Team Snapshot Overview
The snapshot view gives the basic info about the Eastern States field listed by general estimated TR (Tully Runners) speed rating averages. For the NY teams, the TR score is fairly precise based on the 2016 action. For outside-of-NY teams, the TR is the score for the team's last big meet and is thus less comprehensive than the NY teams' season-compiled scores. It could miss runners who were not at the selected meet. There are also some teams that have not yet competed in a meet with posted results, and obviously there is a lot of guesswork needed there. Finally, there are some squads that will only be putting one or two runners on the line.
The rankings cited are mainly from MileSplit National or State listings, but also include rankings from coaches' polls in states that do actually post weekly updates for teams that are linked to on the MileSplit sites. Rankings are from the most recent week.
The snapshot listing is not intended to be a prediction of the finish in the race. Some teams are extremely unbalanced with one or two runners at the top and a big gap to following runners, and these teams generally do not finish as high as their estimated TR would indicate, if they are among the top teams where strong packs are good. The balance factor switches for teams in the bottom part of the results though, where having one or two high-flying runners can move a team up. The Spread number following the TR average indicates the gap between the first and fifth runner numbers, with each point equaling about 3 seconds in a 5K race or maybe 2.67 seconds at VCP's 2.5 mile course.
The scores for some out-of-state teams may not include key runners who were not present at the big meet from which the team's score was calculated. TRs are general estimates of team strength, so use them here as just broad indicators of the range in which a team is expected to run. Based on a big database of past results, the TRs serve as remarkably accurate predictors for races that have enough associated team data, and they are many orders of magnitude better than the divining rods that are often used to estimate team strengths..
| Team | 2015 Place | National and Regional Rank | 2016 Action | Speed Rating (TR) | TR Top 5 and Spread ( ) |
| Fayetteville-Manlius | 1st in ES | US#1, NY #1 | 1st in Pre-States (8) | 128.8 | 138-131-126-125-124 (14) |
| North Rockland | 3rd in ES | US#11, NY #3 | 1st in Pre-States (6) | 123.2 | 147-133-128-107-101 (46) |
| Bolles | FL #2 | 1st in Katie Caples | 111.8 | 123-122-119-99-96 (27) | |
| Ridge | NJ #2 | 1st in Shore Coaches (B) | 111.2 | 118-114-112-107-105 (13) | |
| Monroe-Woodbury | 1st in B | NY-A #9 | 1st in Crusader | 107.0 | 112-112-107-103-101 (11) |
| West Genesee | 8th in C | NY-A #11 | 4th in McQuaid AAA | 106.6 | 126-121-116-88-88 (38) |
| Padua Academy | 7th in D | DE #1 | 6th in Paul Short (Brown) | 103.6 | 144-101-96-92-85 (59) |
| Mainland Regional | 5th in South Jersey Shootout | 103.0 | 145-109-94-86-80 (65) | ||
| Champlain Valley | 9th in ES | VT #1 | 1st in Manchester | 102.0 | 117-102-101-99-91 (26) |
| La Salle Academy | 4th in ES | RI #1 | 6th in Great American RoC | 100.8 | 128-102-96-90-88 (40) |
| Benjamin Cardozo | NY-A #23 | 1st in NYC Mayor's Cup - Championship | 98.6 | 118-108-104-96-60 (58) | |
| Sachem East | 7th in ES | NY-A #17 | 1st in Villa Bears | 98.4 | 121-114-93-85-79 (42) |
| Syosset | 5th in ES | NY-A #18 | 2nd in Villa Bears | 98.2 | 125-113-113-77-76 (49) |
| Ridgefield | N/A | 97.6 | 120-102-101-85-80 (40) | ||
