Tracking Shot

State of the Action:

There are plenty of team looking for redemption at the Federation Championships.  Several teams underperformed on the treacherous hills of Monroe-Woodbury, based on their season best performances.  Look for that to change at  Bowdoin Park, an oddly more moderate and familiar course to many of the teams in attendance.

Saratoga looks to be the favorite once again.  At Monroe-Woodbury, the Blue Streaks took a strong second place, ahead of third by a healthy margin, yet in second by the same.  One of their front 5 girls dropped out, boosting their score, and we've re-entered her for our predictions.  They are one of the top teams in the country, and have made Feds a regular trip each year.

The strongest competition is Shenendehowa.  Second place at Sectionals, their performance at SPAC compares strongly to Saratoga's at States.  While not a fair comparison, it does close the gap created by the return of Shenendehowa's third girl, who had been recovering after a strong McQuaid performance.  How strong is NY?  Shenendehowa is currently rated 4th in NY State, yet beat the NXN-MW Champion team at McQuaid, considered one of the deeper NXN Regions.  Colonie took third at Sectionals, and is projected here as well, but Bowdoin is a very different course than SPAC.

John Jay - Cross River had season best performances at Monroe-Woodbury, an anomaly for the day, sans Manlius.   They are also the only team to have toppled Saratoga at Feds since 2008, so that gives them some "street cred" in the predictions.  North Rockland rounds out the top teams, as their top three will be looking to improve upon their finishes at States, while the back two will also need to move up with the pack.