Team Snapshot Overview
The
snapshot view gives the basic info about the Eastern States field
listed by general estimated TR (Tully Runners) speed rating averages.
For the NY teams, the TR score is fairly precise based on the 2016
action. For outside-of-NY teams, the TR is the score for the team's last
big meet and is thus less comprehensive than the NY teams'
season-compiled scores. It could miss runners who were not at the
selected meet. There are also some teams that have not yet competed in a
meet with posted results, and obviously there is a lot of guesswork
needed there. Finally, there are some squads that will only be putting
one or two runners on the line.
The rankings cited are from MileSplit National or State listings. Rankings are from the most recent week.
The snapshot listing is not intended to be a prediction of the finish in the race. Some teams are extremely unbalanced with one or two runners at the top and a big gap to following runners, and these teams generally do not finish as high as their estimated TR would indicate, if they are among the top teams where strong packs are good. The balance factor switches for teams in the bottom part of the results though, where having one or two high-flying runners can move a team up. The Spread number in parentheses following the TR average indicates the gap between the first and fifth runner numbers, with each point equaling about 3 seconds in a 5K race or maybe 2.67 seconds at VCP's 2.5 mile course.
TRs are general estimates of team strength, so use them here as just broad indicators of the range in which a team is expected to run. Based on a big database of past results, the TRs serve as remarkably accurate predictors for races that have enough associated team data, and they are many orders of magnitude better than the divining rods or straight time results that are often used to estimate team strengths.
| Team | 2015 Place | National and Regional Rank | Speed Rating (TR) | TR Top 5 and Spread ( ) |
| CBA - Lincroft | 3rd in ES | US #5, NJ #1 | 173.2 | 181-174-172-170-169 (12) |
| Carlisle | -- | PA #1 | 171.0 | 193-183-172-155-152 (41) |
| Fayetteville-Manlius | 5th in ES | NY #3 | 171.0 | 182-173-170-168-162 (20) |
| Princeton | -- | NJ #3 | 170.8 | 186-181-165-160-158 (28) |
| Saratoga | -- | NY #2 | 170.2 | 178-177-171-163-162 (16) |
| Don Bosco | 10th in ES | NJ #7 | 170.2 | 182-177-173-165-154 (28) |
| Liverpool | 4th in ES | NY #9 | 170.0 | 185-184-174-159-148 (37) |
| Downingtown West | 1st in ES | US #17, PA #5 | 169.2 | 171-169-168-161-157 (14) |
| Ithaca | 1st in C | NY #6 | 169.0 | 179-173-172-161-160 (19) |
| Xavier | 2nd in E | NY #5 | 168.2 | 174-172-170-164-161 (13) |
| Sachem North | 2nd in A | 168.2 (2015) | 185-184-160-160-144 (41) | |
| Bolles | -- | FL #3 | 166.0 | 182-169-161-161-157 (25) |
| LaSalle College PA | 14th in ES | PA #2 | 166.6 | 172-169-167-163-162 (10) |
| Ocean Township | 12th in D | 165.8 | 187-166-163-156-155 (32) | |
| Warwick Valley | 1st in F | 164.6 | 174-170-166-159-154 (20) | |
| Salesianum | 21st in ES | DE #1 | 164.2 | 171-170-166-158-156 (26) |
| Baldwinsville | 2nd in B | 164.2 | 168-164-163-163-163 (5) | |
| Guilderland | 16th in ES | 164.0 | 185-180-161-148-146 (39) | |
| Bethlehem | 3rd in E | 163.6 | 168-168-159-153-150 (18) | |
| Pittsford Mendon | 11th in ES | 162.4 | 185-162-157-155-153 (32) | |
| Mount Academy | 3rd in D | 162.2 | 171-165-163-158-154 (17) | |
| Danbury | 1st in G | CT #2 | 162.2 | 168-165-160-160-158 (10) |
| Severna Park | -- | MD #1 | 161.8 | 165-164-163-162-155 (10) |
| Germantown Friends | 22nd in ES | 160.0 | 186-161-155-154-144 (42) | |
| Broughton | 2nd in ES | 158.0 | 165-159-158-157-151 (14) | |
| Cicero-North Syracuse | 7th in F | 157.8 | 169-164-153-152-151 (18) | |
| Tatnall | 18th in ES | DE #3 | 156.8 | 166-152-142-140-134 (32) |
| Barrington | 156.6 | 162-155-147-144-144 (18) | ||
| Mepham | 9th in B | 152.6 | 169-161-147-146-145 (23) | |
| West Chester Henderson | 152.0 | 168-155-147-145-145 (23) | ||
| Pascack Valley | 148.6 | 166-151-146-141-139 (27) | ||
| Bishop Shanahan | 145.2 | 177-147-137-133-122 (55) | ||
| Bellport | 22nd in E | 139.4 | 165-144-139-126-123 (42) | |
| Auburn | 137.6 | 142-139-138-135-134 (8) | ||
| Our Lady of Lourdes | 24th in F | 134.4 | 153-147-135-121-116 (37) |
Team Profiles - by Pole Position on Starting Line
Severna Park (MD)
Overview: The Falcons are the top-rated team in MD and should be among the top 25 teams in Eastern States.