| Ward Melville | 6th in D | NY-A #21 | 4th in Ocean State-Champ | 97.0 | 106-103-100-96-86 (20) |
| Tatnall | 3rd in B | DE #2 | 12th in Great American RoC | 94.8 | 130-93-85-84-82 (48) |
| Walter Johnson | 1st in C | MD #1 | 1st in DCXC (merge) | 93.8 | 133-102-86-76-72 (61) |
| Cicero-North Syracuse | 13th in A | NY-A #24 | 4th in Baldwinsville-Large | 93.2 | 116-100-90-80-80 (36) |
| Villa Joseph Maria | 17th in Paul Short-Brown | 88.6 | 98-90-90-84-81 (17) | ||
| Carlisle | 8th in Carlisle-Challenge | 87.6 | 100-90-86-83-79 (21) | ||
| St. Joseph's Cathoilc | 15th in Carlisle-Challenge | 77.8 | 115-99-68-62-45 (70) | ||
| Broughton | NC #13 | 12th in Great American RoC | 76.2 | 96-76-74-73-62 (34) | |
| Pascack Valley | 2nd in Season Opener | 72.8 | 100-75-70-64-55 (45) | ||
| New Paltz | 5th in Brewster-2 | 53.6 | 88-81-53-38-8 (80) |
Team Profiles - by Pole Position on Starting Line
Walter Johnson (MD)
Overview: The Wildcats were winners in the C race last year and now are looking at a top 15 spot in Eastern States.
Roster: Abbey Green (133), Katrione Kirsch (102), Janet Scott (86), Sophia Scobell (76), Sadie Keller (72)
Team Data: 93.8 - 1st in DCXC merge
Comments: Walter Johnson ran big at the DCXC two weeks ago with frontrunner Abbey Green finishing 3rd in the class merge, and for a team with a lot of Manhattan experience, getting up in the fringes of the top 10 placings could be doable if the back half of Wildcat lineup makes a leap.
Broughton (NC)
Overview: The Capitals' girls get to make the trip to Manhattan with the guys this year.
Roster: Savannah Jones (96), Hope Hatfield (76), Sarah Grimes (74), Annabelle Atkinson (73), Anna Simmons (62)
Team Data: 76.2 - 12th in Great American Race of Champions
Comments: Broughton will be running at the back of the pack, but first time experience in Eastern States always leads to better things down the road.
Cicero-North Syracuse (NY)
Overview: The Northstars will be taking on Eastern States after running in the A race last year.
Roster: Annina Marullo (116), Sarah Davis (100), Mia Pestle (90), Megan Trubia (80), Hailee Kolakowski (80), Emily Dombroski (75)
Team Data: 93.2 - 4th in Baldwinsville-Large
Comments: CNS will be trying to raise the bar behind Annina Marullo and Sarah Davis and could get up for a top 15 place.
North Rockland (NY)
Overview: The Red Raiders finished 3rd in Eastern States last year and are looking for an improvement in 2016.
Roster: Katelyn Tuohy (147), Alex Harris (133), Hayleigh Morales (128), Kerry O'Connor (107), Noelle Feeney (101), Britney Pezzimenti (96), Sara Leonard (85)
Team Data: 123.2 - 1st in McDaniel-Baxter Pre-States (4)
Comments: North Rockland rides as the second speed-rated and 3rd ranked team in NY, and with Tuohy, Harris, and Morales running very strongly at the top, the Red Raiders are likely the only team capable of upsetting Fayetteville-Manlius. Harris and Tuohy are the top two returners from last year's field.
Downingtown West (PA)
Overview: The Whippets will be sending one of their top two runners up for the fun.
Roster: Emma Planck (121), Grace Mucha (88), Reagan Flannery (83), Nina Gallagher (78)
Team Data: 101.2 - 5th in Carlisle-Challenge (Note: Downingtown West has notified us that a single runner will be competing, a change from previous status.)
Comments: Emma Planck will be competing for a top 20 place in the race.
Fayetteville-Manlius (NY)
Overview: The Hornets have won the last two Eastern States and NXN national championships, so they will be the big favorites in the race this year.
