Nike Cross Nationals Northeast Regional Preview

MileSplit HQ - It's nationals season for the folks of the Northeast.  Perspectives have changed from trying to beat out the best of the state, to competing with the best of the best.

Teams and athletes have two options for those who wish to extend their season.  To oversimplify, the Nike Cross Regionals are for teams looking to continue, and the Foot Locker Regional is for the individual.  There is some slight variation in these perspectives, but more on that later.

Because of scheduling, it is either one or the other.  Both events have some of the region top talent, and our full Foot Locker preview will be out on later today.

Also of note, teams are not allowed to use their school names, so club names are required.  We added them in under their school names below, for easier digestion of the information.

Nike Cross Regionals - Northeast

*Note: Team predictions are from a state meet merge.

Boys Teams

The boys of Christian Brothers Academy have been there, done that.  They've set course records utilizing their "B" squad.  Took another Manhattan title.  Dominated the Meet Of Champions.   Now it is on to the post season.  The regional may look like all but a formality for the nations top ranked Colts, coming in stronger than last year.  But then again, last year, they were nowhere near first at the halfway mark.  They put in the extra work in the last half of the race, and I wouldn't expect the same thing to happen again this year.  Led by frontrunners Mike McClemens, Blaise Ferro, and Tom Rooney, the brothers of Lincroft, NJ looks to be able to handle the lead quite well.

The story behind them looks very similar to that of the New Yorker boys, in that almost virtually anything can happen.  With a healthy Kyle Levermore returning to aid Mike Higgins, Don Bosco Prep of New Jersey has been a team on the rise, regaining their full strength just in time for their own Championship season.  These last two weeks, they've steadily risen up the national rankings, and for good reason.  After taking second in the Meet of Champions by a decent amount, they come in seeded just four points ahead of third place.

That third place team?  None other than 2012 qualifier West Chester Henderson.  Not only do they also know how to run Bowdoin, they know how to win a spot to nationals at Bowdoin.  Led by senior Tony Russell, the overall winner of the race last year, Henderson will go toe-to-toe with the Bosco Boys.  On paper, the biggest gap will be between the pairs 3rd men, which could be the deciding factor for the race.  Too close to call coming into the race, and it very well may come down to a matter of meters to decide the race.

Boys NXN-NE Projections                              
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    Team                        Pts     1    2    3    4    5   (6)  (7)
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  1 Christian Brothers          61      1    6    8   22   24   27   58  
      Total Time: 1:06      Average: 13.20      1-5 Split: 25
  2 Don Bosco                   119     5   13   17   37   47   52   70  
      Total Time: 2:21      Average: 28.20      1-5 Split: 52
  3 W Chester Henderson         123     4   11   25   38   45   48   62  
      Total Time: 2:23      Average: 28.60      1-5 Split: 50
  4 Bishop Hendricken           154    15   20   28   36   55   61   86  
      Total Time: 3:04      Average: 36.80      1-5 Split: 53
  5 La Salle-RI                 161    19   21   39   40   42   82   84  
      Total Time: 3:10      Average: 38.00      1-5 Split: 31
  6 Ridgefield                  167     3   30   31   32   71   77   78  
      Total Time: 3:29      Average: 41.80      1-5 Split: 1:32
  7 Cardinal O'Hara             179     7   23   35   54   60   74   85  
      Total Time: 3:44      Average: 44.80      1-5 Split: 1:12
  8 Pembroke                    183    12   18   43   53   57   65   69  
      Total Time: 3:42      Average: 44.40      1-5 Split: 58
  9 Middletown North            191     2   14   49   51   75   83   87  
      Total Time: 4:00      Average: 48.00      1-5 Split: 1:37
 10 W.W.P. South                200    10   29   41   56   64   66   80  
      Total Time: 4:11      Average: 50.20      1-5 Split: 1:14

Boys Individuals

In the past, it may have seemed easier to make NXN in the Northeast, rather than Foot Locker.  2013 will look to change that, as the competitors look to be the top of the class. 

Excluding CBA's top three mentioned above, Tom O'Neill has been having a stellar senior season.  Running without his earpiece, the born-deaf runner from Middletown North can focus on the race in front of him, hopefully with nobody blocking the view.  Behind him may be last years winner Tony Russell.  He has the experience to push the pace, and chase behind the two Jersey competitors.  Will his kick garner him the win again? To round out the top three, you have the PA AA State Champ Griffin Mollina, who was the second fastest of the day at that State Meet, and comes in as one of the younger challengers.

Moving through the ranks is also Dylan Tarpey of New Jersey, who took second at the Meet of Champions last week.  With credentials like that, expect him to be at the front of the pack.  Matthew Luppino and Tom Vinci round out the NJ'ers in the top ten, as both have competed well throughout the season.