Roster: Hugh O'Connor (165), Garrison Clark (164), Jonah Lane (163), Christian Isham (162), William Reed (155), Nicholas Plummer (155), Joseph LaFleche (141)
Team Data 166.8. Placed 5th in the Carlisle Challenge.
Comments: Severna Park has not been to Manhattan at least in recent years, but now as the top team in MD they will be trying to fly through the nasty back hills with a top pack that could push them into a spot among the top 15-20 teams if it can stay together.
Bolles (FL)
Overview: The Bulldogs are one of the top rated teams in FL and have a high-flying frontrunner who could move them into a top 10 place.
Roster: Charles Hicks (184), Chase Rivera (168), Christian Glover (163), Benjamin Foltz (162), George Lewis (158), Alexander Hastings (152)
Team Data 167.6. 1st in Katie Caples-Elite
Comments: Florida often sends a team up to catch some NYC sun, but this year one of the state's best is making the trip north to compete in Eastern States. Charles Hiscks is one of the top runners in FL though finding an accurate speed rating for him and the rest of the Bulldogs is challenging, but Hicks could get up among the top 10.
Tatnall (DE)
Overview: Tatnall is a smallish DE school which has made a name for itself as a mainstay at the Manhattan Invite, and often in the Eastern States for the guys. This year they will be fighting to break into the top 25 in the race.
Roster: Nicholas Garrett (166), Brendan Balthis (152), Larry Mathis (142), Max Hardin (140), Sasha Latina (142), Cole Bottorff (132)
Team Data 156.8. Placed 25th in Great American Race of Champions.
Comments: The placement at Great American indicates that Eastern States will be a challenge for the Hornets this year, but top guy Nick Garrett could place among the top 50 guys in a huge race.
Danbury (CT)
Overview: The Nutmeg State's 2nd ranked Hatters will be trying to fight their way up among the top 15 teams at Easter States after winning last year's G race.
Roster: Trevor Reed (168), Dan Nichols (165), Terrell Cunningham (160), Bradley Fox (160), Tyler Granja (158), Spencer Mead (150)
Team Data 162.2. 10th in Great American Race of Champions.
Comments: Danbury has a nice pack up toward the top that could move the team up higher than its speed ratings would indicate and possibly up among the top 15 after hauling away a big trophy last year.
Germantown Friends (PA)
Overview: The Tigers finished 22nd in Eastern States last year and will renewing their bid to break into the top 20 this year behind a star top runner.
Roster: Nick Dahl (186), Zach Goldberg (161), Colin Riley (155), Daniel Stassen (154), Jonnie Pless (144)
Team Data 160.0. Placed 11th in Paul Short - Brown.
Comments: Nick Dahl gives the Tigers a big presence up at the top as he battles for a top 5 finish after placing 50th last year
Baldwinsville (NY)
Overview: The Bees finished 2nd in the B race last year and are now ranked 14th in Class A in NY and will be battling on the fringes of a top 10 spot.
Roster: Cameron Morrissey (168), Adam Davis (164), Benjamin Timmons (163), Evan Vannatta (163), Garrett Vannatta (163), Evan Biedermann (163), Joe Licameli (161)
Team Data 164.2. 8tth in McQuaid-AAA
Comments: Baldwinsville often tends to run better than its speed rating would indicate becasue of its insanely small Spread number, but its hard to say whether the pack of Bees can stay together in the Van Cortlandt back hills.
