Nike Cross Nationals - NY Qualifier Meet Predictions

NE Regional Preview can be found here.

All Speed Ratings are courtesy of Bill Meylan from Tully Runners located at

Stats compiled by Kyle Brazeil of MileSplit NY


The push for Nike Cross Nationals concludes in the Northeast this Saturday, as both NXN-NY and NXN-NE will be held at Bowdoin Park in Wappingers Falls NY.  Teams will be looking to finish in the top 2 in the Championship race to gain an automatic bid to Nike Cross Nationals in Portland, Oregon the following weekend.  In addition, the top 5 individuals not on one of those qualifying teams will also be able to compete at NXN.  Fear not if your favorite team does not finish in the top 2, as Nike chooses 4 At-Large teams from all regional qualifiers to compete, and the depth of talent in New York has traditionally seen at least one of those bids every year going all the way back to 2006.  Listed below are our predictions for who will qualify and how.



Top 25 Individuals


Name School Speed Rating
Nick Ryan Fayetteville Manlius 196
Dan Galford Monsignor Farrell 187
Thomas Awad Chaminade 186
Mike Libruk Shaker 186
Sam Anderson South Lewis 185
Konrad Surkont Stuyvesant 185
Matt Deyo Fayetteville-Manlius 185
Mike Turi John Jay - East Fishkill 184
Eddie Merenda Arlington 183
Ryan Manahan Marcellus 183
Brendan Wortner Dobbs Ferry 182
Sabastion Hanson Arlington 182
Mickey Burke Rush Henrietta-Sperry 182
Cooper Roach Honeoye Falls-Lima 182
Paddy Grandinalli Warwick Valley 182
Nate Kozyra Rush Henrietta-Sperry 181
Christian Delago Shaker 181
Mike Anvelt Pittsford Sutherland 181
Travis Jordan Gates Chili 181
Kris Moran North Babylon 181
Ryan Phillips Regis 180
Jon Vallercosa Shaker 180
Eric Holt Carmel 180
Austin Lane Greenwich 180
Andrew Sweeney Rush Henrietta-Sperry 179


Top 5 Teams

Team NXN Nickname Team Avg.
Fayetteville-Manlius Manlius XC 181.4
Shaker Shaker T+F Club 177
Rush Henrietta-Sperry Comets XC 175.6
Arlington Arlington TC 174
Monsignor Farrell Fidelis NYC 171.4



With FM a very good chance for taking the overall title, the 2nd spot is not guaranteed to anyone.  Early predictions show Shaker grabbing the second auto-qualifier, but a bad race for one athlete can skew these results in any direction.  Notable absentee is last week's Bowdoin winner, Brendan Smith.  He told MileSplit he intended to run NXN this week, but he is currently listed on the Foot Locker start list.  In his absence, it looks to be a replay of Feds as Thomas Awad and Dan Galford battle for that first individual slot.




Top 15 (without US #1, #2, #3)

Name Team Speed Rating
Mary Cain Bronxville 153
Kelsey Margey Friends Academy 142
Rachel Paul Sachem East 140
Gianna Frontera Newburgh Free Academy 139
Meghan McCormick Canandaigua 136
Holly Cavalluzzo Valley Central 134
Ariana Bottalico Brewster 131
Alicia Clark Granville 131
Vicky Houser Greenwich 131
Kennedy Jensen Canandaigua 130
Liz Valento Pavillion 128
Kate Zendell Suffern 127
Leah Triller Academy of the Holy Names 127
Stephanie Gerland Garden City 127
Hannah Cole Honeoye Falls Lima 126
Victoria Campanian South Lewis 126


Top 5 Teams

Team NXN Nickname Team Avg.
Fayetteville-Manlius Manlius XC 141.2
North Shore North Shore Running Club 133.2
Saratoga Springs Kinetic RC 129.8
Canandaigua Canandaigua RC 119.8
Greenwich Greenwich Witches 116.4
Burnt Hills-Balston Lake Burnt Hills TC 116



With an At-Large qualification almost guaranteed to at least the 3rd place in the Girls' race, I decided to do their ratings separately.  In their wake, we find Bronxville's Mary Cain looking to improve her already impressive 17:40 from last week.  This week, Cain will have FM's Jillian Fanning to run with, so a quick pace is expected.  Behind Cain, we find Kelsey Margey and Rachel Paul battling for the second individual bid, as well as for rights to being named" Long Island's Fastest."  On the teams side, an impressive North Shore is looking well to topple a strong Saratoga Springs.  Saratoga had a slower race at States, but ran well at Bowdoin last week, so it is anybody's race.  US #1 Fayetteville-Manlius looks impressive as ever, despite losing two of their top girls to injury.


Fayetteville-Manlius Top 5

Name Speed Rating
Jillian Fanning 155
Katie Sischo 141
Annika Avery 140
Hanna Smith 137
Jenna Farrell / Alana Pearl 133

North Shore Top 5

Name Speed Rating
Samantha Nadel 150
Brianna Nerud 148
Jessica Donohue 133
Elizabeth Caldwell 130
Alexandra Osman 105

Saratoga Springs Top 5

Name Speed Rating
Taylor Driscoll 136
Keelin Hollowood 135
Estela Smith 135
Olivia Morrow 124
Katie Treichel 119