2018 CHSAA Championship Preview

Virtual Meet: Not meant to be a prediction, just another look (some CHSAA teams missing)

CHSAA - Click Here

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CHSAA Girls


Top 10 Teams 

PositionTeamTR - (Compression)Top Runners

1

Sacred Heart

104.0 (34)

M. Maier, Thieke, Moloney, Naudus, Healy, Rosso, Kavanagh

2

Notre Dame

102.6 (45)

Dinneen, Brown, Comerford, Barnes, Franreb, Garcia

3

St. John the Baptist

97.6 (15)

Marcello, McCormack, Murray, Spezia, Isnardi,Haberfield, Schleier

4

Kellenberg

96.4 (22)

Lewin, Lausev, Richardson, Lay, Minns, McLoughlin, Diquez

5

St. Anthony's

76.8 (32)

Parker, Maddalena, Schwasnick, Dorrian, Desjardin, Furman

6

St. Joseph by the Sea

73.6 (38)

George, Schaaf, Guglielmo, Maj, Anderson, Lafferty

7

Mary Louis

51.8 (37)

Bermudez, Maloney, McPartland, Tzimorotas, Lunny

8

St. Francis Prep

49.2 (58)

Cinquemani, Oliveri, Lagudas, Barnave, Calisi

9

Archbishop Molloy

35.4 (43)

Fernandez, McDade, DeSantis, Gilroy, Karmazinas

10

St. Joseph's - Brooklyn

30.4 (-)

McDonald, Garnett, Connaught, Brown-Thomas, Soumaro

11

St. Joseph Hill

29.2 (-)

Shashaty, Giambrone, Tristano, Nicolo, Sonitis

12

Bishop Loughlin

20.2 (-)

Palmer, White Patterson, Pantoon-Whitehead, Moran


Summary: The girls' CHSAA competition has never been closer or as deep as this year at least in recent times, and Notre Dame's four-year reign as the champs is under severe attack. The numbers mainly all seem to show that Sacred Heart should capture its first championship in 13 years and only the second ever, yet there are some puzzling elements to these numbers.

Sacred Heart has the best speed ratings, a better compression factor than Notre Dame, and the Spartans have such deep ranks that its JV team would be the 5th best unit among the CHSAA varsity teams. And yet while Notre Dame breezed to a win in the less competitive NY-BQ CHSAA sectional, Sacred Heart needed a tie-breaker to win the NSCHSAA sectional over Kellenberg, with St. John the Baptist just 5 points back. So what gives?

Although the numbers never really lie, they do show some strange things occasionally. If the top 5 Notre Dame's runners at NY-BQ CHSAA are inserted into the NSCHSAA race, Sacred Heart wins the race by a point, with the score Sacred Heart 54, Notre Dame 55, Kellenberg 56, St.John the Baptist 61. So there are four teams clumped together in a virtual tie, yet if we run a virtual score on the season's speed ratings for the teams' runners, the score is not as close at:

1. Sacred Heart 52,  2. Notre Dame 70,  3. Kellenberg 77,  4. St. John the Baptist 80

Note that all the teams including Notre Dame in the less competitive NY-BQ CHSAA appeared to put out maximum effort at sectionals and their speed ratings were at or above their standard levels. Kellenberg and SJB moved their numbers up a ways to put a big scare into Sacred Heart. The big difference between the CHSAA championship and the sectionals is that there will be a lot more teams involved, and about 150 runners will be in it as opposed to less than half that at the NSCHSAA. This year Sacred Heart looks ready to shine because its top five are all rated to come in before the big bulge of finishers in the race, while Notre Dame especially but also Kellenberg and SJB are projected to lose points to the Spartans in the 4-5 spots.  But projection numbers don't always dictate how the actual race will go, so here's how each of the four teams can win the title.


Again, big efforts will be needed from all of the top four teams to run off with the trophy this year. Maggie Maier was last year's champ, and she and 2017 runner-up Sierra Dineen are expected to again have a great duel down the stretch at VCP.


Top Athletes
Sierra Dinneen
11
CHS
Notre Dame
127
Maggie Maier
11CHS
Sacred Heart
126
Alyssia Brown
9CHS
Notre Dame
112
Giavanna Comerford
10CHS
Notre Dame
110
Maureen Lewin
12CHS
Kellenberg108
Hailey Marcello
12
CHS
St. John the Baptist
106
Brigid McCabe
10CHS
Notre Dame (Manhattan)
105
Shannon Thieke
11CHS
Sacred Heart
104
Adia Palmer
11CHS
Bishop Loughlin
104
Nicoleta Papavasilaki
12CHS
Maria Regina
102
Brianna Lausev
12CHS
Kellenberg
101
Helen Moloney
10
CHS
Sacred Heart
101
Marie Naudus
10
CHS
Sacred Heart
97
Maya Richardson
12CHS
Kellenberg96
Kerri McCormack
11
CHS
St. John the Baptist
95
Morgan Murray
12CHS
St. John the Baptist
95
Kathleen Healy
9CHS
Sacred Heart
92
Kelly Parker
10CHS
St. Anthony's
92
Chiara Cinquemani
12CHS
St. Francis Prep
91
Madeline Lay
12CHS
Kellenberg
91
Sabrina Spezia
12
CHS
St. John the Baptist
91
Madison Isnardi
11
CHS
St. John the Baptist
91




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