MileSplit NY - It's nationals season for the folks of the Northeast. Perspectives have changed from trying to beat out the best of the state, to competing with the best of the best.
Teams and athletes have two options for those who wish to extend their season. To oversimplify, the Nike Cross Regionals are for teams looking to continue, and the Foot Locker Regional is for the individual. There is some slight variation in these perspectives, but more on that later.
Because of scheduling, it is either one or the other. Both events have some of NY's top talent, and our full Foot Locker preview will be out on tomorrow.
Also of note, teams are not allowed to use their school names, so club names are required. Below are some highlights.
Nike Cross Regionals - New York
*Note: Team predictions are from a state merge, averaged with Fed, which scored speed ratings from the NYSPHSAA, AIS, PSAL, and CHSAA meet.
One team race to rule them all. There have been close calls, single point victories, and full scale blowouts throughout this season. And while the season is winding down, the action is only heating up. This will be the first time the top 6 teams in the state finally get to duke it out, and it looks to be closest as ever.
The only "safe" bet would be Fayetteville-Manlius, and we use safe hesitantly. At this level, nothing is ever guarenteed, but the Hornets have gone undefeated by a healthy margin throughout the season. That doesn't mean they will be uncontested. As shown last year, one false step, one off-pace runner could change the outcome drastically. All pieces of the puzzle will have to fit in. Those pieces include the fastest seeded runner of the meet, Bryce Millar, along with other top finishers Andrew Berge and Peter Ryan.
The challengers? Well, take your pick. Liverpool handily took over the Federation meet, but Saratoga ran well behind what they proved at the State meet. When you combine the two efforts, you get a story much closer. Race conditions at Feds were some of the most congested ever, and the same situation could very well happen again. How Saratoga has learned from the Fed meet could change the outcome. Not to count anyone out, Northport tied that Saratoga team at States, and have a very strong pack. They sat out the Fed meet, and may have the fresh legs to have the extra bounce. The two CHSAA entries, Chaminade and St. Anthony's, are a little bit back from the front, but are still within a reasonable striking distance.
Amongst the top teams, some of the fastest individuals get mixed up well. Northport has Mike Brannigan, who battled Millar to the line at the State meet, as well as Tim McGowan. Expect a rematch. Saratoga has the Aidan Tooker, Jay Navin double up front as well, Liverpool is a more pack running team than the others, but Ben Petrella and Dan Muldoon can get the job done just as well.
NXN-NY Boys Projections ========================================================================== Team Pts 1 2 3 4 5 (6) (7) ========================================================================== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius 60 1 4 9 21 25 47 61 Total Time: 2:08 Average: 25.60 1-5 Split: 26 2 Liverpool 88 7 12 18 22 29 63 81 Total Time: 2:39 Average: 31.80 1-5 Split: 27 3 Saratoga Springs 90 5 11 16 17 41 70 90 Total Time: 2:43 Average: 32.60 1-5 Split: 44 4 Northport 100 2 10 23 31 34 67 83 Total Time: 2:56 Average: 35.20 1-5 Split: 37 5 Chaminade 133 3 6 24 48 52 65 84 Total Time: 3:36 Average: 43.20 1-5 Split: 58 6 St. Anthony's 145 8 20 33 38 46 60 76 Total Time: 3:51 Average: 46.20 1-5 Split: 46 7 Syosset 199 26 35 40 44 54 72 82 Total Time: 4:59 Average: 59.80 1-5 Split: 32 8 North Rockland 202 15 37 39 49 62 69 85 Total Time: 5:01 Average: 1:00.20 1-5 Split: 58 9 Tappan Zee 245 14 36 42 73 80 86 92 Total Time: 5:46 Average: 1:09.20 1-5 Split: 1:18 10 Webster Thomas 254 27 50 51 58 68 79 87 Total Time: 6:03 Average: 1:12.60 1-5 Split: 47 11 Ithaca 258 13 56 59 64 66 71 78 Total Time: 6:05 Average: 1:13.00 1-5 Split: 1:04
The fight for those individual spots has been blown wide open as NXN-Finalist Mickey Burke has chosen the Foot Locker route, along with Ryan Udvadia. Depending on team positioning, Brannigan/Tooker are interchangeable as the top spots for the individual bid. It all depends on the At-Large selections, so we very well may not know who is going until early next Tuesday. Don't leave Bowdoin Park dissappointed with seventh or eigth place, because that very well may get you a ticket this year.
