All this week, MileSplit NY will be running previews for one of the biggest meets in the city, outside the marathon. All opinions presented below are those of Perry King, creator of http://section1-nys-running.com . Stay tuned for more pre-meet coverage as well as extensive on-site coverage of The Manhattan College Invitational on Sunday, October 9th.
Sunday, October 9, 2011. Van Cortlandt Park -- the Bronx. Starting Times: 12:51 - 2:03
Overview
Besides the championship Eastern States race, the Manhattan Invite will also include 7 other boys varsity races identified with letters from A to G, and starting every 12 minutes. About 193 teams will be running in the varsity letter races. The statistics included below are largely based on the NY and NJ teams, for whom data is fairly easy to come by. Data for teams outside of NY and NJ is tougher to find because many of their states' XC sites are restrictive, and some of the teams have not yet run. TR scores for some of the strong RI schools, for instance, are taken from 2010 data.
The boys' letter races appear to be far less evenly distributed than the girls' races. For a few races, it is very hard to find more than a couple teams that are out front. The top 4 teams overall based on either 2011 or 2010 stats appear to be La Salle (RI), Chariho (RI), Baldwinsville, and Warwick Valley, but there are a lot of teams chasing very close behind. The top runner, based on his last year's stats and huge Eastern States' stretch run to 6th place, is La Salle-RI's Zachary Fraielli. Other top guys could include Baldwinsville's Alec Peinkofer, Warwick Valley's Paddy Grandinali, and Brewster's Justin Maguire, but again with many other runners ready to grab the spotlight. None of last year's letter race winners are back since as usual almost all were seniors, the exception being Monsignor Farrell's Dan Galford, who's in Eastern States. Catch all the great action starting at 12:51 on the dot.
Numbers in parentheses following teams and runners are the Tully Runner speed ratings, estimated as best as able.
Race A
Time: 12:51
Teams at the Top: Warwick Valley (163.6), Morris Hills-NJ (162.2), Collegiate (162.2), Tappan Zee (156.6), Suffern (156.4), John Jay-East Fishkill (155.8)
Runners with Hops: Paddy Grandinali - WV (180), Mike Turi - JJ-EF (179), Kris Moran - North Babylon (179), Will McDuffie - Coll (175), Aaron Peterson - WV (174), Joe Dinan - TZ (173), Kevin French - JJ-EF (171), Grant Parrelli - WV (170), Troy Kelly - Queensbury (168), Ryan Depinto - Syosset (168), Evan Ward - Suf (168), Travis Ellis - MH (167), Nicholas Partisan - MH (165), Charkie Ropes - Our Lady of Lourdes (165), Nathan Kotch - TZ (165), Liam Trotzuk - Col (163), Robert Biro - MH (162), Alex Mirra - Tully (162), Matthew Weintraub - MH (161), Martin Leff - West Genesee (161)
Overview: Race A is one of the more loaded races and appears to have three high-ranked teams battling at close range at the top. NYS-A #10 Warwick Valley has a strong top three but needs more help at the back to beat out NJ #9 Morris Hills and NYS-C #1 Collegiate for the team honors. Section 1 teams Tappan Zee, Suffern, and John Jay - East Fishkill should engage in the usual war. The fight for the top honors should be very close, with Warwick's Grandinelli, John Jay - EF's Turi, and North Babylon's Moran all running at around the 180 TR level.
Race B
Time: 1:03
Teams at the Top: La Salle-RI (166.2), Baldwinsville (164.8), Chariho-RI (164.4), North Hunterdon-NJ (160.8), Bronxville (155.8)
Runners with Hops: Zachary Fraielli - LaS (187), Alec Peinkofer - Bald (181), Ryan Walsh - LaS (174), Dayton Flannery - Brx (174), Will Burton - East Syracuse-Minoa (172), Mike Marsella - Char (171), Jaimin Vekaria - NH (169), Andy Fleming - Bald (167), John Flannery - Brx (167), Dan Kilcoyne - Char (167), Jake Kilcoyne - Char (165), Josh Perez - Bald (163), David Folsom - NH (163), David Mugavero - NH (163), John Marsella - Char (162), Nick Konotopskyj - Bald (161), John Vetromile - Brx (160), Nick Seibert - NH (160)
Overview: This is another packed race, with Section 3's NYS-A #20 Baldwinsville going up against two RI powers, a top-20 NJ team, plus the small-fry NYS-C #5 team in a wide-ranging battle of styles. Since neither of the RI schools La Salle or Chariho appear to have run full squads yet, it's hard to evaluate them, though they excelled at Manhattan last year with La Salle taking 12th in Eastern States and Chariho getting 2nd in race G. La Salle's Fraielli and Baldwinsville's Peinkofer appear to be the favorites for the individual honors.