Liverpool (NY)
Overview: The Warriors finished 4th in Eastern States last year as NY's top team on the way to a 10th place finish at NXN Nationals. This year they are expected to finish in the top 10 if the back of the lineup comes up a bit.
Roster: Ty Brownlow (185), Steve Schulz (184), Josh Hickmott (174), Emil Videman (159), Sekhon Gaganjot (148), Cullen McLaughlin (146), Justin Blowers (145)
Team Data 170.0. 4th in McQuaid AAA
Comments: Other than Carlisle with the Affolder brothers, no team has a stronger top 2 than Liverpool with Ty Brownlow and Steve Schulz. But with the huge group of top teams at Eastern States, the Warriors need to make sure that the big boost they get at the top does not slide away as all the teams hit the Tortosie and Hare area.
Carlisle (PA)
Overview: The Thundering Herd is PA's top team and are led by the stellar brother tandem of Noah and Sam Affolder who ran for Carthage NY in Eastern States in 2015. This year their team will be one of the favorites to win the race, and top guy Noah will be favored to retain his championship status..
Roster: Noah Affolder (193), Sam Affolder (183), Isaac Kole (170), Jack Wisner (155), Tyler Hallman (152), Max Fiorentino (158), Bryce Dunkleberger (141)
Team Data 171.0. 2nd in Carlisle Challenge.
Comments: Carlisle is coming off a big performance two weeks ago at its home meet after a 2nd place to Don Bosco, and the Affolder brothers have barely had time to catch their breaths after Noah's smashing of the course record for the McQuaid meet last Saturday. Now with a stronger squad behind them, the Affolders could be picking up individual and team title with the Thundering Herd if the back of the lneup can move up a bit more.
Fayetteville-Manlius (NY)
Overview: The Hornets placed 5th in Eastern States last year after winning the race in 2014, and they will looking to pull together a pack for another shot at a title.
Roster: Patrick Perry (182), Ben Otis (173), Garrett Brennan (170), Matthew Tripp (168), Jack Boltman (162), Max Perry (158), Jack Duncason (158)
Team Data 171.0, 2nd in McDaniel-Baxter Pre-States-7.
Comments: FM comes into Eastern States with a lot of experience after amny trips to NXN Nationals in recent years and a championship there in 2014. The question this year is how much the 5-6 guys can push up to give a team with one of the field's best speed ratings a kick at the back.
Broughton (NC)
Overview: The Capitals got blown up north by some wicked winds the week before Manhattan to finish in a close 2nd to Downington West in Eastern States last year. This year with a less powerful squad, they are back for more fun.
Roster: Stuart Holmes (165), Lanier Derbyshire (159), Jacob Wells (158), Andrew Brooks (157), Will Hopkins (151), Ryan Brown (150)
Team Data 158.0. 18th in Great American Race of Champions
Comments: Broughton has not been yet able to return to the form it had last year as one of the top contenders in Eastern States. This year the Capitals will be fighting for a top 20 place while it waits fors some key guys to develop.
Warwick Valley (NY)
Overview: The Wildcats won the F race last year and hope to ride the wake of a solid showing at Great American last weekend to a top 10 place in Eastern States.
Roster: Thomas Gardiner (174), Behailu Bekele-Acuri (170), Dan Lindstrom (166), Thomas Nafash (159), Jason Nafash (154), Sean Quinn (145)
Team Data 164.6. 8th in Great American Race of Champions.
Comments: Warwick Valley is still running a ways behind the preseason projections, so that could mean that that the Wildcats could be ready for a big surge in Eastern States as Transfer Behailu Bekele-Acuri joins Tom Gardiner at the top of the lineup and the back of the lineup has a growth spurt..
Cicero-North Syracuse (NY)
Overview: The Northstars take on Eastern States after running in the F race last year, and they will trying to break into the top 20.
Roster: Nathan Poirier (164), Brandon Martin (164), David Ware (153), John Perperian (152), Jason Hughes (151), Eric Bowen (151)
Team Data 157.8. 6th in Baldwinsville-Large.
Comments: The Northstars have a bit of a lower middle pack for Eastern State behind top guys Poirier and Martin and they have some shot at a top 20 showing.