Roster: Claire Walters (138), Sophie Ryan (131), Palmer Madsen (126), Phoebe White (125), Rebecca Walters (124), Reilly Madsen (106), Alex Villalba (100)
Team Data: 128.8 - 1st in McDanie-Baxter Pre-States (8) and merge
Comments: FM is again the top ranked team in NY despite substantial losses from last year's national champs, and the rebuilding effort is going very strong with Claire Walters and Sophie Ryan currently on the lead. The Hornets' main challenge will likely come from North Rockland.
Padua (DE)
Overview: The Pandas are the top rated team in Delaware and are switching over to the Eastern States race after running in the A race last year.
Roster: Lydia Olivere (144), Maddie Olivere (101), Alicia Lenoir (96), Hannah Apostolico (92), Victoria Steinhoff (85)
Team Data: 103.6 - 6th in Paul Short (Brown)
Comments: Padua has run up among the top teams in big meets recently at Paul Short and Carlisle, and with Lydia Olivere shooting for a 1st in Eastern States, the Pandas should be up among the top 10 teams.
La Salle Academy (RI)
Overview: The Rams are the top team in Rhode Island and finished 4th in Eastern States last year.
Roster: Grace Connolly (128), Alyson Walsh (102), Emily Kane (96), Emily Wilson (90), Gabriella Celico (88)
Team Data: 100.8 - 6th in Great American Race of Champions
Comments: The Rams lost a lot from last year's team after the graduation of Eliza Rego and Karina Tavares and 5 of their top 7, so getting back to last year's heady level will be a challenge. With Grace Connolly at the front, La Salle should be able looking for a top 10 finish.
West Genesee (NY)
Overview: The Wildcats are jumping into the Eastern States race this year after running in the A race last year, and they should be finishing in the top 10
Roster: Carly Benson (126), Emily Young (121), Mia Mitchell (116), Hannah Craybus (88), Hannah Craybas (88), Elizabeth Morey (80), Kendall Dombroske (79)
Team Data: 106.6 - 4th in McQuaid AAA
Comments: West Genesee has been developing nicely this year behind a top 3 of Carly Benson, Emily Young, and Mia Mitchell, and with some more movement at the back the Wildcats could have a shot at a top 5 place in Eastern States.
Mainland Regional (NJ)
Overview: The Mustangs are running with Alyssa Aldridge as one of the favorites for the individual title.
Roster: Alyssa Aldridge (146), Emily Dirkes (109), Emily Forrester (94), Grace Kennedy (86), Gabby Boggs (80)
Team Data: 103.0 - 5th in Cherokee Shootout
Comments: Mainland is solidly in the top 10 of the teams in the field based on speed ratings and have Alyssa Aldridge vying for a win, but the Mustangs will need a big surge at the back to finish in the top 10 in a tough cast of teams.
New Paltz (NY)
Overview: The Huguenots are rated as the final team in the field, but Eastern States should be a fun experience.
Roster: Jordan Nagel (95), Abigail Gravatt (89), Willa Butler (53), Andie Caroll (38), Grace Holod (8)
Team Data: 56.6 - 5th in Brewster Bear-2
Comments: New Paltz will be trying to pick off some teams ahead of it to get on the fringes of the top 20.
Germantown Academy (PA)
Overview: The Patriots will be represented in Eastern States by frontrunner Abbe Goldstein.
Roster: Abbe Goldstein (132 or 109)
Team Data: N/A
Comments: Goldstein won the George School race by 40 seconds but then was well back in the Paul Short-Brown race, so its hard to say where she is at right now. She was 19th in the Foot Locker NE race last year.
Annapolis (MD)
Overview: The Panthers will be sending last year's 7th place Eastern States finisher Maria Coffin to try for a title again this year
Roster: Maria Coffin (143)
Team Data: N/A
Comments: Maria Coffin enters Eastern States as one of the top 4 rated runners in the field and the 3rd best returning finisher from last year's race, so she should be in the running for a championship.
Our Lady of Lourdes (NY)
Overview: The Warriors' Caroline Timm will be looking for a top 10 place in Eastern States.