Race C
Time: 1:15
Teams at the Top: La Sallle-PA (161.6), Pawling (155.2)
Runners with Hops: Jordan Pantalone - Notre Dame-Bishop Gibbons (176), Stephen Lewandowski - Mountain Lakes-NJ (175), Tom Coyle LaS (174), Matt Lange - ND-BG (169), Matt Jorgensen - Pawl (168), Andrew Stone - LaS (164), Matthew Greco - LaS (163), Matthew Luppino - Westfield (163), Jason Lange - ND-BG (161), Colin Souter - Pawl (161)
Overview: This race likely has a few more strong out-of-state teams in it, but I just couldn't find them. La Salle is coming off a big win as the top team at the major Paul Short race in PA, so they should be a favorite over NYS-C #4 Pawling. ND-BG's Pantalone, Mountain Lake's Lewandowski, and La Salle's Tom Coyle all seem to be running around the same level.
Race D
Time: 1:27
Teams at the Top: Brewster (159.2), St. Joseph's-PA (156.8), Walt Whitman (154.0)
Runners with Hops: Justin Maguire - Brew (180), Brendan Smith - Christian Brother Academy-NY (176), Zach Cammer - WW (175), Sean Grady - East Meadow (174), Michael Damato - WW (173), Charlie Carr - Brew (168), Paul Gennaro - SJ (165), Patrick Cummings - WW (164), Adam McIe - Brew (164), Ryan Scapelli - Sachem East (163), Philo Germano - East Meadow (162), Zachary Toner - Calhoun (161), Niall Williams - Niskayuna (161), Colin Sawyer - SJ (160), Owen Glatts - SJ (160)
Overview: NYS-B #7 Brewster is coming off two comfortable wins and appears to have the edge over St. Joseph's Prep and NYS-A #11 Walt Whitman. Brewster's Justin Maguire also seems to be the top runner in the race, but Class C school CBA's Brendan Smith won the V-V-S #3 race a few weeks ago and should challenge at the top.
Race E
Time: 1:39
Teams at the Top: Lowell-MA (162.6), Pearl River (162.0), Somers (160.4), Bronx HS of Science (160.0), Cicero-North Syracuse (158.6), Shoreham-Wading River (157.8)
Runners with Hops: John Lee - SWR (177), Peter Coppinger - Low (173), Adam Yohanan - BHSS (173), Pier Berkmans - BHSS (171), Anthony Lupia - CNS (171), Justin Zorn - Som (171), Chris Steenkamer - St. Mark's-DE (171), Kieran Brennan - PR (168), David Sammel - Som (167), Brian Edsall - PR (167), Alexis Andujar - Low (166), Nathan McCarthy - Low (166), Will Ronchetti - Brighton (165), Tyler Keys - SWR (165), Neil Gill - CNS (163), Thomas Meehan - Eastport-South Manor (163), James Shea - Yorktown (162), Joe Clinton - PR (162), Stephen McNiff - PR (161), Andrew Rock - BHHS (161)
Overview: Race E is loaded and has the intriguing matchup of three teams that won 2010 Manhattan races, Lowell for Race F, Pearl River for Race G, and Somers for Race C. They are back with strong squads that are pretty evenly matched, and only one squad can repeat. So the question is who? The race also serves as a testing ground for two NYS Section 1-B rivals, Pearl River who is ranked #12 in NYS-B and Somers who is ranked #10. NYS-A #13 Cicero-North Syracuse, Bronx Science, and NYS-B #8 Shoreham-Wading River also provide more power and more great matchups. Shoreham-Wading River's John Lee leads the pack, but it's a big one.
Race F
Time: 1:51
Teams at the Top: St. John the Baptist (160.4)
Runners with Hops: Brendan Wortner - Dobbs Ferry (177), Eric Holt - Carmel (173), Derek Palafax - Bellport (170), Jack Stevenson - Stuyvesant (169), Sean Ferguson - SJB (167), Mitchell Kun - Sheepshead Bay (167), Nick Hridt - Miller Place (166), Jon Holmes - Colonie (163), Jimmy Hamilton - SJB (162), Mark Schramm - Stuy (161), Chris Cardon - White Plains (160)
Overview: Perhaps more searching could have found some dynamo teams other than NYS-A #12 St. John the Baptist, but this race seems to be theirs to win. Dobbs Ferry's Brendan Wortner is coming off a win over the crowds at the Six Flags Wild Safari race, and he should battle Carmel's Eric Holt for individual honors.
Race G
Time: 2:03
Teams at the Top: Washingtonville (158.0), Smithtown (153.8), Bayport-Blue Point (152.6)
Runners with Hops: Adam Lafemina - BBP (170), Robert Calania - Smith (167), Connor Quinn - Wash (165), Luka Vasadi - Wash (164), Kunal Shah - Lakeland-Pana (161), Jeremy White - Wash (160)
Overview: Appears to be one of the less strong groupings, with NYS-A #19 Washingtonville, NYS-B #20 Bayport-Blue Point, and Smithtown leading the field. The individual title is up for grabs.
