Girls Teams
It would seem that the girls Northeast is full of mysteries. There could be some surprises afoot. The first, most notable, will come out of the private school league in Massachusetts. Unable to race against the public schools during the regular season, Phillips Andover (MA) has slipped under the radar of many national entities. On the surface, their speed ratings are not impressive, ranging from 120 to 105, based on their championship meet. However, you need to look at the pieces to see their potential. All five girls have broken 19 minutes over 5 kilometers this year. Their fourth girl, Anoush Shehadeh, took 4th place at Foot Locker in 2013, despite falling early into the race. Many believe she could have vied for the national title had she stayed on her feet. Despite suffering an injury early in the season, pictures in the local paper indicate she is healthy. On top of that, their third girl, Peyton McGovern, has run 4:41 on the track in the 1500m last year. With these pieces and more, these girls could surprise some spectators.
Learning from last year, two teams from Pennsylvania have shifted their season's strategy. While last year, Unionville (PA) struck hard early, winning McQuaid over Fayetteville-Manlius, this year, they pushed back their peak. Likewise, Pennsbury (PA) did the same, both squads not running a full 5k until 6 weeks into the regular season. While both began rounding into form for their state meet, something says the extra month of training since then has shown significant gains in their fitness. Are these two programs that could shake up the projections?
And finally, we have the two safe bets. La Salle Academy (RI) has been the favorite since the early season, progressing well. With Eliza Rego up front, and Karina Tavares on her heels, anything is possible. Likewise, Sheridan Wilbur put on a show at Manhattan, and proved they could be deadly if all three fire together. Behind them, Coe-Brown (NH) only finished 13 points behind La Salle at New Englands, and have been improving steadily. They could prove to be a force on the fields of Bowdoin Park.
The below projections are best on season's speed ratings, with a higher weight towards the post season. The battle for second place looks heated, as only a handful of points separate quite a few teams. On the unforgiving hills in Wappingers Falls, those can shift quickly.
Girls NXN-NE Projections ===================================================================================== Team Pts 1 2 3 4 5 (6) (7) ===================================================================================== ? Phillips Andover ??? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Total Time: ??? Average: ??.?? 1-5 Split: ?? 1 La Salle 72 2 3 6 20 41 52 72 Total Time: 1:12 Average: 14.40 1-5 Split: 39 2 Coe-Brown 119 8 10 22 25 54 62 95 Total Time: 1:59 Average: 23.80 1-5 Split: 46 3 Pennsbury 136 1 7 23 45 60 70 92 Total Time: 2:16 Average: 27.20 1-5 Split: 59 4 Ridgewood 146 11 12 35 42 46 61 63 Total Time: 2:26 Average: 29.20 1-5 Split: 35 5 Unionville 146 5 19 27 30 65 91 135 Total Time: 2:26 Average: 29.20 1-5 Split: 1:00 6 Red Bank Catholic 166 15 33 37 38 43 58 82 Total Time: 2:46 Average: 33.20 1-5 Split: 28 7 Hillsborough 169 4 9 26 59 71 74 76 Total Time: 2:49 Average: 33.80 1-5 Split: 1:07 8 Tolland 176 21 28 29 31 67 111 116 Total Time: 2:56 Average: 35.20 1-5 Split: 46 9 Cardinal O'Hara 200 18 34 36 44 68 84 120 Total Time: 3:20 Average: 40.00 1-5 Split: 50 10 Champlain Valley Union Hi 272 13 47 56 73 83 125 132 Total Time: 4:33 Average: 54.60 1-5 Split: 1:11 11 Bishop Feehan 282 40 48 49 64 81 86 93 Total Time: 4:42 Average: 56.40 1-5 Split: 41
Girls Individuals
After her state meet performance, Olivia Sargent (Pennsbury) is the prohibitive favorite to run away with the title. However, there is a catch. Just a week prior, Olivia Young (Unionville) defeated Sargent. Could we see these two dueling out front yet again, as both are looking for those valuable team points? They've each had a full month of training since their last matchup, so anything is possible.
In an unlikely turn of events, many of the top seeds come from New England, rather than the Tri-State. Eleanor Lawler (South Kingston) and Karina Tavares (La Salle) finished very closely at the Rhode Island State Meet, and will see each other again, two states over. Tavares will have teammates Eliza Rego and Sheridan Wilbur by her side as well, adding extra motivation.
The Garden State fills out the top ranks. Catherine Pagano (Northern Highlands) is double entered in both events, but may have an easier time of things at NXN-NE. Meanwhile, Sierra Castenada (W. Morris Central) and Stephanie Mauer (Hillsborough) have the same speed as Pagano to push the pace. Whomever qualifies may depend on the team scoring as well.
| Top Contenders | Top Challengers |
| 1. Olivia Sargent - Pennsbury, PA | 6. Olivia Young - Unionville, PA |
| 2. Eleanor Lawler - South Kingston, RI | 7. Megan Doody - Oyster River, NH |
| 3. Karina Tavares - La Salle, RI | 8. Eliza Rego - La Salle, RI |
| 4. Sierra Casteneda - West Morris Central, NJ | 9. Hannah Parker - Coe-Brown, NH |
| 5. Stephanie Mauer - Hillsborough, NJ | 10. Sheridan Wilbur - La Salle, RI |
| 5. Grace Dwyer - Nottingham, NJ | |
| Double Entered (FL / NXN) | |
| Catherine Pagano - Northern Highlands, NJ | |