Girls - Potential National Contenders
My pre-season projection for National Girls Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State and other teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).
To a large extent, the team listing below is an extension of the 2015 XC season into 2016 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results in 2016 will identify those teams ... Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2016 race results are what count.
I did add some Regional Projections this year.
View The Full Article Here (With Analysis)
Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2016
School State Score NXN Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ----------
1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 160 New York
2 Great Oak CA 190 California
3 Saratoga Springs NY 210 New York
4 Davis Senior CA 250 California
5 Carmel IN 310 Midwest
6 Willmar MN 310 Heartland
7 Edina MN 330 Heartland
8 Arcadia CA 350 California
9 North Rockland NY 365 New York
10 Bozeman MT 390 Northwest
11 Lake Braddock VA 410 Southeast
12 Blacksburg VA 410 Southeast
13 Minooka IL 410 Midwest
14 American Fork UT 415 Southwest
15 Summit OR 420 Northwest
16 Desert Vista AZ 435 Southwest
17 Saugus CA 435 California
18 Centerville OH 450 Midwest
19 Highland-Milford MI 455 Midwest
20 Jesuit OR 460 Northwest
21 Keller TX 480 South
22 Birmingham Seaholm MI 485 Midwest
23 Marshall MN 490 Heartland
24 Buchanan CA 495 California
25 Yorkville IL 500 Midwest
26 Camas WA 505 Northwest
27 Batavia IL 510 Midwest
28 Riverside SC 520 Southeast
29 Davis Utah UT 520 Southwest
30 Esperanza CA 520 California