CIAC Open Preview: Running More Numbers from Divisionals

Boys Open Championship Scorecard

Data for the Open qualifiers is listed below. Note that very large 1-5 splits usually means that a team's places at the back will be accumulating a larger amount of points behind the big pack of finishers. Here, for instance, Hall has a lesser speed rating than Xavier but may do better with these numbers because of the tiny 0:33 split in comparison to Xavier's larger 1:04 split. Griswold won Class SS principally because its pack compression was much better than Suffield's. Note though that the makeup in the field for a race can vary greatly with big gaps in finishers here and there, and Guilford lost the tie-breaker for 2nd place in Class MM to EO Smith even with a better average time/speed ratings and compression. Also, Class SS runner-up Suffield is projected to be better than SS champ Griswold in the Open field because a loose compression is actually better for the teams at the back of the field.

The time averages from Class Divisionals are hugely better than last year's for this year's teams, but that is simply a result of the 2021 races being run in a muck, while this year the conditions were beautiful. Last year Ridgefield averaged 17:23 while finishing 2nd in the LL race and then went on to claim the Open title with a 16:31 average and the Tigers' lead runner and this year's favorite Steven Hergenrother improved his time by more than a minute between the two races. Things can happen very differently at the Open.

Team	Class	Avg. Time	1-5 Split	Estimated Speed Rating (1-5)
Hall	LL	16.32.2	0:39	171.2 (13)
Xavier	L	16:38.0	1.04	169.2 (21)
Danbury	LL	16:40.0	0:34	168.8 (11)
Staples	LL	16:49.8	1:23	165.2 (28)
New Milford	L	17:02.4	2:04	161.6 (41)
Ridgefield	LL	17:03.8	2:13	160.6 (44)
Fairfield Warde	LL	17:19.0	2:08	155.6 (43)
Trumbull	LL	17:22.0	2:18	154.6 (46)
East Lyme	MM	17:24.2	1:16	154.2 (25)
Immaculate	S	17:28.8	1:10	153.0 (23)
Glastonbury	LL	17:31.2	2:01	151.6 (40)
Hale-Ray	S	17:35.8	1:37	150.0 (32)
Guilford	MM	17:37.0	1:37	149.8 (32)
Greenwich	LL	17:41.4	2:03	148.2 (41)
Norwich Free Academy	LL	17:41.8	0:41	148.0 (14)
EO Smith	MM	17:43.6	1:45	147.6 (35)
Suffield	SS	17:43.8	2:34	147.6 (51)
Daniel Hand	MM	17:49.8	1:42	145.4 (34)
Joel Barlow	MM	17:50.2	2:34	146.2 (51)
Griswold	SS	17:57.0	1:11	143.4 (34)

Boys Individual Top 12 from Class Divisionals