La Salle College HS (PA)
Overview: The Explorers finished one place behind the Las Salle Rams of RI last year at 14th in Eastern States and the team looks to move up this year after a win at PIAA.
Roster: Evan Addison (172), Stephen Paul (169), Brendan Price (167), Greg Galbreath (163), Quinn O'Neill (162), Jack Galbreath (156), Nick Cardamone (146)
Team Data 166.6. 1st in PIAA-Gold.
Comments: La Salle has a solid pack behind top guy Evan Addison that helped them win at PIAA, and now we'll see if the Explorers can move well up in the top 10 with its good compression.
Sachem North (NY)
Overview: The Flaming Arrows finished 2nd in the A race last year, but they have been in hiding before their step-out race this year at Eastern States.
Roster: TRs from 2015: Jonathan Lauer (185), Christopher Tibbetts (184), Justin McGlinchey (160), Andreas Larsen (160), Vidit Parikh (144), Vincent Trippi (143)
Team Data NA
Comments: Sachem North is returning two of last year's top runners in Jonathan Lauer and Christopher Tibbetts, and Eastern States will be the first display of where they're at in 2016.
Barrington (RI)
Overview: The Eagles are will be tring to break into the top 25 in Eastern States.
Roster: Mars Bishop (175), Hayden Ivatta (162), Eliott Laidlaw (155), George Wicker (147), Brian Donahue (144), James Gunness (144), Max Augustin (142)
Team Data 156.6. 8th in Wood's Trail, 6th in Bowdoin-1
Comments: Barrington has been seeing some progress behind frontrunner Mars Bishop, and the Eagles appear to be on the fringes of a top 25 place.
Salesianum (DE)
Overview: The Sallies are the top rated team in DE and are coming off a win in their home meet.
Roster: George Steinhoff (171), Michael Keehan (170), Lucien Peach (166), Austin Berry (158), Kyle McCarthy (156), Sean Banko (153), Steve Banko (151)
Team Data 164.2. 1st in Salesianum Championship
Comments: Salesianum has a solid top 3, and a boost at the back could propel the Sallies into the top 10.
Christian Brothers Academy - Lincroft (NJ)
Overview: The Colts have won four of the previous eight Eastern States, and they will be among the favorites again as they enter with the highest speed rating of all the teams in the race. They were at NXN Nationals again last year.
Roster: Brian Hill (181), Patrick Kilcooley (174), Genaro Anzalone (172), Ryan Mele (170), Jay Boyle (169), JP Stark (163)
Team Data 173.2. 1st in Bowdoin-1
Comments: CBA is always a big presence in Eastern States, and it may be ready to reclaim the title it last won in 2013. Brian Hill leads a solid group of Colts whose 2nd-half charges in past years has earned them a lot of wins.
Xavier (NY)
Overview: Xavier finished 2nd in the E race in 2015, and now as the CHSAA's top rated team, it will be trying its hand against the best teams at Manhattan on a VCP course that the Knights are very familiar with.
Roster: Giancarlo Cipri (174), Sawyer Gwyn-Rowson (172), Josef Raphael Oettl (170), Michael Crorkin (164), Aidan Donahue (161), Fergus Mcdonnell (155)
Team Data 168.2. 2nd in McQuaid-AA
Comments: The Knights have been building their strength through the season as they strive to stay ahead of St. Anthony's in the CHSAA, and they have a shot to get up among the top 5 teams is they can keep growing at the back.
Blackstone Valley (MA)
Overview: The Beavers are sending Zack Bergeron down to get a run in at Eastern States.
Roster: Zack Bergeron (157)
Team Data NA
Comments: Good leg stretcher for Zack.
Downingtown West (PA)
Overview: The Whippetts won last year's Eastern States on the way to NXN Nationals, and this year they are nationally ranked and one of the favorites on Saturday.
Roster: Shaun Bullock (171), Drew Alansky (169), Jake O'Neill (168), Ryan Barton (161), Patrick Blair (157), Isaac Valdarrabano (155), Ben Codd (151)
Team Data 169.2. 3rd in Carlisle Challenge
Comments: DW may not have as high as speed ratings as last year, but they are still a team to be feared at Eastern States. The Whippets need some development at the back to contend among the top 5 this year.
