Team Snapshot Overview
The snapshot view gives the basic info about the Eastern States field listed by general estimated TR (Tully Runners) speed rating averages. For the NY teams, the TR score is fairly precise based on the 2015 action. For outside-of-NY teams, the TR is the score for the team's last big meet and is thus less comprehensive than the NY teams' season-compiled scores, and could miss runners who were not at the selected meet. There are also some teams that have not yet competed in a meet with posted results, and obviously there is a lot of guesswork needed there. Finally, as happened with three teams last year, there are some squads that will only be putting one or two runners on the line.
The rankings cited are mainly from MileSplit National or State listings, but also include rankings from coaches' polls in states that do actually post weekly updates for teams that are linked to on the MileSplit sites. Rankings are from the most recent week.
The snapshot listing is not intended to be a prediction of the finish in the race. Some teams are extremely unbalanced with one or two runners at the top and a big gap to following runners, and these teams generally do not finish as high as their estimated TR would indicate, if they are among the top teams where strong packs are good. The balance factor switches for teams in the bottom part of the results though, where having one or two high-flying runners can move a team up. The Spread number following the TR average indicates the gap between the first and fifth runner numbers, with each point equaling about 3 seconds in a 5K race or maybe 2.67 seconds at VCP's 2.5 mile course.
The scores for some out-of-state teams may not include key runners who were not present at the big meet from which the team's score was calculated. TRs are general estimates of team strength, so use them here as just broad indicators of the range in which a team is expected to run. Based on a big database of past results, the TRs serve as remarkably accurate predictors for races that have enough associated team data, and they are many orders of magnitude better than the divining rods that are often used to estimate team strengths.
Seven teams not shown below will be sending 1 or 2 runners to Eastern States: River Dell, Darien, Germantown Academy, Glastonbury, Charlotte Latin School, Stamford, Brien McMahon.
| Team | 2014 Place | National and Regional Rank | Speed Rating (TR) | TR Top 5 and Spread ( ) |
| Fayetteville-Manlius | 1st in ES | US #2 -SRating, NY #1 | 178.8 | 185-182-182-178-167 (18) |
| CBA Lincroft | 4th in ES | US #2, NJ #1 | 178.8 | 190-180-179-173-172 (18) |
| La Salle Academy | RI #1 | 178.4 | 193-188-190-165-156 (37) | |
| Liverpool | 2nd in ES | US#8, NY #3 | 176.6 | 191-179-177-175-166 (25) |
| Downingtown West | US #19-SRating | 176.6 | 189-183-179-167-165 (24) | |
| Broughton | US #20, NC #1 | 175.4 | 189-176-174-170-168 (21) | |
| Pittsford Mendon | NY#4 | 172.8 | 181-173-169-169-166 (15) | |
| Cherry Hill East | 5th in ES | NJ #2 | 172.4 | 188-172-169-167-166 (22) |
| Corning | Ran in C | NY #5 | 172 | 179-179-172-169-163 (16) |
| St. Anthony's | 3rd in ES | NY #7 | 170.4 | 180-178-177-173-163 (17) |
| LaSalle College | 13th in ES | 167.6 | 170-169-167-167-165 (5) | |
| Colts Neck | 3rd in C | NJ #6 | 167.2 | 182-166-166-163-159 (23) |
| Don Bosco Prep | 10th in ES | 167 | 183-174-163-159-156 (27) | |
| Maine-Endwell | NY #10 | 166 | 188-169-165-159-149 (39) | |
| Germantown Friends | 164.6 | 181-170-163-158-151 (30) | ||
| Guilderland | 1st in D | 164.4 | 180-161-161-141-143 (37) | |
| Danbury | CT #1 | 164 | 175-167-163-158-157 (18) | |
| Tatnall | 11th in ES | DE #5 | 164 | 176-170-165-157-152 (24) |
| Charter | 20th in ES | DE #2 | 163.4 | 183-169-164-156-145 (38) |
| Shenendehowa | 8th in ES | 162.6 | 167-167-165-160-156 (11) | |
| Carthage | 162.2 | 197-184-148-147-146 (51) | ||
| Mount Tabor | NC #2 | 161.8 | 170-166-160-157-156 (14) | |
| Patriot | 159.8 | 166-164-160-156-153 (13) | ||
| Needham | 159.6 | 166-164-161-155-152 (14) | ||
| Millburn | 8th in A | 158.6 | 166-165-158-154-150 (16) | |
| Salesianum | 2nd in D | 158.2 | 177-173-151-146-144 (33) | |
| Sachem East | 3rd in G | 158 | 163-160-155-142-135 (28) | |
| Fordham Prep | 6th in ES | 154.6 | 190-173-167-155-150 (40) | |
| High Point | 152.4 | 182-150-148-142-140 (42) | ||
| McDonough School | 149.8 | 176-172-136-135-130 (46) | ||
| Colonie | 3rd in F | 146.6 | 178-138-131-129-127 (51) |
Team Profiles - by Pole Position on Starting Line
Germantown Friends (PA)
Overview: The Tigers should be among the middle pack of teams trying to fight for a top half finish in the Eastern States.
