AAAA preview
08/11/2015 9:28:33 AM
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Great research by the ranker! I think North Hall and St Pius are better than their rankings. But that is the fun of it now. I was surprised to see 6 teams from 8AAAA but I don't know the field that well. Curious to see the move in from Hawaii.
Great research by the ranker! I think North Hall and St Pius are better than their rankings. But that is the fun of it now. I was surprised to see 6 teams from 8AAAA but I don't know the field that well. Curious to see the move in from Hawaii.
08/11/2015 9:52:05 AM
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Who is the Hawaii kid?
Who is the Hawaii kid?
08/11/2015 10:08:18 AM
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A transfer to Whitewater that reportedly has run 15:30.
A transfer to Whitewater that reportedly has run 15:30.
08/11/2015 10:39:01 AM
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I can tell you that 8AAAA is stacked on both sides, boys and girls. This is the deepest region in AAAA. Both Buford and White County boys put all 7 runners in sub 18 at region and sat at home during state. Look at the top returning times individually and teams and you will see girls and boys from 8AAAA at the top of both list. Great to be part of this region, but extremely challenging at the same time.
I can tell you that 8AAAA is stacked on both sides, boys and girls. This is the deepest region in AAAA. Both Buford and White County boys put all 7 runners in sub 18 at region and sat at home during state. Look at the top returning times individually and teams and you will see girls and boys from 8AAAA at the top of both list. Great to be part of this region, but extremely challenging at the same time.
08/11/2015 3:38:46 PM
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AAAA is going to be stacked this year. Sean Parker, Frank Crippen, Frank Pittman, Devin Dixon, Don Harp, Harper Sigler, Parker Nail, George Meyer, Tommy Johnston, Corson Teasley, George Suarez, Thomas Adkins(the transfer from whitewater ), Jacob Ressler, Brennan Silliman, and Knox Pittman are going to be contenders for the top 15. Hearing the stories from the peachtree and Nike camp, these guys should be in the top 15. It's going to be an exciting season.
AAAA is going to be stacked this year. Sean Parker, Frank Crippen, Frank Pittman, Devin Dixon, Don Harp, Harper Sigler, Parker Nail, George Meyer, Tommy Johnston, Corson Teasley, George Suarez, Thomas Adkins(the transfer from whitewater ), Jacob Ressler, Brennan Silliman, and Knox Pittman are going to be contenders for the top 15. Hearing the stories from the peachtree and Nike camp, these guys should be in the top 15. It's going to be an exciting season.
08/11/2015 8:16:27 PM
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[quote=bhs11]A transfer to Whitewater that reportedly has run 15:30.[/quote] @bhs11 which one is he?
bhs11 wrote:
A transfer to Whitewater that reportedly has run 15:30.


@bhs11 which one is he?
08/11/2015 8:57:28 PM
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@trailcat [b]Thomas Adkins([/b]the transfer in from Whitewater )
@trailcat Thomas Adkins(the transfer in from Whitewater )
08/11/2015 10:08:28 PM
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[quote=trailcat]bhs11A transfer to Whitewater that reportedly has run 15:30. @bhs11 which one is he?[/quote] @trailcat The webmaster beat me to the answer.
railcat wrote:
bhs11A transfer to Whitewater that reportedly has run 15:30.

@bhs11 which one is he?


@trailcat The webmaster beat me to the answer.
08/11/2015 11:59:24 PM
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As best I can tell the 15:30 being reported is for a 3 mile course where 14:40 was the winning time. http://hi.milesplit.com/meets/182336/results/323632
As best I can tell the 15:30 being reported is for a 3 mile course where 14:40 was the winning time.

http://hi.milesplit.com/meets/182336/results/323632
08/12/2015 7:27:31 AM
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He ran a 4:11 1500 less than 2 weeks ago at Emory.
He ran a 4:11 1500 less than 2 weeks ago at Emory.
08/12/2015 8:50:31 AM
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[quote=BWolves]I can tell you that 8AAAA is stacked on both sides, boys and girls. This is the deepest region in AAAA. Both Buford and White County boys put all 7 runners in sub 18 at region and sat at home during state. Look at the top returning times individually and teams and you will see girls and boys from 8AAAA at the top of both list. Great to be part of this region, but extremely challenging at the same time.[/quote] @BWolves I agree with that. We are in 8AAAA too! I was just surprised to see 6 teams in the top 10. I watched the boy from White Co. run 16:10 and get left at home. He did make it in the spring in the 3200 with a sub 10:00 though.
BWolves wrote:
I can tell you that 8AAAA is stacked on both sides, boys and girls. This is the deepest region in AAAA. Both Buford and White County boys put all 7 runners in sub 18 at region and sat at home during state. Look at the top returning times individually and teams and you will see girls and boys from 8AAAA at the top of both list. Great to be part of this region, but extremely challenging at the same time.


