NXN-NY / Foot Locker Northeast Regional Preview (Updated)

MileSplit NY - It's nationals season for the folks of the Northeast.  Perspectives have changed from trying to beat out the best of the state, to competing with the best of the best.

Teams and athletes have two options for those who wish to extend their season.  To oversimplify, the Nike Cross Regionals are for teams looking to continue, and the Foot Locker Regional is for the individual.  There is some slight variation in these perspectives, but more on that later.

Because of scheduling, it is either one or the other.  Both events have some of NY's top talent, and our full Foot Locker preview will be out on tomorrow.

Also of note, teams are not allowed to use their school names, so club names are required.  Below are some highlights.

Nike Cross Regionals - New York

*Note: Team predictions are from a state merge, averaged with Fed, which scored speed ratings from the NYSPHSAA, AIS, PSAL, and CHSAA meet. 

Boys Teams

One team race to rule them all.  There have been close calls, single point victories, and full scale blowouts throughout this season.  And while the season is winding down, the action is only heating up.  This will be the first time the top 6 teams in the state finally get to duke it out, and it looks to be closest as ever.

The only "safe" bet would be Fayetteville-Manlius, and we use safe hesitantly.  At this level, nothing is ever guarenteed, but the Hornets have gone undefeated by a healthy margin throughout the season.  That doesn't mean they will be uncontested.  As shown last year, one false step, one off-pace runner could change the outcome drastically.  All pieces of the puzzle will have to fit in.  Those pieces include the fastest seeded runner of the meet, Bryce Millar, along with other top finishers Andrew Berge and Peter Ryan.

The challengers?  Well, take your pick.  Liverpool handily took over the Federation meet, but Saratoga ran well behind what they proved at the State meet.  When you combine the two efforts, you get a story much closer.  Race conditions at Feds were some of the most congested ever, and the same situation could very well happen again.  How Saratoga has learned from the Fed meet could change the outcome.  Not to count anyone out, Northport tied that Saratoga team at States, and have a very strong pack.  They sat out the Fed meet, and may have the fresh legs to have the extra bounce.  The two CHSAA entries, Chaminade and St. Anthony's, are a little bit back from the front, but are still within a reasonable striking distance.

Amongst the top teams, some of the fastest individuals get mixed up well.  Northport  has Mike Brannigan, who battled Millar to the line at the State meet, as well as Tim McGowan.  Expect a rematch.  Saratoga has the Aidan Tooker, Jay Navin double up front as well,  Liverpool is a more pack running team than the others, but Ben Petrella and Dan Muldoon can get the job done just as well.

NXN-NY Boys Projections                              

    Team                        Pts     1    2    3    4    5   (6)  (7)
  1 Fayetteville-Manlius        60      1    4    9   21   25   47   61  
      Total Time: 2:08      Average: 25.60      1-5 Split: 26
  2 Liverpool                   88      7   12   18   22   29   63   81  
      Total Time: 2:39      Average: 31.80      1-5 Split: 27
  3 Saratoga Springs            90      5   11   16   17   41   70   90  
      Total Time: 2:43      Average: 32.60      1-5 Split: 44
  4 Northport                   100     2   10   23   31   34   67   83  
      Total Time: 2:56      Average: 35.20      1-5 Split: 37
  5 Chaminade                   133     3    6   24   48   52   65   84  
      Total Time: 3:36      Average: 43.20      1-5 Split: 58
  6 St. Anthony's               145     8   20   33   38   46   60   76  
      Total Time: 3:51      Average: 46.20      1-5 Split: 46
  7 Syosset                     199    26   35   40   44   54   72   82  
      Total Time: 4:59      Average: 59.80      1-5 Split: 32
  8 North Rockland              202    15   37   39   49   62   69   85  
      Total Time: 5:01      Average: 1:00.20      1-5 Split: 58
  9 Tappan Zee                  245    14   36   42   73   80   86   92  
      Total Time: 5:46      Average: 1:09.20      1-5 Split: 1:18
 10 Webster Thomas              254    27   50   51   58   68   79   87  
      Total Time: 6:03      Average: 1:12.60      1-5 Split: 47
 11 Ithaca                      258    13   56   59   64   66   71   78  
      Total Time: 6:05      Average: 1:13.00      1-5 Split: 1:04

Boys Individuals
The fight for those individual spots has been blown wide open as NXN-Finalist Mickey Burke has chosen the Foot Locker route, along with Ryan Udvadia.  Depending on team positioning, Brannigan/Tooker are interchangeable as the top spots for the individual bid.  It all depends on the At-Large selections, so we very well may not know who is going until early next Tuesday.  Don't leave Bowdoin Park dissappointed with seventh or eigth place, because that very well may get you a ticket this year.

