Article Comment: Previewing The Best Federation Championship of the Past Decade
11/13/2014 2:43:25 PM
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So you think that there will be roughly ten team runners between Shen's #1 and Saratoga's #1? Then you think there will be another 10 team runners between Shen's #2 and Saratoga's #2? If that is the case then I think that will be a hard gap upfront for Saratoga to overcome but if Saratoga runs anywhere near their NYSPHSAA level then I doubt that will be the case.
So you think that there will be roughly ten team runners between Shen's #1 and Saratoga's #1? Then you think there will be another 10 team runners between Shen's #2 and Saratoga's #2? If that is the case then I think that will be a hard gap upfront for Saratoga to overcome but if Saratoga runs anywhere near their NYSPHSAA level then I doubt that will be the case.
11/13/2014 5:15:43 PM
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I think a solid argument can be made for both teams. Our team score projections are based on the assumption that each individual will have an "on" day. As coaches, we all know that very rarely happens, which is what makes the sport exciting. Projections are a nice tool for the spectator, and a motivational tool for coaches. But on race day, they mean next to nothing in determining the end result, as it should be.
I think a solid argument can be made for both teams. Our team score projections are based on the assumption that each individual will have an "on" day. As coaches, we all know that very rarely happens, which is what makes the sport exciting. Projections are a nice tool for the spectator, and a motivational tool for coaches. But on race day, they mean next to nothing in determining the end result, as it should be.
11/13/2014 6:00:49 PM
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Oh I see the confusion. The average time and compression numbers mean nothing. They are simply a by-product of the team scoring formatting.
Oh I see the confusion. The average time and compression numbers mean nothing. They are simply a by-product of the team scoring formatting.
11/13/2014 6:46:42 PM
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I wasn't referring to, or even looking at, the average time or compression numbers.
I wasn't referring to, or even looking at, the average time or compression numbers.
11/13/2014 9:47:07 PM
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Saratoga had the closest compression at States, a little better than FM's, but the top runner was 13th in team place points in the A race, and the point here is that in a different field at Feds that Shen is projected to have their two top runners far ahead of Saratoga. That could hurt, as Suffern came within 10 points of Saratoga at States with a far lower TR and a hugely bigger skew. It all depends on how the teams sort out. Guilderland is projected 3rd here in the team score not 5th, which is approximately where they rank based on speed ratings adjusted for compression.
Saratoga had the closest compression at States, a little better than FM's, but the top runner was 13th in team place points in the A race, and the point here is that in a different field at Feds that Shen is projected to have their two top runners far ahead of Saratoga. That could hurt, as Suffern came within 10 points of Saratoga at States with a far lower TR and a hugely bigger skew. It all depends on how the teams sort out. Guilderland is projected 3rd here in the team score not 5th, which is approximately where they rank based on speed ratings adjusted for compression.
11/13/2014 11:59:32 PM
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Yes, I completely understand that Mr. Brazeil is implying that Danielle Jordan and Julia Zachgo are both likely to be far ahead of Peyton Engborg or Spencer Hayes or whoever is Saratoga's top finisher at Federations. I'm guess I'm just not as convinced of that. In the four times the girls have competed head to head Engborg has finished ahead of Zachgo three times and finished three seconds behind her once. Ultimately, the girls will decide the race on the course but I'm not sure given the history it would be a huge shock if Engborg finished on top at Feds as she did at Suburban Council and in the NYSPHSAA meets. Beyond that, I think that as long as Saratoga's 3-4-5 runners run well, the larger federations field will likely favor them. If you look at how they fared against both Shenendehowa in the merge at their Section 2 meet and how they matched up with Suffern in the NYSPHSAA merge versus the Class A race I think that supports that point. Best of luck to both teams. Although, at least based on what they have both shown thus far this season, I think Saratoga is a little stronger I can believe that they are both legitimate top 10 US teams at this point and it would be great to see both of them competing at NXN along with FM.
Yes, I completely understand that Mr. Brazeil is implying that Danielle Jordan and Julia Zachgo are both likely to be far ahead of Peyton Engborg or Spencer Hayes or whoever is Saratoga's top finisher at Federations. I'm guess I'm just not as convinced of that. In the four times the girls have competed head to head Engborg has finished ahead of Zachgo three times and finished three seconds behind her once. Ultimately, the girls will decide the race on the course but I'm not sure given the history it would be a huge shock if Engborg finished on top at Feds as she did at Suburban Council and in the NYSPHSAA meets.

Beyond that, I think that as long as Saratoga's 3-4-5 runners run well, the larger federations field will likely favor them. If you look at how they fared against both Shenendehowa in the merge at their Section 2 meet and how they matched up with Suffern in the NYSPHSAA merge versus the Class A race I think that supports that point.

Best of luck to both teams. Although, at least based on what they have both shown thus far this season, I think Saratoga is a little stronger I can believe that they are both legitimate top 10 US teams at this point and it would be great to see both of them competing at NXN along with FM.
11/14/2014 6:08:32 AM
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Out of my own curiosity, I went back and checked the numbers. Slots 14-28 equal about 6 speed rating spots, which equates to about 15 seconds. With that kind of interchangeability, the finishing order can very well be almost impossible to predict. As for Shen and Saratoga, I took from where I assumed each team was peaking, with the assumption they'd be peaking again for Feds. Zhago was ahead at Sectionals, so the assumption would be similar here. But yes, at States, Saratoga did run more consistently to what they had at SPAC. All I can say is that it will be a very good race, and best of luck to both teams.
Out of my own curiosity, I went back and checked the numbers. Slots 14-28 equal about 6 speed rating spots, which equates to about 15 seconds. With that kind of interchangeability, the finishing order can very well be almost impossible to predict. As for Shen and Saratoga, I took from where I assumed each team was peaking, with the assumption they'd be peaking again for Feds. Zhago was ahead at Sectionals, so the assumption would be similar here. But yes, at States, Saratoga did run more consistently to what they had at SPAC. All I can say is that it will be a very good race, and best of luck to both teams.

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