My pre-season projection for National Boys Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State and other teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).
To a large extent, the team listing below is an extension of the 2015 XC season into 2016 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team were not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams ... Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had about 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams ... I intentionally included at least one team from each region in the top 30.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2016 race results are what count.
Also Remember ... Most top boy's
teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ...
Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams
below requires guessing -
occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess"
.
I did add some Regional Projections this year.
View The Full Article Here (With Analysis)
Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2016
School State Score NXN Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ----------
1 Neuqua Valley IL 270 Midwest
2 American Fork UT 275 Southwest
3 Dana Hills CA 310 California
4 Lone Peak UT 320 Southwest
5 Great Oak CA 320 California
6 Christian Brothers NJ 350 Northeast
7 Lehi UT 355 Southwest
8 Lake Zurich IL 365 Midwest
9 Solon OH 365 Midwest
10 Madera South CA 365 California
11 The Woodlands TX 370 South
12 Bozeman MT 375 Northwest
13 West Torrance CA 375 California
14 Lyons IL 375 Midwest
15 Davis Utah UT 380 Southwest
16 Ogden UT 380 Southwest
17 Brentwood TN 390 Southeast
18 Carmel IN 395 Midwest
19 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 395 New York
20 Loyola CA 405 California
21 Broughton NC 410 Southeast
22 Southlake Carroll TX 410 South
23 Cherokee NJ 410 Northeast
24 Crater OR 410 Northwest
25 Mountain Vista CO 420 Southwest
26 Hinsdale Central IL 430 Midwest
27 Claremont CA 435 California
28 Brea Olinda CA 435 California
29 Bellarmine Prep WA 435 Northwest
30 Edina MN 440 Heartland