Roster: Nick Dahl (181), Grayson Hepp (170), Gordon Goldstein (163), Zach Goldberg (158), Dan Stassen (151)
Team Data: 164.6. Finished 4th in Bowdoin-1 race.
Comments: Dahl was the top guy in the Bowdoin-1 race two weeks ago that featured CBA-Lincroft, so he can definitely contend with the best.
Tatnall (DE)
Overview: The Hornets appear to be set within the top 20 teams in Eastern States with a chance to pull in a top 15 place.
Roster: Joey Garrett (176), Michael Flanagan (170), Brad Keen (165), Adam McFoy (157), Noah McFoy (152)
Team Data: 164. 2nd in Oberod.
Comments: The last big meet for Tatnall appears to have been in mid September, so a well-rested team led by Joey Garrett will have a chance move up.
La Salle College (PA)
Overview: The Explorers are running a ways behind their namesakes from RI, but their pack should be battling for a spot in the top 15 in Eastern Sates.
Roster: Brendan Price (167), Stephen Paul (167), Eddie Goebel (165), Pat Grant (170), Frank Livolsi (162), Evan Addison (169)
Team Data: 167.6. 2nd in PIAA-Gold
Comments: So far, La Salle appears to be the ultimate in pack teams with a mind-boggling 15 second gap (5 TR points) among their top 5, a situation that could help them push on well through Van Cortlandt's tough back hills.
Broughton (NC)
Overview: The Capitals are the top team in NC and rated among the top 35 in the US, so they will be aiming at a top 5 place in Eastern States, with maybe a chance to make the really big statement.
Roster: Jeremy Brown (189), Robbie Simmons (176), Lanier Derbyshire (174), Ryan Brown (170), Andrew Brooks (168)
Team Data: 175.4. Placed 2nd in adidas XC Challenge-Champ
Comments: Because of the Great American wash out, Broughton has not had a top meet to run at since being edged by Marietta with the best time average in the adidas XC Challenge in Cary, NC three weeks ago. Led by high-flying US Top-35 rated Jeremy Brown, the Capitals should be ready to challenge for a title in Eastern States.
Fayetteville-Manlius
Overview: The Hornets are the reigning Eastern States and NXN Nationals champs, and they will be fighting to defend the ES title as one of the teams at the top of the speed ratings charts.
Roster: Pete Ryan (185), Bryan Geeher (182), Patrick Perry (182), Joe Walters (178), Ben Otis (167)
Team Data: 178.8. 1st in Baldwinsville-Large
Comments: This is the national champs' first meet of the season with national importance, which can be the only reason anyone can think of for their bizarrely low "official" national rankings, so though the Hornets don't usually go into full flight mode until mid November, expect a big performance in the race as they try to hold off all challengers to the title in the huge field.
Christian Brothers Academy (NJ)
Overview: The US #2 Colts' aura of invicibility at Eastern States finally lost a little of its aura after a 4th place finish last year, but camped at or near the top of the national rankings this year pending the arrival of frontrunner Blaise Ferro who finished 5th here in 2014, CBA should again be one of the top favorites in Eastern States.