Those competing outside the team-sphere? Last years finalist TJ Hornberger of Lake Shore is the safest bet, having a great season that was capped off with a win at the State Meet. Behind him, Brian Cook of Pearl River ran the 8th fastest time at Bowdoin Park ever in winning the Fed Meet a week later, and looks to be another safe choice.
After those two, the waters get muddied up some. Josh Dyrland has looked strong in his efforts both in the early season, and the post, but Tom Slattery has also been having a breakout season. At Manhattan, Marco Pompilj made sure to point out that NXN was the end goal of the season, and the states former fastest freshmen has been paving his way so far. Booker and Gronostaj of Section 2 have been looking strong as well, and could pull off a sleeper pick similar to Philo Germano's own Section 2 win last year. Benito Muniz could also pull off a spot after qualifying last year.
|Top Contenders||Top Challengers|
|1. Mike Brannigan - Northport||6. Marco Pompilj - Collegiate|
|2. TJ Hornberger - Lake Shore||7. Aidan Tooker - Saratoga|
|3. Brian Cook - Pearl River||8. Stephen Booker - Baldwinsville|
|4. Josh Dyrland - Irondequoit||9. Sean Kelly - Chaminade|
|5. Tom Slattery - Chaminade||10. Pat Tucker - St. Anthony's|
The girls of Fayetteville-Manlius come into the race as the #1 ranked team in the nation, despite posting two close losses in the early season, more than the past six years combined. That's probably because the Hornets know how to peak its' runners better than anyone else in the business. Led by Anika Avery, Jenna Farrell, and Alana Pearl, look for the team to take the race as training for their 5th runner. That doesn't mean they will be taking the race as anything but fast, as Avery could take home the individual win.
The story behind the Hornets has recently become complicated. Sophia Tasselmyer, formely of Starpoint, has transferred to East Aurora. Tasselmyer herself had been a top-ten runner in the state, and could prove to be the game changer in the second place battle. However, with her running with the Blue Devils, the Blue Streaks still come in as the favorites. However, much like the boys, it depends on which Saratoga comes to race. At the state meet, Saratoga took a strong second place in the varsity merge, with good performances all around. At Feds, the young team was swallowed by the crowd, and defeated by a strong John Jay- Cross River team.
And there in lies the problem of predicting this kind of race. Anything can happen. John Jay, using their speed ratings from Feds compared against States, would only finish ninth. But they proved they could capitilize on the conditions, and could very well take second. The same could be said for both Queensbury and Suffern, who have been running strong this season. Too many unknowns to give a clear answer here, as the race could play out as unpredictable as Feds.
As for individuals competing for teams, Tasselmyer is a very strong choice to grab an individual spot, as well as new teammate Marta McLaughlin. Depending where Suffern finishes, Kate Zendell and Rachel Ludwikowski are right in the range for individual qualifiers.
Girls NXN NY Projections ========================================================================== Team Pts 1 2 3 4 5 (6) (7) ========================================================================== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius 40 2 4 5 7 22 25 53 Total Time: 45 Average: 9.00 1-5 Split: 24 2 Saratoga Springs 95 9 16 18 24 28 45 52 Total Time: 1:54 Average: 22.80 1-5 Split: 23 3 East Aurora 111 3 10 13 41 44 69 75 Total Time: 2:08 Average: 25.60 1-5 Split: 48 4 Queensbury 157 15 19 32 33 58 79 99 Total Time: 3:05 Average: 37.00 1-5 Split: 51 5 Suffern 166 6 8 29 57 66 93 118 Total Time: 3:13 Average: 38.60 1-5 Split: 1:11 6 Elmira 181 1 23 39 50 68 106 111 Total Time: 3:32 Average: 42.40 1-5 Split: 1:21 7 Webster Thomas 191 14 31 36 46 64 90 104 Total Time: 3:42 Average: 44.40 1-5 Split: 58 8 Pearl River 198 12 34 48 49 55 73 81 Total Time: 3:47 Average: 45.40 1-5 Split: 48 9 John Jay Cross River 208 20 30 42 56 60 85 109 Total Time: 4:02 Average: 48.40 1-5 Split: 46 10 Northport 274 26 37 61 74 76 77 95 Total Time: 5:26 Average: 1:05.20 1-5 Split: 1:00
Breaking 19 minutes looks to be the magic mark for a girls qualification this year. With five of the states top ten athletes running Foot Locker, the back spots at NXN will be hotly contested. Up front, you have Alex Cooper of Rush-Henrietta and Abbey Wheeler of Elmira looking like the safest bets. Cooper is coming off a strong Federation meet win, while Wheeler has been having a breakout season all year. Without Kennedy Jensen competing, Bella Burda and Siobhan Quinn are the other former finalists. Burda has had up and down races all season, and could punch her return ticket to NXN just as easily as anyone else. Quinn is no stranger to the race either, qualifying last year. If she runs with teammate Cooper, the two could pull eachother across the country. Then begins the toss up. Stephanie Gerland has been a force over the past few years. In the challenger range is Erin Jaskot of Tappan Zee, who has broken that 19minute mark at her state qualifier. If she has a clear path through the congestion, she will head to Oregon. UPDATE: Kelly Hayes and Gianna Frontera were doubled entered at both FL and NXN. Frontera will run NXN as a prior regional champ, and should be a contender.