Those competing outside the team-sphere?  Last years finalist TJ Hornberger of Lake Shore is the safest bet, having a great season that was capped off with a win at the State Meet.  Behind him, Brian Cook of Pearl River ran the 8th fastest time at Bowdoin Park ever in winning the Fed Meet a week later, and looks to be another safe choice.

After those two, the waters get muddied up some.  Josh Dyrland has looked strong in his efforts both in the early season, and the post, but Tom Slattery has also been having a breakout season.  At Manhattan, Marco Pompilj made sure to point out that NXN was the end goal of the season, and the states former fastest freshmen has been paving his way so far.  Booker and Gronostaj of Section 2 have been looking strong as well, and could pull off a sleeper pick similar to Philo Germano's own Section 2 win last year.  Benito Muniz could also pull off a spot after qualifying last year.

Top Contenders Top Challengers
1. Mike Brannigan - Northport 6. Marco Pompilj - Collegiate
2. TJ Hornberger - Lake Shore 7. Aidan Tooker - Saratoga
3. Brian Cook - Pearl River 8. Stephen Booker - Baldwinsville
4. Josh Dyrland - Irondequoit 9. Sean Kelly - Chaminade
5.  Tom Slattery - Chaminade 10. Pat Tucker - St. Anthony's

Girls Teams

The girls of Fayetteville-Manlius come into the race as the #1 ranked team in the nation, despite posting two close losses in the early season, more than the past six years combined.  That's probably because the Hornets know how to peak its' runners better than anyone else in the business.  Led by Anika Avery, Jenna Farrell, and Alana Pearl, look for the team to take the race as training for their 5th runner.  That doesn't mean they will be taking the race as anything but fast, as Avery could take home the individual win.

The story behind the Hornets has recently become complicated.  Sophia Tasselmyer, formely of Starpoint, has transferred to East Aurora.  Tasselmyer herself  had been a top-ten runner in the state, and could prove to be the game changer in the second place battle.  However, with her running with the Blue Devils, the Blue Streaks still come in as the favorites.  However, much like the boys, it depends on which Saratoga comes to race.  At the state meet, Saratoga took a strong second place in the varsity merge, with good performances all around.  At Feds, the young team was swallowed by the crowd, and defeated by a strong John Jay- Cross River team.

And there in lies the problem of predicting this kind of race.  Anything can happen.  John Jay, using their speed ratings from Feds compared against States, would only finish ninth.  But they proved they could capitilize on the conditions, and could very well take second.  The same could be said for both Queensbury and Suffern, who have been running strong this season.  Too many unknowns to give a clear answer here, as the race could play out as unpredictable as Feds.

As for individuals competing for teams, Tasselmyer is a very strong choice to grab an individual spot, as well as new teammate Marta McLaughlin.  Depending where Suffern finishes, Kate Zendell and Rachel Ludwikowski are right in the range for individual qualifiers.


Girls NXN NY Projections                      
    Team                        Pts     1    2    3    4    5   (6)  (7)
  1 Fayetteville-Manlius        40      2    4    5    7   22   25   53  
      Total Time: 45      Average: 9.00      1-5 Split: 24
  2 Saratoga Springs            95      9   16   18   24   28   45   52  
      Total Time: 1:54      Average: 22.80      1-5 Split: 23
  3 East Aurora                 111     3   10   13   41   44   69   75  
      Total Time: 2:08      Average: 25.60      1-5 Split: 48
  4 Queensbury                  157    15   19   32   33   58   79   99  
      Total Time: 3:05      Average: 37.00      1-5 Split: 51
  5 Suffern                     166     6    8   29   57   66   93   118
      Total Time: 3:13      Average: 38.60      1-5 Split: 1:11
  6 Elmira                      181     1   23   39   50   68   106  111
      Total Time: 3:32      Average: 42.40      1-5 Split: 1:21
  7 Webster Thomas              191    14   31   36   46   64   90   104
      Total Time: 3:42      Average: 44.40      1-5 Split: 58
  8 Pearl River                 198    12   34   48   49   55   73   81  
      Total Time: 3:47      Average: 45.40      1-5 Split: 48
  9 John Jay Cross River        208    20   30   42   56   60   85   109
      Total Time: 4:02      Average: 48.40      1-5 Split: 46
 10 Northport                   274    26   37   61   74   76   77   95  
      Total Time: 5:26      Average: 1:05.20      1-5 Split: 1:00

Girls Individuals
Breaking 19 minutes looks to be the magic mark for a girls qualification this year.  With five of the states top ten athletes running Foot Locker, the back spots at NXN will be hotly contested.  Up front, you have Alex Cooper of Rush-Henrietta and Abbey Wheeler of Elmira looking like the safest bets.  Cooper is coming off a strong Federation meet win, while Wheeler has been having a breakout season all year.  Without Kennedy Jensen competing, Bella Burda and Siobhan Quinn are the other former finalists.  Burda has had up and down races all season, and could punch her return ticket to NXN just as easily as anyone else.  Quinn is no stranger to the race either, qualifying last year.  If she runs with teammate Cooper, the two could pull eachother across the country.  Then begins the toss up.  Stephanie Gerland has been a force over the past few years.  In the challenger range is Erin Jaskot of Tappan Zee, who has broken that 19minute mark at her state qualifier.  If she has a clear path through the congestion, she will head to Oregon. UPDATE:  Kelly Hayes and Gianna Frontera were doubled entered at both FL and NXN.  Frontera will run NXN as a prior regional champ, and should be a contender.

