#3 - The Sunken Meadow Slowdown
The Streak
Since Hurricane Sandy in 2012, no boys have broken 16mins on the course, and only three girls have broken 19mins. While Sunken Meadow is one of the slowest courses in the State, the rate at which new additions to the All-Time list have been added has all but dried up. The last two boys under 16mins were Ryan Udvadia (Shoreham) at 15:57.10 in 2012, and Mikey Brannigan (Northport) at 15:56.30, four days before the landfall of Hurricane Sandy. Brannigan would break the mark once in 2013, at 15:58.16, but it was on a temporary layout, some which would call harder. But nonetheless, the boys have been hard pressed to break 16mins for 5k since.
As for the girls, there has been only marginally more additions. Katherine Lee (Shoreham) managed to dip under twice in 2016, while Brianna O'Brien (Wheatley) got under once. Before that, it was only Daniella LoCastro (Cold Spring Harbor) under in 2015, and then the streak goes back to 2012 with Tiana Guevera (Miller Place). As of right now, only 44 boys have broken 16mins, while 80 girls have gone under 19mins in course history.
The Challengers
Things could speed up for Sunken Meadow, for this reason alone: States will be coming back to the course in 2018. Teams looking to get a leg up on next year will begin to filter into the local invitationals, hopefully adding some top end depth. And if not this year, then next year will bring back a slew of All-Time greats to a course that hasn't hosted the State Meet since 2008.
The Other Side
Local coaches give many reasons as to why the course has slowed down in recent years. Many cite the effect Hurricane Sandy had to the course. There is said to be more sand on the trails than ever before. Others look at the fact that many dual and division meets have been moved to other courses in recent years, making teams less knowledgeable on how to approach the course. Some suggest there has been a decrease in Long Island dominance in the sport, citing decreasing team numbers, and many teams not opting to practice at the park. For whatever reason, the course will need some outside help to start running as fast as it used to, and that all depends if teams want to test it out a year early.
#4 - Only One Federation Champ Has Ever Won NXN-NY Individually
The Streak
It's
been called the "Kiss of Death" for post-season plans in recent years.
Only one person in the past 8 years has ever beaten the "Federation
Curse." Since 2008, almost every Federation Individual Champion has been
unable to come back and win the NXN-NY Individual Title. It doesn't
matter if there is a two week gap between races, a one week gap, or who
else is in the race. Athletes like Mary Cain (Bronxville), Mikey Brannigan (Northport), and Aidan Tooker (Saratoga) have all won Federation Titles, but come up short the following
race. Before the regional, Steve Murdock took third in 2006, then came
back and won the entire NXN Individual Race in his next outing. Teams
don't fare much better, although it is more skewed by who does or does
not show up to Feds. North Rockland girls won in 2016, but didn't make NXN.
John Jay-Cross River had the same happen in 2013.
There is one shimmering glimmer of hope, however. Bella Burda of Arlington managed to break the curse. In 2012, she won the Federation meet, but was runner up at Regionals to Mary Cain. Two years later, Burda once again was the Fed Champ, but this time, she defeated Jess Lawson (Corning) by 4-seconds to win the NXN-NY Regional Title, the first and only ever to win both in a single year.
The Challenger
Last year, Kelsey Chmiel was the odds-on favorite all season, in any race she entered. She broke the SPAC course record, won the State Meet Merge by nearly 20-seconds. She moved on to a Federation Individual Title, and looked to repeat at NXN-NY. However, Katherine Lee, the Class B State Champion, had other plans, and became the 5th fastest girl ever at Bowdoin Park to win the Regional. Both girls are back in 2017. But will they again choose the same race? If Katherine Lee chooses to go the Foot Locker route, then the Regional Title becomes that much easier for Chmiel. However, both may choose to go to Foot Locker, which would leave the title wide open for someone like Katelyn Tuohy (North Rockland) to complete the sweep.
The Other Side
With
Nathan Lawler (Pittsford-Mendon), the top boy returner, skipping out on Feds last year, it
would be safe to say we might not see the pattern break on the boys
side. So that leaves the girls. With the number of high quality
athletes in the state, we could very well see the curse strike again.
It's all about who's entered where.