|Top Contenders||Top Challengers|
|1. Alex Cooper - Rush-Henrietta||6. Siobhan Quinn - Rush Henrietta|
|2. Abbey Wheeler - Elmira||7. Rachel Ludwikowski - Suffern|
|3. Stephanie Gerland - Garden City||8. Kaylee Scott - Holy Names|
|4. Bella Burda - Arlington||9. Kate Zendell - Suffern|
|5. Erin Jaskot - Tappan Zee||10. Kelly Hayes - Pearl River|
Foot Locker Northeast Regionals - Full out by Thurs
As always, it will be a tight year at Foot Locker. However, it seems that the backend of the field will be watered down by those competing at NXN-NE. Top ten rated athletes below.
|Christian Alvarado||Fairfield Prep CT||193|
|Mickey Burke||Rush-Henrietta NY||193|
|Corgliano, Louis||Hammonton NJ||192|
|Kroon, Kyle||Toms River South NJ||192|
|Alex Ostberg||Darien - CT||190|
|Steve Maine||Highland Regional - NJ||190|
|Colin Abert||Easton Area - Pa||190|
|Corti, Craig||Wallkill Valley NJ||189|
|Hanko, Josiah||Trinity Christian NJ||189|
|Paul Hogan||Burlington MA||188|
|Gabe Montague||Newton North - MA||188|
|Dan Curts||Ellsworth ME||187|
|Ryan Udvadia||Shoreham-Wading River||187|
|Ross Wilson||Council Rock North - PA||187|
|Scott Meehan||Pope John XXIII||187|
|NAME||YR||CITY||2012 FLCCNE FINISH|
|Kyle Kroon||12||Toms River||NJ||15:46.0|
|Stephen Maine||12||Laurel Springs||NJ||16:12.5|
|Daniel Moverman||12||North Easton||MA||16:46.3|
Tessa and Hannah looks like a race we've all been waiting for. Unfortunately, Jossette Norris of NJ, a top seeded athlete, is out for the remainder of her season, and won't be racing. Same story for Kennedy Weisner of PA. Look for NY to have a good showing. Top 15 entries below.
|Tessa Barrett||Abington Heights PA||158|
|Briana Gess||Haddonfield NJ||151|
|Hannah Debalsi||Staples HS - CT||150.73|
|Anoush Shedadeh||Larchmont NY||148|
|Katie Lembo||Penfield NY||144|
|Megan Reilly||Warwick NY||144|
|Mady Clahane||Cumberland Valley PA||144|
|Regan Rome||Dallas PA||143|
|Jessica Lawson||Corning NY||142|
|Courtney Thompson||Saint John Vianney||141|
|Kirstin Sandreuter||Greely HS - ME||139.8|
|Dana Klein||Gill St. Bernards - CT||139|
|Kaley Richards||Lowell - MA||139|
|Denise Branch||Cardozo NY||138|
|Barry, Mackenzie||West Morris Mendham NJ||138|
|Anna Flynn||Ursuline NY||138|
|Gabrielle Richichi||New Fairfield-CT||137.73|
|Olilvia Lantz||Manchester Essex||137.46|
|NAME||YR||CITY||2012 FLCCNE FINISH|
|Kennedy Weisner||12||Saint Marys||PA||18:36.8|
|Paige Duca||11||Rockville Centre||NY||18:56.8|
|Victoria Dippold||11||St Marys||PA||19:16.8|