TullyRunners Releases Girls National Team Preseason Report


  • Girls - Contending National Teams
  •  ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
  •  
  • Purpose
  •  ... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
  •  
  • Ranking Method
  •  ... General extension of the 2016 XC season into 2017
  •  ... Focus on cross country results ... modify selectively with track results
  •  ... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
  •  ... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races
  •  ... Consider performance in championship races
  •  ... Initially, combine about 85-90 teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
  •  ... Eliminate 10-20 teams with the worst scores in an iterative process
  •  ... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors


Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.


Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2017 race results are what count.


I did add some Regional Projections this year.



 Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2017


      School                 State   Score    NXN Region
      --------------------   -----   -----    ----------
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius    NY      110     New York
  2   Keller                  TX      285     South
  3   Broomfield              CO      295     Southwest
  4   Buchanan                CA      320     California
  5   Mountain Vista          CO      340     Southwest
  6   Davis Senior            CA      335     California
  7   Sunset                  OR      350     Northwest
  8   Edina                   MN      370     Heartland
  9   Jesuit                  OR      370     Northwest
  10  Great Oak               CA      390     California
  11  Mountain View-ID        ID      395     Northwest
  12  Naperville North        IL      405     Midwest
  13  Saratoga                NY      405     New York
  14  Fort Wayne Carroll      IN      420     Midwest
  15  Cardinal Gibbons        NC      420     Southeast
  16  Centerville             OH      425     Midwest
  17  Lyons Township          IL      425     Midwest
  18  North Rockland          NY      430     New York
  19  Bozeman                 MT      440     Northwest
  20  Palos Verdes            CA      445     California
  21  Johnston                IA      445     Heartland
  22  Pine Crest              FL      445     Southeast
  23  Canyon/Anaheim          CA      445     California
  24  Billings Sr             MT      450     Northwest
  25  Troy                    OH      450     Midwest
  26  Southlake Carroll       TX      450     South
  27  Minnetonka              MN      455     Heartland
  28  Camas                   WA      460     Northwest
  29  Blacksburg              VA      460     Southeast
  30  Carmel                  IN      460     Midwest
  30* North Hunterdon         NJ      490+    Northeast
  30* Milton                  MA      490+    Northeast
  30* Colts Neck              NJ      490+    Northeast (updated July 30)
    * added above (from below) for multiple team
       regional representation from each region


Comments