Roster: Caroline Timm (134)
Team Data: N/A
Comments: Caroline Timm has run undefeated this year in lighter competition, though she faced the runners from North Rockland and Monroe-Woodbury in the leg-stretcher Red Raider meet, so now she has the chance to get up among the best in a big meet.
Bolles (FL)
Overview: The girls from the Sunshine State are rated #2 in Florida, and they should be running among the top 5 in Eastern States.
Roster: Cailtin Collier (123), Ally Hajda (122), Rachel Shapiro (119), Aoife O'Riordan (99), Ella Mickler (96)
Team Data: 111.8 - 1st in Katie Caples Invite
Comments: If the Bulldogs can get up to NY for Eastern States, they should be up among the top finishing teams. Collier, Hadja, and Shapiro give Bolles one of the best threesomes at the top in this field, and the back of the line is strong enough to keep Bolles in contention for a top 5 spot.
Monroe-Woodbury (NY)
Overview: The Crusaders won last year's C race and should finish very high up in Eastern States.
Roster: Annie Kurdziel (112), Jessica Pidgeon (112), Daniela Napoli (107), Kierstan Kral (103), Sarah Kern (101), Rachel Hirschkind (99), Abbey Kimbrel (97)
Team Data: 107.0 - 1st in Crusader
Comments: The Crusaders always seem to be pretty deep with nice compression that helps them beat out teams with overall higher speed ratings. With Annie Kurdziel and Jessica Pidgeon currently on the lead, MW looks well set for a top 5 place.
Ridgefield (CT)
Overview: The Tigers have yet to run yet this year but should be one of CT's better teams.
Roster: Ava Kelley (120), Julia Hergenrother (102), Rachel Maue (101), Sophia Hoban (85), Kelsey Bordash (80)
Team Data: 97.6 - N/A
Comments: Ridgefield finished 3 in the state's CIAC Championship last year and have three of the top 5 back, so the Tigers should do well in Eastern States.
Carlisle (PA)
Overview: The Thundering Herd girls are joining their high-flying guys to make a little noise at Manhattan this year.
Roster: Gracen Cabral (100), Savannah Hossfield (90), Julia Ledgett (86), Addy Jastron (83), Haily Midgley (79)
Team Data: 87.6 - 8th in Carlisle
Comments: Carlisle's girls don't have the power of the Thundering Herd guys, but they should be able to get up for a top 20 finish.
Sachem East (NY)
Overview: The Flaming Arrows finished 7th in last year's Eastern States.
Roster: Lindsey Dodenhoff (121), Rachel Ruggiero (114), Melissa Merone (93), Lauren Harris (85), Chelsea Benedict (79), Shayna Arrigo (79), Tiffany Ly (67)
Team Data: 98.4 - 1st in Villa Bears
Comments: Sachem East hasn't run since winning the Villa Bears race at VCP three weeks ago, so it's a little hard to know what to expect. The Flaming Arrows lost their top 2 from last year to graduation, and though Lindsey Dodenhoff and Rachel Ruggiero are filling in nicely in the role of the top tandem, some issues elsewhere may make it a challenge to equal last year's finish in Eastern States.
Champlain Valley (VT)
Overview: The Redhawks are again tops in VT and finished 9th in last year's Eastern States.
Roster: Sophia Gorman (117), Ella Whitman (102), Jennifer Ireland (101), Chloe Andrae (99), Rosalie Lacroix (91)
Team Data: 102.0 - 1st in Manchester
Comments: Champlain Valley is a mainstay in Eastern States and always finishes in the top 10, even getting back to back 5th places in 2011 and 2012.The Redhawks again have a solid pack behind Sophia Gorman, and they should run their streak of top 10 finishes to 6 this year.
St. Joseph's Catholic (PA)
Overview: The Wolves will be running more towards the back of the field in Eastern States.