Saratoga Springs (NY)
Overview: The Blue Streaks returrn to Eastern States at last and they will be among the favorites to take the title.
Roster: Declan Hines (178), Shea Weilbaker (177), Geoff Howles (171), Will Navin (163), Will Howe (162), Ezra Ruggles (166), Will Messier (160)
Team Data 170.2. 1st in McDaniel-Baxter Pre-States-1
Comments: Ranked 2nd in the state, Saratoga will be gunning for a title if the 4-5 spots can creep closer to the 170 mark behind Hines and Weilbaker.
Bellport (NY)
Overview: The Clippers are taking a shot running a ways behind the top teams in Eastern States.
Roster: Thomas Brock (165), Matthew Krompeer (144), Matthew Sabolenko (139), Tyler Zapata (126), Micheal Foley (123)
Team Data 139.4. 5th in Suffolk Coaches-B.
Comments: As they say, when at Manhattan, run with the big guys.
Ithaca (NY)
Overview: The Little Red are trying to make a big leap at Eastern States after winning the C race last year.
Roster: Silas Derfel (179), Jake Avery (173), Neil Kolhatkar (172), Ian Tomasik (161), Cole Eells (160), Noah Mattice (157), Ben Supron (156)
Team Data 169.0. 2nd in McQuaid-AAA
Comments: Ithaca has been turning in some solid results this year, and behind the Silas Derfel the #5 NY team will be among the favorites for a top 5 place in Eastern States.
Mepham (NY)
Overview: The Pirates will be battling for a top 25 place in Eastern States.
Roster: James Moehringer (169), Anthony Boyle (161), Matthew Gemma (147), Scott Sieger (146), Leonardo Cuozzo (145)
Team Data 152.6. 3rd in St. Anthony's
Comments: Mepham has a solid top two and has a shot at breaking into the top 25.
Guilderland (NY)
Overview: The Dutchmen will be trying to finish up among the top 15 teams behind their top tandem of Noahs.
Roster: Noah Carey (185), Noah Tindale (180), Andrew Horan (161), Angus Cropley (148), Sean Buerker (146), Anthony Cusato (144)
Team Data 164.0. 1st in John Killian
Comments: Guilderland doesn't have the depth to break into the top 10 in Eastern State, but Noah Carey and Noah Tindale should place very high and give the Dutchmen a good start to moving up on last year's 16th place finish.
West Chester Henderson (PA)
Overview: The Warriors will be battling for a spot among the top 25 in Eastern States.
Roster: Spencer Smucker (168), Calvin Pash (155), Ben Berkman (147), Stephen Heck (145), Josh Richard (145), Jake Dunleavy (139)
Team Data 152.0. 12th in Carlisle Challenge
Comments: WCH will be facing a big challenge this year to put together enough depth behind Spencer Smucker to get into the top 25.
Bishop Shanahan (PA)
Overview: The Eagles will be battling at the back of the field behind top guy Josh Hoey.
Roster: Josh Hoey (177), Jonah Hoey (147), Jonathan McCrory (137), Jack Ettien (133), Bradley Ingraham (122)
Team Data 145.2. 21st in Carlsile Challenge
Comments: Bishop Shanahan will have some fun with frontrunner Josh Hoey trying for a top 25 place, but the team will be at the back of the action.
Don Bosco (NJ)
Overview: The Ironmen won the first of the revived Eastern States races in 2008, and with one of the highest speed ratings in the field, they will have a shot at a second title.
Roster: David Rosas (182) Justin Touhey (177), Joseph Erskine (173), Ryan Nicholson (165), Matt Hartman (154), Devin O'Loughlin (147)
Team Data 170.2. 1st in Carlisle Challenge
Comments: Don Bosco got an impressive win at Carlisle over a number of top teams in this year's Eastern States, but now the question is whether the Ironmen have enough steel at the back of the lineup behind David Rosas and Justin Touhey to avoid getting pushed way back in a huge Eastern States field.
Auburn (NY)
Overview: The Maroons will be battling to stay out of the back spot in Eastern States.
Roster: Mike Lynch (142), Gavin Gorney (139), Greg Walsh (138), Jack Moochler (135), Nathaniel Lupo (134), Eric Ansteth (132)
Team Data 137.6. 2nd in Auburn
Comments: The Maroons come in as the team with the next to the lowest speed ratings in the race, so they have a chance to run hard and see if they can break into the top 30.
