MileSplit NY - It's national season for the folks of the Northeast. Perspectives have changed from trying to beat out the best of the state, to competing with the best of the best.
Teams and athletes have two options for those who wish to extend their season. To oversimplify, Nike Cross Regionals are for teams looking to continue, and Foot Locker Regional is for the individual. There is some slight variation in these perspectives, but more on that later.
Because of scheduling, it is either one or the other. Both events have some of NY's top talent, and our full Foot Locker preview will be out on Friday.
Also of note, teams are not allowed to use their school names, so club names are required. Below are some highlights.
| Fly Out Die Out XC Club | Dead Poets Society XC Club (Walt Whitman) |
| Amherst Polar Cows | Excel-erate North |
| Got The Runs TC | Monkey Fighting Pirates TC |
| MOXC | Wild Kitten AC |
Nike Cross Regionals - New York
*Note: Team predictions are from a Fed merge, which scored speed ratings from the NYSPHSAA, AIS, PSAL, and CHSAA meet. They do not include changes from the Federation meet, positive or negative.
Boys Teams
To put it simply, this race is stacked. Every team worth talking about is here. What looks to be essentially what a Federation meet should be, the scoring gets swayed by the influx of competing teams. And just as how Arlington proved at that same Federation meet, not all courses are created equal. Some teams are better suited to the brutal hills of Bowdoin.
That said, I still believe it is a two horse race (a pun for those that know the origins of Tully's speed ratings 
) Top teams in both the States Merge, and our own Federation merge, it looks to be a battle with Fayetteville-Manlius and Saratoga. Both teams have the depth of speed to score small numbers in the big field. The question comes down to, who takes the top spot? Saratoga has already had a run on the course last weekend, but a quick glance at the boys overall Bowdoin leaderboard will show that that has never stopped the Stotans before.
Originally, I had thought that a smaller field would decrease the spread between some of the top teams, but it would seem the field has gotten even deeper. As of right now, I see no clear winner amongst the two. It simply comes down to who has the better day, and who might be saving some for the next weekend.
That leaves the #3 spot, and a potential At-Large bid (awarded to 4 teams from all regionals, appointed by a committee.) This is where the race gets interesting. The number #3 at States, Northport, had a slight off week last weekend, partly because they did not run one of their top 5. In their wake, Arlington capitalized on a course they know well to run very quickly, to take 2nd at Federations. Right in the mix is St. Anthony's, who finished 4th at Federations, and in our Federation merge. Their consistency has aided their merits for the nod.
The problem with the At-Large bid for NY Boys lies with something that resides a little bit further down the page. The three teams behind CBA in NXN North East are all very strong, and very well may take two Auto-spots. Whoever takes 3rd in New York must have a very good showing, and be close enough to the top two to get the consideration. I think several teams can do it, and would do well out west. Plus, race well enough, and they may even get an automatic spot.
Boys 5000 Meter Run Team Scores
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Team Pts 1 2 3 4 5 (6) (7)
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1 Saratoga Springs 100 6 10 25 29 30 91 131
Total Time: 2:58 Average: 35.60 1-5 Split: 37
2 Fayetteville-Manlius 109 1 3 32 35 38 135 159
Total Time: 3:01 Average: 36.20 1-5 Split: 1:02
3 Northport 184 11 14 20 47 92 133 412
Total Time: 5:15 Average: 1:03.00 1-5 Split: 2:09
4 St. Anthonys 212 28 36 44 49 55 61 64
Total Time: 5:51 Average: 1:10.20 1-5 Split: 43
5 Warwick Valley 301 39 48 59 77 78 111 211
Total Time: 8:22 Average: 1:40.40 1-5 Split: 1:08
6 Chaminade 316 13 18 74 84 127 179 212
Total Time: 8:53 Average: 1:46.60 1-5 Split: 3:03
7 Notre Dame-Bishop Gibbons 323 15 42 45 70 151 405 434
Total Time: 8:49 Average: 1:45.80 1-5 Split: 3:37
8 Collegiate School 335 19 37 50 110 119 130 479
Total Time: 9:27 Average: 1:53.40 1-5 Split: 2:42
9 Arlington 354 4 24 103 107 116 168 229
Total Time: 10:01 Average: 2:00.20 1-5 Split: 3:05
10 East Aurora 419 54 57 79 101 128 231 299
Total Time: 11:35 Average: 2:19.00 1-5 Split: 2:01
Boys Individuals
It would seem that since its inception, NXN-NY has taken a lot of the prestige of being a New York event. With that in mind, almost all of NY's top boys have opted to run Nike. What was once a much easier way to qualify for a National event, has now become as competitive as the alternative. In my opinion, I believe that New York should spread themselves out, simply because I enjoy seeing New Yorkers perform very well at both events : ).
That said, this field is tough to make the five first spots, excluding team qualifiers. Frontrunner for the Individual title, Nick Ryan of FM, may qualify with his other top 5 teammate, Bryce Millar. With them removed, below are my top five, with 5 more who could pop a big performance.
| Top Contenders | Top Challengers |
| 1. Eric Holt - Carmel | 6. Benito Muniz - Carmel |
| 2. Mickey Burke - Rush Henrietta | 7. Sibby Hanson - Arlington |
| 3. TJ Hornberger - Lake Shore | 8. Alec Peinkofer - Baldwinsville |
| 4. Jeffrey Antolos - Notre Dame-Batavia | 9. Brian Cook - Pearl River |
| 5. Tom Slattery - Chaminade | 10. Sean Kelly - Chaminade |
Girls Teams
This race should sound familiar, with a little reversal. Both Fayetteville-Manlius and Saratoga are the odds on favorites to qualify. Saratoga ran very well at Federations to increase a lead that eluded them in the States merge.
