2015 NY Boys XC Previews -- Class A



Class A Preview
2015 Season Overview for Class A

Maybe no state conference will be able to boast the the 1st and 4th best teams in the nation ever again, and the fact that Fayettevile-Manlius and Liverpool live in the same local league makes last year's performance at Nationals all the more stupendous. Expanding the Class A of the NYSPHSAA state championship group to the wider state rankings for the large Class A schools that include CHSAA powers such as 2014 national 8th place team St. Anthony's and you get just an incredible wealth of talent at the top of NY scholastic running in 2014.

But that was then and this is now, and the reality of 2015 has set in following the big graduation losses for many of last year's top teams. This could mean a big drop for the high flyers of 2014 except that they have proven themselves to annual development machines that create smooth running products by the end of the year. So though the top two teams are not perched on quite as high a branch to start the year in 2015, we can expect Fayetteville-Manluis and Liverpool to be living at the top of the rankings throughout the season, though this year the challenges from other top 10 teams are likely to be felt much more strongly.

Liverpool last won a sectional title in 2007, and since then FM has rolled to 7 straight Section 3-A titles, but this year both teams have a lot of work to do to get back up among the top 10 or 20 teams in the nation with squads whose top 6 both average a youngish 11.17 grade level. Peter Ryan for FM and Ben Petrella for Liverpool will be the senior anchors for the two powerhouses from last year who will be looking for major leaps from the runners behind them, only three of whom were also at Nationals, Joe Walters of FM and Ty Brownlow and Ryan Comstock of Liverpool.

Section 2 appears to be the hotbed of running activity that is most likely to challenge the recent dominance of Section 3's two powerhouses, and that's to be expected since S2 teams have won the three state championships from 2008 through 2014 that were not won by FM. With Guilderland led by Noah Carey and Noah Tindale, Shenendehowa headed by seniors Mitch Halpern and Tyler Schmidt, and Saratoga helmed by Aidan Tooker and Ethan North all challenging for the top of S2-A, there is a strong likelihood that at least one of the teams will push themselves to a level that will break into the S3-A monopoly. Arlington with some runners that were not at Sectionals last year now on the lead, Corning with seniors Peter Kane and Brian Bates on the lead and a Matt Adolph led Warwick Valley team that will be running on home sectional turf at States are also teams to watch.

The last four state individual champions (Bryce Millar x 2, Nick Ryan x 2) in Class A were rated among the top 3 returning runners, so that puts the spotlight on Liverpool's Ben Petrella, Fayetteville-Manlius's Peter Ryan and Saratoga's Aidan Tooker to shine in that mid November race at Monroe-Woodbury. But of course both Millar and Ryan won at States in their junior years, and Guilderland's Noah Carey is close enough to the top that a junior push could get him to the head of the line.

The times may be A-changing, but one thing that isn't changing is that the action will be blazing hot from early September until early December.

The States Class A race burns a bridge at Canton last year.
Top 5 Teams at 2014 States





1. Fayetteville-Manlius
24
Shenendehowa
100
Warwick Valley 114Sachem North 118Corning 126
Projected Top 5 Teams for 2015 from Returners' 2014 TR Ratings





1. Fayetteville-Manlius
169.4
2. Liverpool 168.43. Guilderland 167.24.Corning 169.25t. Shenendehowa 165.2
Projected Next 10 Teams for 2015 from Returners' 2014 TR Ratings





5t. Arlington 165.2

7.Sarartoga 164.68. Warwick Valley 164.0

9. Fairport 159.8

10. McQuaid 158.6






11. Ithaca 158.2

12t. Sachem East 157.8

12t. Port Washington 157.8

14. Colonie 157.6

15. Calhoun 157.4






16. Mamaroneck 156.4

17t. Williamsville North154.2

17t. Northport

154.2

19. Baldwinsville 153.6

20. Syosset 152.8






21. Webster Thomas 152.4

22. Cicero-North Syracuse 151.6

23. North Rockland 150.8

24. Niskayuna 150.4

25. Shaker 149.4






Next:Kingston,Monroe-Woodbury,Sachem North, Commack,

Elmira, West Genesee,Lockport,Ward MelvilleSuffern

Fayetteville-Manlius's Bryce Millar leads the way through the mud at States with Saratoga's Aidan Tooker and Ithaca's Dan Dracup.