Moving north of New York, you will have Colin Tierny of Bishop Hendricken battling for his team, as will Trevor Hopper of Ridgefield.  The two find themselves surrounding that final qualifying spot, and it looks to be an all out sprint to the finish.  Separating the two is Massachusetts' own Nick Carleo, who has is coming off a win at his State Meet in the fastest time of the day.  Things should get interesting quickly up front.

Girls Teams

Despite a season full of success, Saturday looks to be a big day for Unionville.  They will be able to watch the seven-time national champions Fayetteville-Manlius run the course an hour before they head up the hills themselves.  Along with Great Oak of California, Unionville look best to challenge the seven year stranglehold the Hornets have had on the prize.  Led by Harvard-bound senior Courtney Smith, the Indians took home a hotly-contested state title against in-state rivals, Pennsbury.  Along with Smith, teammates Olicia Young and Kacie Breeding look to be strong contenders for a top ten finish.  Their win at the state meet (along with the projections below) did not include senior, #2-runner Emily Fisher, who has been returning from a case of mono that hit mid-season.  She looks to be almost back at full strength for this weekend's race, and should increase the gap Unionville has on the field.

Just like the Pennsylvania state meet, it will be Erica Gray and Hannah Molloy leading the team attack for Pennsbury.  They look to be the #2 team in the region by a healthy 40 point margin, and could just as easily close the gap on Unionville, given the right race.  The depth of competition, both on the team and the individual side this year in Pennsylvania has been unprecedented, and it seems to be coming to a point at these national championships.  Just as Unionville's seed may not be the full picture, Olivia Sargent of Pennsbury had an off day at States, and with her return to the #1 spot at Regionals expected, both teams score could decrease in tandem.

New Hampshire's Coe-Brown looks to breakup the sisterly love from the Philadelphia area.  Within a reasonable distance, they could run the hills just as fast as anyone else.

Girls NXN-NE Projections                      
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    Team                        Pts     1    2    3    4    5   (6)  (7)
==========================================================================
  1 Unionville                  74      1    7    9   27   30   82    -  
      Total Time: 1:30      Average: 18.00      1-5 Split: 35
  2 Pennsbury                   83      8   10   16   21   28   53   88  
      Total Time: 1:43      Average: 20.60      1-5 Split: 23
  3 Coe-Brown-NH                121    11   14   19   29   48   65   76  
      Total Time: 2:30      Average: 30.00      1-5 Split: 46
  4 Barrington HS-RI            147     2   12   39   42   52   56   81  
      Total Time: 3:02      Average: 36.40      1-5 Split: 1:02
  5 La Salle-RI                 152     6   13   22   51   60   61   70  
      Total Time: 3:09      Average: 37.80      1-5 Split: 1:09
  6 Bishop Feehan               153     3   25   32   35   58   62   67  
      Total Time: 3:08      Average: 37.50      1-5 Split: 1:10
  7 Randolph                    160     4   18   24   40   74   86   87  
      Total Time: 3:20      Average: 40.00      1-5 Split: 1:31
  8 Needham                     169    15   20   31   46   57   64   90  
      Total Time: 3:29      Average: 41.80      1-5 Split: 52
  9 Red Bank Catholic           194    17   33   44   45   55   77   80  
      Total Time: 4:02      Average: 48.40      1-5 Split: 47
 10 Hamilton-Wenham             220    23   37   47   54   59   71   83  
      Total Time: 4:32      Average: 54.40      1-5 Split: 45

Girls Individuals
In almost an exact flip of the guys situation, a majority of the top ten girls in the region have all elected to run Foot Locker.  That doesn't mean that competition will be watered down at NXN-NE, as several well credentialed athletes will toe the line.  Top-billed athlete Abbie McNulty of Massachusetts comes in as the fastest of the individuals, but had to pull out of her State Championship.  Fully healthy again, she will make the push.  If she has a full return to form, she will be facing off with Autumn Eastman of Champlain Valley, who took second over Courtney Smith at the Manhattan Eastern's race early this year.  Eastman is coming off a State title, and is looking to head west.

Elizabeth Lansing of New Jersey is coming off a win at her Group Meet, as well as a fourth place finish at the Meet of Champions.  Grace Dwyer also placed highly at both those meets, only two competitors back from Lansing.  Splitting the pair is Rhode Island's Eliza Rego, who took seventh at the New England Championships.

As for top challengers, there is a dark horse entry.  Sarah Walker, the 2:08, 800m freshmen from PA, is entered for Germantown Friends for her first XC race ever.  It is hard to gauge what shape she may be in after a season of soccer,  but this one could surprise.