Roster: Sera Mazza (115), Julia Cusatis (99), Maggie Urban (68), Grace Cousins (62), Lea Fisher (45)
Team Data: 77.8 - 15th in Carlisle-Challenge
Comments: St. Joseph's has had a fairly challenging schedule this year with runs at the PIAA and Carlisle meets, so the Eastern States will up the level a bit more for a team that should place around the 20th place mark.
Tatnall (DE)
Overview: Tatnall returns to Eastern States after winning the race in 2012 and running in the B race last year.
Roster: Keelin Hays (130), Olivia Hardin (93), Lainey Teklits (85), Savannah Pankow (84), Eirinn Sikes (82)
Team Data: 94.8 - 12th in Great American
Comments: Three years ago it was a battle of angry Hornets as Tatnall bested Fayetteville-Manlius in a terrific Eastern States battle, but this year Tatnall will be running further back among the top 20 teams. Keelin Hays is way out in front on the team, and after finishing 8th in the Great American RoC, she should be ready to battle for a top 10 place on Saturday.
Ward Mellville (NY)
Overview: The Patriots move up to Eastern States after running in the A race last year, and they will be battling for a top 15 spot.
Team Data: 97.0 - 4th in Ocean State
Comments: Ward Melville has a fairly solid pack and just needs a little boost in the 5-7 spots to get up on the fringes of the top 10.
Ridge (NJ)
Overview: The Red Devils are the 2nd ranked team in NJ, and they should be in the running for a top 5 place in Eastern States
Roster: Catherine Giuseffi (118), Caitlin Haggard (114), Shayna Bains (112), Claire Jones (107), Amanda Passman (105), Meghan Convery (96)
Team Data: 111.2 - 1st in Shore Coaches (B)
Comments: Ridge finished only behind NJ's top rated North Hunterdon in the huge NJ Shore Coaches race last weekend, and with a very nicely balanced squad behind Catherine Giuseffi who finished 10th in Shore's merge, the Red Devils will be a dangerous team in Eastern States.
Syosset (NY)
Overview: The Braves have not raced since finishing 2nd at Villa Bears three weeks ago, but after a strong 5th last year in Eastern States, nothing would be too surprising for this team.
Roster: Reilly Seibert (125), Lauren White (113), Melissa Esswein (113), Aleena Zaidi (77), Tierney Latham (76), Mayu Iio (68)
Team Data: 98.2 - 2nd in Villa Bears
Comments: It's been a while since we've seen Syosset, so a lot of development could have gone on to raise the back of the group to a higher level. Reilly Seibert finished 9th in last year's meet, and with Lauren White and Melissa Esswein providing great support, the Braves could have another strong showing here.
Pascack Valley (NJ)
Overview: The Indians are giving Eastern States a try and will be running well back.
Team Data: 72.8. 2nd in Season Opener
Comments: Pascack Valley is seizing the chance to run with the big dogs, and it should be fighting for a top 25 place.
Villa Joseph Maria (PA)
Overview: The Jems will be looking to get up for a top 20 place.
Roster: Katie Irelan (98), Briana Kling (90), Carolina Brandt (90), Camila Drobac (84), Abby Zwall (81)
Team Data: 88.6 - 17th in Paul Short-Brown
Comments: The Jems at least are used to crowds after running in a 42 team - 350+ runner field in the Paul Short-Brown race, and they have the make-up to finish among the top 20 teams.
Benjamin Cardozo (NY)
Overview: A late entry, the Judges will be providing Eastern States with a local NYC team and could get up among the top 10 teams.
Roster: Sophia Muccini (118), Lily Cohen (108), Abigail Peters (104), Shalah Means (96), Tatiana Martinez (60)
Team Data: 98.6 - 1st in NYC Mayor's Cup - Championship
Comments: Ben Cardozo won a big race last weekend at Van Cortlandt Park when they captured the Mayor's Cup, and they have a solid enough group at the top plus enough good experience on the course to fight for a top 10 spot, a feat that fellow NYC school Notre Dame of Staten Island just missed last year with an 11th place.