Top 2015 Returning Runners by Last Year's TR Rating
Name Team GradeSection States Place Season TR
Ben PetrellaLiverpool1232194
Peter RyanFayetteville-Manlius12314192
Aidan TookerSaratoga1224191
Noah CareyGuilderland1129186
Jake JohnsonColonie12218185
Donovan GlavinMcQuaid12515181
David LeffWest Genesee113--179
Matt AdolphWarwick Valley12923178
Peter KaneCorning12435178
Paul NicholsShaker12226176
Jonathan LauerSachem North111124176
Thorr TrowbridgeKingston12938176
Nick NeamtuWebster Thomas12562176
Brian BatesCorning12428175
Connor DoranLockpoort11633175
Joe WaltersFayetteville-Manlius11327174
Mitch HalpernShenendehowa12232173
Ty BrownlowLiverpool113--172
William YoungMamaroneck11149172
Elias PlataniasCalhoun12853172
Colin BegleyWilliamsville North10642171
Noah TindaleGuilderland92--171
Matthew DillonArlington111--171
Joe MorrisonArlington111--175 (est)
The NYSPHSAA's Class A guys were in force at the Federation meet that was won by Northport's Mikey Brannigan and included Saratoga' Aidan Tooker, Syosset's Tyler Italiano, and Carmel's Benito Muniz in the top 10.
Section by Section Class A Overview
SectionTop Teams Notes
1Arlington, Mamaroneck,North Rockland, SuffernArlington lost the top two from last year's States squad but still appears to have enough runners back plus some new guys for a repeat if everyone is healthy, though Mamaroneck could challenge if it can fill out the back of the roster.
2Guilderland, Shenendehowa, Saratoga, Colonie, Niskayuna, ShakerTwo Noahs and a senior support crew give Guilderland as small edge in S2-A, but Shen and Saratoga are close behind, and six teams among the top 25 Class A teams means that getting the crown in this section will probably involve some nasty Game of Thrones action..
3Fayetteville-Manlius, Liverpool, Baldwinsville, Cicero-North Syracuse, West Genesee,The reigning national champion FM team will be challenged even more strongly by the 4th place national team Liverpool again, and at this point it's a toss-up and we'll just have to see what develops.
4Corning, Ithaca, Elmira District, HorseheadsCorning has the stronger top group, but the question is whether the Hawks will develop the back-line depth to hold off Ithaca.
5Fairport, McQuaid, Webster Thomas, Penfield, Rush-Henrietta, Churchville-ChiliFairport appears to have a pack that will be strong enough to capture the S5-A crown, but if McQuaid and Webster Thomas fill out their squads as expected, this race will get very tight.
6Williamsville North, Lockport, Clarence, Orchard Park, LancasterWilliamsville North has a considerable edge going into the season, but if Lockport can add more depth they should mount a strong challenge in S6-A.
7No representatives
8Port Washington, Calhoun, Syosset, East MeadowPort Washington and Calhoun start off the season rated almost identically, and reigning S8-A champ Syosset is not far behind even after losing 4 of the top 5 to graduation, so this is pretty much a pick'em.
9Warwick Valley, Kingston, Monroe-Woodbury, WashingtonvilleWarwick Valley has won 17 sectional championships in a row in three different classes, and an 18th consecutive title appears very imminent.
10No representatives
11Sachem East, Calhoun, Northport, Ward Melville, Commack, Sachem NorthSachem East and Calhoun should be neck-and-neck with a young Northport team charging right behind. Reigning S11-A champ Sachem North lost 6 of 7 from its States squad.



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