@BWolves I agree with that. We are in 8AAAA too! I was just surprised to see 6 teams in the top 10. I watched the boy from White Co. run 16:10 and get left at home. He did make it in the spring in the 3200 with a sub 10:00 though.
08/14/2015 9:17:24 AM
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@bhs11 I believe that there are some very good teams in AAAA and that it is the best division "per capita" in the state. If, however, you really think that the sixth place team in AAAA would beat the fifth place team in AAAAAA, then you must have recently spent some time in Washington or Colorado. I think that Marietta, Mill Creek, Brookwood, Peachtree Ridge, Milton, Etowah and Lambert are all capable of finishing in the top two of AAAA.
@bhs11

I believe that there are some very good teams in AAAA and that it is the best division "per capita" in the state. If, however, you really think that the sixth place team in AAAA would beat the fifth place team in AAAAAA, then you must have recently spent some time in Washington or Colorado. I think that Marietta, Mill Creek, Brookwood, Peachtree Ridge, Milton, Etowah and Lambert are all capable of finishing in the top two of AAAA.
08/14/2015 10:01:57 AM
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[quote=dataholic]@bhs11 I believe that there are some very good teams in AAAA and that it is the best division "per capita" in the state. If, however, you really think that the sixth place team in AAAA would beat the fifth place team in AAAAAA, then you must have recently spent some time in Washington or Colorado. I think that Marietta, Mill Creek, Brookwood, Peachtree Ridge, Milton, Etowah and Lambert are all capable of finishing in the top two of AAAA.[/quote] @dataholic I never sais that. Nor do I believe that. You are correct!
dataholic wrote:
@bhs11

I believe that there are some very good teams in AAAA and that it is the best division "per capita" in the state. If, however, you really think that the sixth place team in AAAA would beat the fifth place team in AAAAAA, then you must have recently spent some time in Washington or Colorado. I think that Marietta, Mill Creek, Brookwood, Peachtree Ridge, Milton, Etowah and Lambert are all capable of finishing in the top two of AAAA.


@dataholic I never sais that. Nor do I believe that. You are correct!
08/14/2015 10:17:53 AM
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[quote=dataholic]@bhs11 I believe that there are some very good teams in AAAA and that it is the best division "per capita" in the state. If, however, you really think that the sixth place team in AAAA would beat the fifth place team in AAAAAA, then you must have recently spent some time in Washington or Colorado. I think that Marietta, Mill Creek, Brookwood, Peachtree Ridge, Milton, Etowah and Lambert are all capable of finishing in the top two of AAAA.[/quote] @dataholic I just went back to a thread you started in May and reread it. The Marist coach predicted that the 5th place team in AAAA would be better than the 5th place team in AAAAAA. He then said he wasn't sure if he believed it though.
dataholic wrote:
@bhs11

I believe that there are some very good teams in AAAA and that it is the best division "per capita" in the state. If, however, you really think that the sixth place team in AAAA would beat the fifth place team in AAAAAA, then you must have recently spent some time in Washington or Colorado. I think that Marietta, Mill Creek, Brookwood, Peachtree Ridge, Milton, Etowah and Lambert are all capable of finishing in the top two of AAAA.


@dataholic I just went back to a thread you started in May and reread it. The Marist coach predicted that the 5th place team in AAAA would be better than the 5th place team in AAAAAA. He then said he wasn't sure if he believed it though.
08/14/2015 12:41:04 PM
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@dataholic I think he was referring to 6 8- AAAA teams in the top 10 of the recently released Milesplit AAAA rankings. Then again, I have no real idea but it hurt my head to relate your post to his post. Maybe I need to visit Colorado!
@dataholic I think he was referring to 6 8- AAAA teams in the top 10 of the recently released Milesplit AAAA rankings. Then again, I have no real idea but it hurt my head to relate your post to his post. Maybe I need to visit Colorado!
08/14/2015 1:38:48 PM
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@crazychuck Wouldn't ten of the top 10 AAAA teams be AAAA teams? Have fun in Colorado.
@crazychuck

Wouldn't ten of the top 10 AAAA teams be AAAA teams? Have fun in Colorado.
08/14/2015 1:48:37 PM
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@bhs11 I have reevaluated my predication from May. Here is what I will say now. It may be controversial and will likely never happen again. It will also become locker room fodder for a lot of 6A schools too. 4A's #4 will be better than 6A's #4. 4A's #3 will be better than 6A's #3. 4A's #2 will be better than 6A's #2. 4A's #5 will be worse than 6A's #5. 4A's 10th individual will be slower than 6A's 10th individual. There will be 4 AAAA boys' teams in the top 10 all class after Carrollton and 3 AAAAAA. (I edited this because I wrote 5 AAAA teams accidentally instead of 4). I will go ahead and say this too, I think 4A's #1 team will be better than 6A's #1 as well. (this is barring drastic weather variations of course) With Whitewater, North Oconee and Pius leading the way, 4A is going to be very difficult to podium in for 2015. *this conversation also ignores some of the programs in 5A that show up at Carrollton every year to do big things. They are not forgotten, just not included in this comparison.* I think this will be the only year this has ever happened and it will not happen again. (I haven't looked too closely, but how did the classifications line up last year? I believe Pius was #1 at Carrollton but I am not sure after that).
@bhs11

I have reevaluated my predication from May.