But here is the interesting thing about the situation. Although both teams are qualifying threats in both genders, their race strategies are reversed by gender. For the boys, FM had two athletes way up front, but Saratoga had the strong compression that gave them an edge. For the girls, it is exactly the opposite. Saratoga has their front runner in the form of Taylor Driscoll, followed by their strong underclassman Oliva Morrow. Sound familiar?
However, it is Fayetteville-Manlius depth of speed and tight compression that lets them score the low points, so much so that in the states merge that saw teams' points almost double, the Hornets added only 5. Both teams need to run well, but find themselves as the top teams again.
The third spot, and possible At-Large position? Enter Academy of the Holy Names. They had beaten Saratoga in the varsity merge at States, but had lost to them at Federations. One runner had an off day, and that's all it takes. That could change in their favor at the regionals, and it is very possible they could grab the auto-qualifier bid. However, we have to go with the most recent results. For reference, if the Holy Names girls do make it to Oregon, preliminary numbers have them in the top 5 teams (That should give you an idea where the other two lie :) )
East Aurora should also be mentioned, as they look very good to grab fourth place in a sub 150 score as well, which could bring even more good news to New York. They have been running very well, and gives proof to running above Classification.
Girls 5000 Meter Run Team Scores
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Team Pts 1 2 3 4 5 (6) (7)
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1 Fayetteville-Manlius 35 4 5 6 9 11 20 31
Total Time: 1:06 Average: 13.20 1-5 Split: 13
2 Academy Of Holy Names 110 13 14 21 29 33 57 167
Total Time: 3:26 Average: 41.20 1-5 Split: 43
3 Saratoga Springs 111 3 18 19 30 41 76 78
Total Time: 3:18 Average: 39.60 1-5 Split: 1:13
4 East Aurora 155 16 22 36 39 42 118 135
Total Time: 4:52 Average: 58.40 1-5 Split: 50
5 Rush-Henrietta 287 7 52 53 55 120 155 351
Total Time: 8:33 Average: 1:42.60 1-5 Split: 3:22
6 Nanuet 379 8 34 79 128 130 187 274
Total Time: 11:38 Average: 2:19.60 1-5 Split: 3:38
7 Garden City 380 17 40 94 113 116 338 -
Total Time: 11:35 Average: 2:19.00 1-5 Split: 3:02
8 Warwick Valley 390 1 46 68 133 142 180 234
Total Time: 11:43 Average: 2:20.60 1-5 Split: 4:11
9 Canton 391 54 56 60 63 158 171 341
Total Time: 11:41 Average: 2:20.20 1-5 Split: 3:11
10 North Shore 392 28 72 81 104 107 112 139
Total Time: 11:58 Average: 2:23.60 1-5 Split: 2:22
Girls Individuals
This becomes a little more difficult to predict than for the boys. Two big names, Marissa Saenger and Talia Guevera, are double booked for both National events, and will most likely decided which event to attend based on which is easier to qualify. That said, Foot Locker has taken three other qualifying threats away from NXN.
That said, it doesn't make making the team any easier. Leading that pack is Mary Cain, who now runs unnattached. For any questioning her race fitness, look no further than her #6 All-time VCP performance last Sunday, where she went 17:26, a mark speed rated over 160.
Other top contenders can be found below, with 5 more potentials as well.
| Top Contenders | Top Challengers |
| 1. Mary Cain - Unnattached | 6. Kennedy Jensen - Canandaigua |
| 2. Bella Burda - Arlington | 7. Siobhan Quinn - Rush Henrietta |
| 3. **Marissa Saenger - Clarence | 8. Valerie Palermo - Webster Schroeder |
| 4. Gianna Frontera - Newburgh | 9. Maryanna Lansing - Shaker |
| 5. Megan Young - Nanuet | 10. Madeline Montague - Greenwich |
Nike Cross Regionals - Northeast
*Note: My knowledge of Individuals for the Northeast is limited to the exceptional. With Cheserek choosing Foot Locker, and Ben Malone shutting down for the season, I am leaving my previews for the team title only
Boys Team Race
A race so important, it looks to be the key highlight of the day. At the top, you have CBA, the reigning champion and heavy favorite. Their team season looks much like Edward Cheserek's did last year: They have set a team average course record at nearly every venue they have run. They look to score what may be the lowest score at a regional this year.
Behind them, the predictions get muddier. You have fellow Jerseyite Don Bosco Prep, which has had a stellar season in their own right, led by Kyle Levermore. However, it seems to be a two state race, as Pennsylvania has two very quality teams of its' own, in Cardinal O'Hara and West Chester Henderson.
How quality? The teams split dead even at the state meet, going to 6th man decision, which was also very close as well. The pair have been training together ever since, in an effort to provide a joint force against New Jersey at regionals. Below are my own projections based on state meet and group meet ratings, but the numbers are so close, they can swing any which way, to anyones favor.
That said, you would be hard pressed to find a #3 and #4 deserving of at least a consideration for the At-Large spots. Depending how close they keep the race to the top, it wouldn't be unheard of for both to go.
Varsity Boys 5000 Meter Run Team Scores
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Girls Team Race
There are a couple of quality teams in the North East for the girls, and a race that may be the only one of the day without a clear winner.
That said, Pennsbury looks very good to make their first-ever trip west. They ran very strongly at the PA state meet, and will ride on a strong performance from Sara Sargent. Running with Pennsbury is Barrington out of Rhode Island, and Voorhees out of NJ. Both have some solid compression.
Another team that may factor in, although not represented well in the projection, is Vermont's Champlain Valley. They placed fourth in the Manhattan Easterns' race with Taylor Spillane leading, and could pull a very impressive performance to disrupt the order.
Varsity Girls 5000 Meter Run Team Scores
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