson        10   04-A    Corning                148
3   Carly Benson          9    03-A    West Genesee           144
4   Abbey Wheeler         11   04-A    Elmira District        142
5   Annika Avery          12   03-A    FM                     139
6   Samantha Levy         11   03-A    FM                     138
7   Danielle Jordan       11   02-A    Shenendehowa           136
8   Alex Cooper           12   05-A    Rush-Henrietta         135
9   Anna Flynn            11   01-A    Ursuline               135
10  Rachel Ludwikowski    10   01-A    Suffern                135
11  Kathryn Munks         11   09-A    Monroe-Woodbury        133
12  Jenna Farrell         11   03-A    FM                     133
13  Peyton Engborg        9    02-A    Saratoga               133
14  Julia Zachgo          10   02-A    Shenendehowa           133
15  Natalie Rogus         12   04-A    Corning                133

The Matchup

In a bit of irony, Class A seems to have reverse fortunes for Fayetteville-Manlius.  Last weekend, while their boys team faced a US-Top 5 ranked team, the girls could take it easy, and still qualify.  One week later, and the tables have turned.  The boys have the easier race, while the girls will take on US-Top 5 Saratoga.  Saratoga has been consistently good at SPAC, and put up numbers to prove it, winning on a tie-breaker at Sectionals.  It could be argued that their numbers are so good at SPAC because that is where they train every day, but they also showed sparks at Shaker.  Another argument could be that they race much better in the cold, which would explain lower ratings at Queensbury (unseasonably warm) and Great American (North Carolina).  Whatever the argument is, they have a real shot at the title this weekend.  Fayetteville-Manlius has been good on shorter courses (Manhattan, Bville), while has seen some fluctuation on longer courses (McQuaid, Sectionals).  However,  Manlius is a championship team that knows how to perform when it counts.  The score below is not reflective of what we think will happen.  Annika Avery of FM was running with a fever at Sectionals, and with her return to health, the score will be much closer.  Each team has had on-weekends, and off-weekends.  The race will be decided by which teams are able to reach their potential.

The History

Fayetteville-Manlius isn't the only team with championship experience.  FM has won the last 8 State Class A titles.  Before that, Saratoga had won 9 Class A titles in 10 years.  It seems the power shifts in one direction or the other every decade or so.  The race should be a good fight, where both teams know what is at stake.

The Challengers

Behind the top two rests a deep pack of teams that could very well capture a title in most other states.  Suffern has a very strong Top 3 punch, while Corning is very impressive through 4 runners.  Monroe-Woodbury is a balanced squad, and all three will be within striking range.

                      Varsity Girls 5000 Meter Run Team Scores                       
=====================================================================================
    Team                        Pts     1    2    3    4    5   (6)  (7)
=====================================================================================
  1 Saratoga Springs            55      5    7   10   16   17   24   25  
      Total Time: 55      Average: 11.00      1-5 Split: 12
  2 Fayetteville-Manlius        63      2    6   14   19   22   27   28  
      Total Time: 1:03      Average: 12.60      1-5 Split: 20
  3 Corning                     87      1    4   18   26   38   42   53  
      Total Time: 1:30      Average: 18.00      1-5 Split: 40
  4 Monroe Woodbury             97      3    9   21   31   33   34   50  
      Total Time: 1:41      Average: 20.20      1-5 Split: 32
  5 Suffern                     104    11   12   13   32   36   58    -  
      Total Time: 1:49      Average: 21.80      1-5 Split: 28
  6 Sachem East                 148     8   20   35   37   48   52   54  
      Total Time: 2:37      Average: 31.40      1-5 Split: 43
  7 Webster Thomas              186    23   29   30   49   55   59   61  
      Total Time: 3:16      Average: 39.20      1-5 Split: 35
  8 Syosset                     213    40   41   43   44   45   46   51  
      Total Time: 3:48      Average: 45.60      1-5 Split: 5
  9 Williamsville North         214    15   39   47   56   57   60   62  
      Total Time: 3:46      Average: 45.20      1-5 Split: 45