Top Contenders Top Challengers
1. Alex Cooper - Rush-Henrietta 6. Siobhan Quinn - Rush Henrietta
2. Abbey Wheeler - Elmira 7. Rachel Ludwikowski - Suffern
3. Stephanie Gerland - Garden City 8. Kaylee Scott - Holy Names
4. Bella Burda - Arlington 9. Kate Zendell - Suffern
5. Erin Jaskot - Tappan Zee 10. Kelly Hayes - Pearl River



Foot Locker Northeast Regionals - Full out by Thurs


As always, it will be a tight year at Foot Locker.  However, it seems that the backend of the field will be watered down by those competing at NXN-NE.  Top ten rated athletes below.

Christian Alvarado   Fairfield Prep CT 193
Mickey Burke   Rush-Henrietta NY 193
Corgliano, Louis   Hammonton NJ 192
Kroon, Kyle   Toms River South NJ 192
Josef Holt    Telstar-ME 190
Alex Ostberg   Darien - CT 190
Steve Maine   Highland Regional - NJ 190
Colin Abert   Easton Area - Pa 190
Corti, Craig   Wallkill Valley NJ 189
Hanko, Josiah    Trinity Christian NJ 189
Paul Hogan   Burlington MA 188
Gabe Montague   Newton North - MA 188
Dan Curts   Ellsworth ME 187
Ryan Udvadia   Shoreham-Wading River 187
Ross Wilson   Council Rock North - PA 187
Scott Meehan   Pope John XXIII 187
Kyle Kroon 12 Toms River NJ 15:46.0
Chris Alvarado 12 Fairfield CT 15:49.1
Josiah Hanko 12 Montville NJ 16:03.0
Stephen Maine 12 Laurel Springs NJ 16:12.5
Josef Andrews 12 Bethel ME 16:14.3
Paul Hogan 12 Burlington MA 16:20.0
Daniel Curts 12 Ellsworth ME 16:20.8
Sam Webb 11 Yardley PA 16:31.9
Benjamin Szuhaj 11 Philadelphia PA 16:36.5
Louis Corgliano 12 Hammonton NJ 16:40.0
Colin Abert 11 Easton PA 16:40.2
Owen Gonser 12 Wrentham MA 16:42.2
Daniel Moverman 12 North Easton MA 16:46.3












Tessa and Hannah looks like a race we've all been waiting for.  Unfortunately, Jossette Norris of NJ, a top seeded athlete, is out for the remainder of her season, and won't be racing.  Same story for Kennedy Weisner of PA.  Look for NY to have a good showing.  Top 15 entries below.

Tessa Barrett           Abington Heights PA 158
Briana Gess Haddonfield NJ 151
Hannah Debalsi Staples HS - CT 150.73
Anoush Shedadeh Larchmont NY 148
Katie Lembo Penfield NY 144
Megan Reilly Warwick NY 144
Mady Clahane Cumberland Valley PA 144
Regan Rome Dallas PA 143
Jessica Lawson Corning NY 142
Courtney Thompson Saint John Vianney 141
Kirstin Sandreuter Greely HS - ME 139.8
Dana Klein Gill St. Bernards - CT 139
Kaley Richards Lowell - MA 139
Denise Branch Cardozo NY  138
Barry, Mackenzie West Morris Mendham NJ 138
Anna Flynn Ursuline NY 138
Gabrielle Richichi New Fairfield-CT 137.73
Olilvia Lantz Manchester Essex 137.46
Katie Lembo 12 Penfield NY 18:11.0
Regan Rome 12 Dallas PA 18:13.3
Anoush Shehadeh 11 Larchmont NY 18:15.0
MacKenzie Barry 12 Mendham NJ 18:23.0
Marissa Saenger 12 Clarence NY 18:31.3
Megan Reilly 10 Warwick NY 18:35.8
Kennedy Weisner 12 Saint Marys PA 18:36.8
Kara Steinke 12 Collegeville PA 18:53.8
Josette Norris 12 Tenafly NJ 18:54.3
Paige Duca 11 Rockville Centre NY 18:56.8
Mady Clahane 10 Mechanicsburg PA 18:57.3
Erin Dietz 11 Bedford MA 19:06.3
Paige Stoner 12 Pottsville PA 19:12.5
Victoria Dippold 11 St Marys PA 19:16.8
Denise Branch 12 Jamaica NY 19:17.4