TullyRunners Releases Boys National Team Preseason Report


  • Boys - Contending National Teams
  •  ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information

  • Purpose
  •  ... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall

  • Ranking Method
  •  ... General extension of the 2016 XC season into 2017
  •  ... Focus on cross country results ... modify selectively with track results
  •  ... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
  •  ... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races
  •  ... Consider performance in championship races
  •  ... Initially, combine about 70 teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
  •  ... Eliminate 10-20 teams with worst scores in an iterative process
  •  ... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors


Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.


Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2017 race results are what count.


Also Remember ... Most top boy's teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ... Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams below requires guessing - occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess".


I did add some Regional Projections this year.


View The Full Article Here (With Analysis)


 
 Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2017

      School                 State   Score     NXN Region
      --------------------   -----   -----     ----------
  1   Loudoun Valley          VA      220      Southeast
  2   Great Oak               CA      235      California
  3   Downers Grove North     IL      300      Midwest
  4   Carmel                  IN      320      Midwest
  5   Roosevelt               CA      325      California
  6   Wayzata                 MN      330      Heartland
  7   Christian Brothers      NJ      340      Northeast
  8   St. Xavier (Lou)        KY      360      Southeast
  9   Crater                  OR      370      Northwest
  10  Green Hope              NC      375      Southeast
  11  The Woodlands           TX      385      South
  12  Princeton               NJ      385      Northeast 
  13  Timpanogos              UT      395      Southwest
  14  Dana Hills              CA      395      California
  15  Bellarmine-CA           CA      395      California
  16  Burnt Hills             NY      400      New York
  17  Springville             UT      410      Southwest
  18  Central Valley          WA      410      Northwest
  19  Saint John's            MA      420      Northeast
  20  Loyola                  CA      425      California
  21  Davis UT                UT      430      Southwest
  22  Staples                 CT      440      Northeast
  23  Pleasant Valley         IA      440      Heartland
  24  York                    IL      445      Midwest
  25  Brentwood Academy       TN      450      Southeast
  26  St. Anthony's           NY      450      New York
  27  Fairport                NY      455      New York
  28  Palmer Ridge            CO      460      Southwest
  29  Bozeman                 MT      470      Northwest
  30  Council Rock North      PA      480      Northeast
  30* Flower Mound            TX*     480*     South
  30* Kingwood                TX*     480*     South
    * added above (from below) for multiple team
       regional representation from each region


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