Roster: Blaise Ferro? Drake Anzano (180), Jon Dooling (179), Noah Yuro (173), Paul Knepple (172), Nick Trigani (172), Brian Hill (170), Brian Dengler (169)
Team Data: 178.8. 1st in NJ Shore Coaches-A1, 1st in Bowdoin-1
Comments: The Colt's luster as the nation's #1 team took a bit of a hit last weekend when they came out 2nd to Voorhees in the NJ Shore Coaches merge without Blaise Ferro, but CBA is still the top ranked team in the race. If Ferro is running at top form, CBA could well be the favorites to pick up their 5th ES title.
Maine-Endwell (NY)
Overview: The Spartans have been a bit of a suprise this year as they battle Pittsford Mendon for the NY Class B top spot, and even among the bigger teams at Eastern States they are well set for a top 15 place.
Roster: Dan Schaffer (188), Grayson Hoteling (169), Matt Goyden (165), Nick Taylor (159), James Hackett (149), Terrence Sinclair (149)
Team Data: 166. 1st in Owego-Large.
Comments: Being from a part of the state (Section 4) that doesn't always get out to the big meets that much, you can be sure that Maine-Endwell will be using Eastern States to establish as much trail cred as possible, and with a little movement at the back behind Dan Schaffer, the Spartans could be challenging for a top 10 place.
La Salle Academy (RI)
Overview: If the Rams are coming to Manhattan with a full and healthy contingent, they will be battling for the Eastern States title.
Roster: DJ Principe (193), Matthew Bouthillette (188), Jack Salisbury (171 in 2014, add more for 2015), Alex Campagna (165), Ben Carlisle (156), Harry Dewitt (148)
Team Data: 178.4. 2nd in Bowdoin-2
Comments: The Rams were running a little short-handed at Bowdoin when they finished 2nd to a Voorhees squad that a week later was the top team in the NJ Shore Coaches merge, but they still had the 2nd best time average at Bowdoin behind only CBA. Principe will be battling for the individual title, Bouthillette should be in the top 10, and if Jack Salisbury and maybe another 2015-debut guy are ready to join in, La Salle could be running off with a title.
Salesianum (DE)
Overview: The Sallies are the top rated team in DE and will be battling among the top 25 in Eastern States.
Roster: Andrew Hally (177), John Walker (173), Asa Bloom (151), Andrew Caverly (146), Matt Drake (144)
Team Data: 158.2. 2nd in Salesianum-Champ, 4th in adidas XC Challenge
Comments: Salesianum has a solid top duo in Hally and Walker, and with some movement at the back, the Sallies could edge up toward a top 20 place.
Downingtown West (PA)
Overview: The Whippets are ranked among the top 35 teams nationally, and after a huge win two weeks ago in the Challenge race at Carlisle, they are among the teams who will be seriously challenging for an Eastern States title.
Roster: Jaxson Hoey (189), Josh Hoey (183), Henry Sappey (179), Ryan Barton (167), Shaun Bullock (165), Ben Ryherd (164)
Team Data: 176.6. 1st in Carlisle Challenge
Comments: A 176 speed rating at Carlisle behind the top trio of US Top 35 Jaxson Hoey and brother Josh and Henry Sappey established the Whippets as a big time contender fro an Eastern States title. With a little boost in the 4-5-6 spots, DW will be very dangerous.
St. Anthony's (NY)
Overview: Last year's Eastern States 3rd place team and 8th place NXN Nationals team, the Friars are looking for a breakout race in 2015 and could move up well above their 10th spot in pre-race ratings.
Roster: Fredereck Buchholtz (178), Ryan Kutch (180), Ryan Dearie (177), Chris Langer (173), Tim Violino (163)
Team Data: 170.4. 1st in St. Anthony's
Comments: The Friars are one of the most local teams in the race and know Van Cortlandt very well, so it would be no huge surprise if they pulled everything together behind the top trio of Kutch, Buckholtz, and Dearie and reprise a performance like last year's big effort.
Carthage (NY)
Overview: Behind the unrated but clearly national top-5-or-better runner Noah Affolder, the Comets should be racing among the top 25 teams in Eastern States.