Germantown Academy (PA)
Overview: The Patriots will send the Ritz brothers for a run in Eastern States.
Roster: Owen Ritz (167), Daniel Ritz (113)
Team Data NA
Comments: Owen Ritz could finish among the top 50 in Eastern States.
Mount Academy (NY)
Overview: Mount sends a well-balanced team from its small program as it takes on Eastern States after finishing 3rd in the D race last year.
Roster: Daryl Blough (171), Brendan Baird (165), Kent Kurtz (163), Jamie Keiderling (158), Justin Compy (154), Bernard King (153)
Team Data 162.2. 5th in Bowdoin-2
Comments: Mount is used to running with the big guys from around the region, and this year it could be shooting for a top 15 place.
Our Lady of Lourdes (NY)
Overview: The guys from Po-Town will be looking to rise above their last place speed ratings in the field, and there's no place to go but up.
Roster: Will Whelan (153), Luke Della-Pietra (147), Bryan Casey (135), Alex Scotto (121), Ethan Romero (116), Luke Belardo (115)
Team Data 134.4. 10th in Brewster-2
Comments: The Warriors will have a challenge avoiding the bottom spot in Eastern States, but its great challenges that make life worth enjoying.
Pittsford Mendon (NY)
Overview: The Vikings are three-times reigning champs of NY's Class B state championship and will be looking to come close to their 11th place finish in Eastern States last year.
Roster: Nathan Lawler (185), Sam Lawler (162), Casey Woodward (157), Sam Trawick (155), Joshua McCarthy (153), Conor Fitzgerald (149), James Smith (149)
Team Data 162.4. 3rd in McQuaid-AA
Comments: The Vikings are in a rebuilding year behind top guy Nathan Lawler, but after a strong performance that earned them a 3rd in the McQuaid AA race, thing seem to be rounding into form for a top 15 place in the race.
Memorial (NJ)
Overview: One runner is supposedly coming, but no info is available.
Roster: Terry Varicelly
Team Data NA
Comments: No clue on this one.
Ocean Township (NJ)
Overview: The Spartans and frontrunner Elliot Gindi will be making a stab at the big times with a possible top 10 finish.
Roster: Elliot Gindi (187), Matt D'Auria (166), Dan Dombroski (163), Jesse Schmeizer (156), Korey Greene (155), Ben Miller (151), Tom D'Auria (149)
Team Data 165.8. 5th in NJ Shore Coaches-C
Comments: Spartan top guy Elliot Gindi comes into Eastern States with the second best speed rating, and that could give the team the boost it needs to get up among the top 10 to 15 teams.
Pascack Valley (NJ)
Overview: The Indians will be running among the top 30 teams in Eastern States.
Roster: Jeff Roberts (166), Mike Hayden (151), Sean Donohue (146), Isaac Denbeaux (141), Jake Putterman (139)
Team Data 148.6. 2nd in Brett Taylor-Soph
Comments: The Indians will be finishing towards the back of the pack.
Bethlehem (NY)
Overview: The Eagles finished 3rd in the E race last year and will be shooting for a top 15 place this year.
Roster: Cameron Davis (168), Riley Grossman (168), Jack Huber (159), Derek Baronski (153), Matt Cavaliere (150)
Team Data 163.6. 2nd in Ocean State-2
Comments: Bethlehem behind the top two of Cameron Davis and Riley Grossman should be in the running for a top 15 place.
Princeton (NJ)
Overview: A late entry, the Tigers are the 3rd ranked team in NJ and should be one of the state's three favorites in the race along with CBA and Don Bosco..
Roster: Alex Roth (186), William Hare (181), Cy Watsky (165), Jackson Donahue (160), Alex Ackerman (158), Nicholas Delaney (157), Will Ratner (151)
Team Data 170.8. 3rd in NJ Shore Coaches-C, 3rd in Bowdoin-2
Comments: The Tigers' speed rating is a combination of the NJ Shore and Bowdoin races so it's a best-case scenario, but they should be up among the top 5-7 teams behind their frontrunning Top 10-20 hopefuls, Alex Roth and William Hare.