Summary:  Last year Xavier won its first CHSAA championship in in 75 years, and from early in the season the Knights have been ranked among the top teams in the state as they rolled to the win in the NY-BQ CHSAA championship meet at sectionals. Any ideas that Xavier had already basically assured a repeat CHSAA title behind its top five of Josef Rafael Oettl, Michael Crorkin, Sawyer Gwyn-Rowson, Aidan Donahue, and Fergus McDonnell changed last Wednesday at the NSCHSAA meet when St. Anthony's ran to its best speed ratings of the season at 166.8 even with frontrunner Mason Gatewood just pacing the Friars' 2nd and 3rd guys Matthew Payamps and Brendan Dearie to a 1-2-3 finish.

Now we should get the classic showdown that was expected at the beginning of the season, pitting the Knights' solid at-the-top season against the Friars' recent surge. St. Anthony's now enters the meet with the higher speed ratings, but Xavier's very small compression between the first and fifth runner and much greater depth still makes the Knights the favorites here.

The numbers indicate that there should also be a close battle for 3rd between Kellenberg and St. Peter's, the 2nd place teams at their respective sectionals. Both teams have a strong top 3 of David Lozipone, Joshua Michel, and Francis O'Brien for the Firebirds and 2016 champ Ryan Tierney, Dom Boccia, and Marc Carrera for the Eagles, so 3rd place may be decided by where the two teams' 4th and 5th guys end up. Following the top four teams there should be a scramble, as Iona Prep and a highly compressed Regis team will likely be battling St. John the Baptist, Monsignor Farrell, and Chaminade for the 5th spot.

Last year's champ Ryan Tierney is back to defend his title after a 2nd place finish in the NY-BQ CHSAA meet, but it would be hard to pick against Manhattan Eastern States and NSCHSAA winner Mason Gatewood this year. Xavier's NY-BQ CHSAA winner Josef Rafel Oetll will also be up near the top.

For what its's worth, a virtual meet score based on current season's speed ratings for the CHSAA runners has the following score for the top four teams: 

1. Xavier 44, 2. St. Anthony's 67,  3. Kellenberg 136,  4. St. Peter's 152. 

However, the gap between the top two has closed up over the last week, and a lot of runners are clustered in the 154-161 speed rating area, so any movement by St. Anthony's 4th and 5th positions to get above that group could result in a big pick up in points. On the other hand, Xavier has had two weeks to get seven guys pumped up for a big showing on Saturday.