Roster: Noah Affolder (197), Sam Affolder (184), Brian Lamonica (148), Kurt Naumann (147), Erik Naumann (146)
Team Data: 162.2. 8th in McQuaid-AAA
Comments: Even after a record-crushing day at the huge McQuaid meet last weekend, Noah Affolder's exploits seem to have gone unnoticed in certain areas of XC country. As the pre-race favorite in Eastern States, he will be expected to have a performance that will clue everyone in to his speed level, and brother Sam will be challenging for a top 10 place.
McDonough School (MD)
Overview: The Rams will be one of the teams fighting at the back in Eastern States.
Roster: Dalton Hengst (176), Lucas Wright (172), Will Eisner (136), Charlie Burgess (135), Jack Owen (130)
Team Data: 149.8. 26th in Paul Short-Brown
Comments: The Rams will have a chance to run with the best in Eastern States with frontrunner Dalton Hengst leading the way.
Charter (DE)
Overview: Wilmington Charter is one of the top rated schools in Delaware and should be battling for a top 20 place in the Eastern States.
Roster: Kevin Murray (183), Chris Avila (169), Coby Collins (164), Nick Monroe (156), Logan Kim (145)
Team Data: 163.4. 5th in Paul Short-Brown
Comments: Frontrunner Kevin Murray is coming off a victory at Paul Short, and he looks to lead The Force to a solid palcing in Eastern States.
Corning (NY)
Overview: The Hawks have been among the top 5 teams in NY this year, and they should be contending among the top 10 team in the Eastern States.
Roster: Peter Kane (179), Brian Bates (179), Bryce Derrick (169), Kevin Moshier (172), Dan Gahagen (163)
Team Data: 172.0. 3rd in McQuaid-AAA
Comments: Seniors Peter Kane and Brian Bates have been leading a strong pack of Hawks who have put up impressive results all season, and after a strong 3rd in the big McQuaid race last weekend, they look ready to contend for a top 10 spot on Saturday.
Sachem East (NY)
Overview: The Flaming Arrows are coming off a victory in the Suffolk Coaches meet two weekends ago, and they will be trying to get up for a top 25 place in Eastern States.
Roster: Nick Pandolfo (163), Brandon Guerrera (160), Matt Patsy (155), Edmund Carroll (148), Max Osterberg (142)
Team Data: 158.0. 1st in Suffolk Coaches-B
Comments: Sachem East has wins at the Crusader Classic and Suffolk Coaches meets this year, so the team could be ready to unleash a big performance in Eastern States.
Don Bosco Prep (NJ)
Overview: The Ironmen were the first winners of the modern Eastern States race seven years ago, and on Saturday they should be running among the top 15 teams.
Roster: David Rosas (183), Patrick Sullivan (174), Justin Fuhrman (163), Alex Zeepvat (159), Connor Nicholson (156)
Team Data: 167. Finished 2nd in Carlisle-Challenge
Comments: Don Bosco put up a solid performance at Carlisle while finishing 2nd behind Downingtown West with David Rosas placing 3rd, and the Ironmen could match their 10th place finish in last year's Eastern States if they get a boost from the back end of the lineup.
Guilderland (NY)
Overview: The Flying Dutchmen took a 1st in race D last year at Manhattan, and as one of the top 10 Class A teams in NY they will be battling to break into the top 15 in Eastern States.
Roster: Noah Carey (182), Noah Tindale (170), Jared Capuano (161), Victor Warner (141), Ethan McDonald (143)
Team Data: 164.4. 1st in Ocean State-Champ
Comments: Guilderland is led by the Noahs -- Carey and Tindale -- and after a big win at Ocean State two weeks ago they may be ready to lead the team to new heights among the top 15 teams in Eastern States.
Colonie (NY)
Overview: The Raiders will likely move up well beyond their current speed ratings for Eastern States.
Roster: Jake Johnson (178), Jacob Oertel (138), Brendan McAuley (131), Ryan Moon (129), Jared Craw (127)
Team Data: 146.6. 5th in Crusader-5.