Here is what I will say now. It may be controversial and will likely never happen again. It will also become locker room fodder for a lot of 6A schools too.

4A's #4 will be better than 6A's #4.
4A's #3 will be better than 6A's #3.
4A's #2 will be better than 6A's #2.
4A's #5 will be worse than 6A's #5.
4A's 10th individual will be slower than 6A's 10th individual.

There will be 4 AAAA boys' teams in the top 10 all class after Carrollton and 3 AAAAAA. (I edited this because I wrote 5 AAAA teams accidentally instead of 4).

I will go ahead and say this too, I think 4A's #1 team will be better than 6A's #1 as well.

(this is barring drastic weather variations of course)

With Whitewater, North Oconee and Pius leading the way, 4A is going to be very difficult to podium in for 2015.

*this conversation also ignores some of the programs in 5A that show up at Carrollton every year to do big things. They are not forgotten, just not included in this comparison.*

I think this will be the only year this has ever happened and it will not happen again. (I haven't looked too closely, but how did the classifications line up last year? I believe Pius was #1 at Carrollton but I am not sure after that).
08/14/2015 2:03:19 PM
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Team averages from the 2014 State meet AAAA 1) St. Pius 16:56 2) Marist 17:17 3) North Oconee 17:19 4) Woodward 17:18 AAAAAA 1) Marietta 17:00 2) Brookwood 17:29 3) Mill Creek 17:26 4) Milton 17:23 Top 4 from AAAA will probably be even better this year. I know that team averages are not perfect but it is the only real comparison that we have.
Team averages from the 2014 State meet

AAAA
1) St. Pius 16:56
2) Marist 17:17
3) North Oconee 17:19
4) Woodward 17:18

AAAAAA
1) Marietta 17:00
2) Brookwood 17:29
3) Mill Creek 17:26
4) Milton 17:23

Top 4 from AAAA will probably be even better this year.

I know that team averages are not perfect but it is the only real comparison that we have.
08/14/2015 2:34:49 PM
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I don't see how we can say that Marietta will not be the best all class. St. Pius X loses their top 3 from state and their 6 (gain Frank CG though). North Oconee loses their 1 and 3 from state. Marist loses their 3 and 7, so that shouldn't hurt them too much. Whitewater lost their 3 but gained Hawaii. Marietta lost their 5 and 7 and that was a bad day for their team. With that said, I do fully agree AAAA can compete head to head with AAAAAA on the top end. The top 5 AAAA teams are stacked this year for sure. 1. Marietta 2. Whitewater 3. St. Pius X 4. Marist 5. Milton
I don't see how we can say that Marietta will not be the best all class. St. Pius X loses their top 3 from state and their 6 (gain Frank CG though). North Oconee loses their 1 and 3 from state. Marist loses their 3 and 7, so that shouldn't hurt them too much. Whitewater lost their 3 but gained Hawaii. Marietta lost their 5 and 7 and that was a bad day for their team.

With that said, I do fully agree AAAA can compete head to head with AAAAAA on the top end. The top 5 AAAA teams are stacked this year for sure.

1. Marietta
2. Whitewater
3. St. Pius X
4. Marist
5. Milton
08/14/2015 2:42:14 PM
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Race order impacts relative performances at state. http://ga.milesplit.com/discussion/topics/127721 http://ga.milesplit.com/articles/140703 As I attempted to explain the team-to-team variation, I did find two factors that were statistically significant and did collectively explain about 20% of the variation in performance vs. predicted. The first factor is the order of races. I had been tracking runners in races 1(AAAAA), 3(AAAA), 5(AAA), and 9 (AAAAAA) on the day. Each successive race was about five seconds slower (vs. predicted) than was the previous race. I am guessing that this is largely an effect of rising temperatures, but other factors could also be playing a role. Note in Figure 3 that the AAAAA (1st race) box is considerably higher than the AAAAAA (9th race) box, with the AAAA (3rd race) and AAA (5th race) boxes in between.
Race order impacts relative performances at state.

http://ga.milesplit.com/discussion/topics/127721

http://ga.milesplit.com/articles/140703

As I attempted to explain the team-to-team variation, I did find two factors that were statistically significant and did collectively explain about 20% of the variation in performance vs. predicted. The first factor is the order of races. I had been tracking runners in races 1(AAAAA), 3(AAAA), 5(AAA), and 9 (AAAAAA) on the day. Each successive race was about five seconds slower (vs. predicted) than was the previous race. I am guessing that this is largely an effect of rising temperatures, but other factors could also be playing a role. Note in Figure 3 that the AAAAA (1st race) box is considerably higher than the AAAAAA (9th race) box, with the AAAA (3rd race) and AAA (5th race) boxes in between.

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