Comments: The Raiders' last major run was in the beast of a Crusader Classic final race that was won by the team's top guy Jake Johnson, and their speed ratings should jump hugely at Manhattan.. We'll just have to stand by and watch how Johnson and crew react to much better conditions this Saturday.
Colts Neck (NJ)
Overview: After establishing themselves with a big win at Six Flags two weeks ago, the Cougars look ready to contend for a top 10 place in the Eastern States.
Roster: Jordan Brannan (182), Anthony Russo (166), Zach Csipkay (166), Rick Sommer (163), Liam Hoagland (159)
Team Data: 167.2. Finished 1st in the Six Flags Wild Safari-B race
Comments: Jordan Brannan and the Cougars took a dominating 1st in the Wild Safari-B race, and as one of the top teams in NJ, the team should have a solid day on Saturday.
Fordham Prep (NY)
Overview: The Rams have been playing a bit of a waiting game all season and their real speed ratings could be calculated in many ways, but if NY state track champion Conor Lundy is ready to floor it on Saturday, the Rams could be looking at a top 10 showing.
Roster: Conor Lundy (190)*, Connor Miller (173), Matt Dougherty (167), Conor Hughes (155)
Team Data: 154.6++. 9th in McQuaid-AA.
Comments: Rams' frontrunner was sick and unable to make his season debut at McQuaid, but if he can return near top form on Saturday, FP should be not that far behind their 6th place finish in last year's race.
River Dell (NJ)
Overview: The Golden Hawks will have senior frontrunners Colin and William Daly shooting for top 30 finishes in Eastern States.The brothers had an uncanny knack of crossing the finish line together in last year's XC races, and though there are no marks for them this year, we'll give them the ratings they had while finishing in the top 40 in the Footlocker Northeast regional last year.
Liverpool (NY)
Overview: The US #8 Warriors follow up their victory at McQuaid with their first head-to-head showdown with local rival Fayetteville-Manlius this season, and they will be in the running for the win after a 2nd place in Eastern States last year.
Roster: Ben Petrella (191), Ty Brownlow (179), Stevie Schulz (177), Terrell Coleman (175), Ryan Comstock (166)
Team Data: 176.6. 1st in McQuaid-AAA
Comments: US #20 runner Ben Petrella and his NY #3 Liverpool team have been stalking their nemesis Fayetteville-Manlius for the last few years, and in Eastern States they will have a chance to not only unseat the Hornets but also firmly establish their high national ranking that follows a 4th at NXN Nationals last year. Ben Petrella will be in the fight for a win in the ES after a victory in the McQuaid-AAA race and second best time at the meet behind Noah Affolder.
Darien (CT)
Overview: The Blue Wave will be represented by senior frontrunner Armstrong Noonan with a 188 speed rating. Noonan just missed a spot at Footlocker Nationals last year with a 12th place in the Northeast regional, so Manhattan will be a step toward preparing for another attempt this year.
Mount Tabor (NC)
Overview: The Spartans are the 2nd ranked team in NC and will be battling for a top 20 place in the Eastern States.
Roster: Cameron Ponder (170), Nelson Russ (166), Ian Foley (160), Kenny Kneisel (157), Charles Pace (156)
Team Data: 161.8. Finished 1st in Oatlands-A race
Comments: Mount Tabor took a close win at Oatlands back in mid September, and following the washout of the Great American, the Spartans are marching into Manhattan to put their pack on the line with the best in Eastern States.
Needham (MA)
Overview: The Rockets are one of the better Massachusetts teams that will be contending for a top 25 place in the Eastern States.
Roster: Kevin Quinn (166), Steve Flanagan (164), Alex Turner (161), Drew Khalaj (155), John Benner (152)
Team Data: 159.6. Finished 6th in Ocean State-Champ
Comments: Needham has a solid pack that should have a strong showing on Saturday.
Pittsford Mendon (NY)
Overview: The Vikings are the 4th ranked NY and top Class B team in the state, and a strong pack with frontrunner Nathan Lawler contending at the top should put them in line to challenge for a top 5 spot on Saturday.
Roster: Nathan Lawler (181), Isaac Goodman (169), Griffin Hess (169), Henry Burton (173), Casey Woodward (166)
Team Data: 172.8.Finished 1st in McQuaid-AA race
Comments: The Vikings are no strangers to battles with bigger schools in their western NY area. and Nathan Lawler should follow up his 6th place finish at McQuaid last weekend with another big run to push PM to a very high finish.
Germantown Academy (PA)
Overview: Owen Ritz with a speed rating of around 155 will be joined by 8th-grade brother Daniel to run for the Patriots in Eastern States.
Danbury (CT)
Overview: The Hatters should be prepped for a strong showing after a break from major meets since mid September and they will be contending among the top 15 teams.
Roster: Jack Adamski (175), Terrell Cunningham (167), Trevor Reed (163), Tyler Granja (158), Tim Moore (157), Jake Roberts (157)
Team Data: 164. 2nd in Amherst race.
Comments: The Hatters were the state champs last year and have a decently strong pack that should help them in the twists and turns of Van Cortlandt.
Glastonbury (CT)
Overview: The Tomahawks' Randy Neish is coming off a 1st place in the Woods Trail meet that earned him a 187 speed rating, and he could be among the top 10 guys in Estern States.
Patriot (VA)
Overview: The Pioneers will likely be running at the back of the pack in the Eastern States.
Roster: Greg Moore (166), Eric Speeny (164), Matt Blair (160), Lawson Brannon (156), Justin Sriver (153)
Team Data: 159.8. 8th in MileStat RVA Relays
Comments: The Patriots have not run in a recent meet with firm speed ratings, but they look to be running more at the back behind the tough Eastern States lineup.
Shenendehowa (NY)
Overview: Tle Plainsmen have a pack that should help them contend for a top 20 place.
Roster: Mitch Halpern (160), Tyler Schmidt (167), Alex Matson (165), Henry Christopher (167), Josh Lacey (156)
Team Data: 162.6. 8th in McQuaid-AAA.
Comments: Shen's performance at McQuaid may have been just a small step before a big leap at Eastern States.
Millburn (NJ)
Overview: The Millers will be contending among the top 25 teams in Eastern States.
Roster: Chris Stone (166), Ramsey Little (165), Owen McCarthy (158), Noah Yadgaroff (154), John Lacy (150)
Team Data: 158.6. Finished 7th in New Jersey Shore Coaches-A1 and 16th in merge.
Comments: Millburn is coming off a solid showing at the New Jesey Shore Coaches meet, and the Millers will hope to build on that in Eastern States.
Cherry Hill East (NJ)
Overview: Cherry Hill East is ranked #3 in NJ but has not run in a major meet since mid September, so a breakout at Eastern States similar to last year's 5th place finish may be looming.
Roster: Aaron Groff (188), Tyler Parsons (172), Mark Meltzer (169), Isaiah Jean Baptiste (167), Josh Dillon (166)
Team Data: 172.4. 1st in class merge for Battle of Ocean County Park
Comments: Frontrunner Aaron Groff was far ahead at Ocean County earlier in the season, and the Cougars may be poised for another big finish in Eastern States.
Charlotte Latin School (NC)
Overview: The Hawks' frontrunner Jack Ratterree is making his way solo to the Eastern States race and sports a solid 178 speed rating.
Stamford (CT)
Overview: The Black Knights will be represented by a single runner Gilmar Barrios who has no career recorded results in the database.
Brien McMahon (CT)
Overview: The Senators will be sending senior frontrunner Eric Van Der Els who won the Wilton Championship earlier this year and was 15th in last year's New England XC Championship. He should finish among the top 25 runners.
High Point (NJ)
Overview: The Wildcats are expected to place towards the back of the Eastern States race.
Roster: Joe Dragon (182), Dan Banas (150), Ian Miller (148), Zach DiSanza (142), Dan Juliano (140)
Team Data: 152.4. 5th in Passaic County Coaches-2 race
Comments:
High Point frontrunner Joe Dragon was the top guy in his Passaic County
Coaches race ahead of a pack of St. Benedict's runners, and he has
maybe the coolest name of any guy in Eastern States, so look for him to
finish in the top 25 or better.