2016 NY Boys XC Preview: CHSAA

CHSAA Preview
2016 Season Overview for the CHSAA

2015 was a very good year for the the CHSAA. St.Anthony's and Xavier battled each other throughout the season for league supremacy, with the Friars always a little ahead in the CHSAA championship, Federation, and NXN-NY.  The Federation meet had especially great action as St. Anthony's won its second straight title and Xavier finished 2 points behind in 2nd. Also having a special year was Fordham Prep's Conor Lundy who came back from an early season illness to win the CHSAA championship, place 3rd in Federation and the Foot Locker Northeast qualifier, and then wrap it all up with a 7th at Foot Locker Nationals.

Now it's another year though, and the CHSAA is in a far different position from where it began and ended 2015.  The top 5 teams in the 2016 season preview are averaging about 6 TR points less than the teams for their respective positions last year. The top 10 returning runners are averaging about 10 TR points less than last year's preseason top 10. The difference is big and startling. St. Anthony's and Fordham Prep lost their top five guys, St. Joseph's Collegiate of Buffalo lost its top 3, and only three of the top 17 finishers in last year's CHSAA championship are returning. Can the teams of the CHSAA survive such a cataclysm?

The CHSAA will likely be missing some of the sparkle of the previous two years, but the teams will forge on. Xavier has three of last year's top 5 back, and senior Giancarlo Cipri and juniors Josef Raphael Oettl and Sawyer Gwyn-Rowson give the Knights three of CHSAA's top returning runners and some strong hopes for their first crown in 85 years. St. Anthony's will look to rebuild behind its sole returning top-20 CHSAA returner, sophomore Matthew Payamps, and a big effort from members of last year's JV squad. Chaminade appears ready to move into the CHSAA's third spot with enough returners from last year's 5th place team to make the Flyers dream of taking their first title in three years.

Out west, St. Joseph's graduated much of last year's varsity including frontrunner Anthony Belfatto, and the Marauders are now likely a little behind in the battle for the Monsignor Martin title. Canisius and St. Francis seem positioned to duel for the top spot with most of their varsity back, but they'll still be watching for St. Joe's coming on from behind.

The role of the lead guy in the CHSAA falls to Xavier's Giancarlo Cipri, but with so much room at the top after the departure of last year's big senior class, there are going to a lot of young guys taking a shot at the top.

The CHSAA guys are in an early pack in the championship race as Fordham Prep's Conor Lundy and the St. Anthony's team begin their drives for crowns in 2015.
Top 5 Teams at 2016 CHSAA Championship

1. St. Anthony's 422. Xavier 543.Fordham Prep 844. St. John the Baptist 965. Chaminade 127
Projected Top 5 Teams for 2016 from Returners' 2015 TR Ratings

1. Xavier 164.62. St. Anthony's 157.43. Chaminade 156.84. St. John the Baptist 150.65. Kellenberg 150.0
Projected Next 5 Teams for 2016 from Returners' 2015 TR Ratings

6. Canisius 147.6

7. St. Francis-Buffalo 145.88. St. Peter's 149.4

9. Regis 142.0

10. Fordham Prep 140.6

St. Anthony's had the numbers to win the CHSAA championship, as here Ryan Kutch in front and Ryan Dearie in back took 5th and 4th as the third and second guys in for the Friars. Christian Raslowsky of Xavier finished 3rd and Robert Guidocipietro of St. Joseph by the Sea was 6th.

Top 2016 Returning Runners by Last Year's TR Rating
Name Team GradeSection CHSAA Place Season TR
Giancarlo CipriXavier12NY-BQ7176
Patrick KainSt. John the Baptist11NS9170
Josef Raphael OettlXavier11NY-BQ13170
Sawyer Gwyn-RowsonXavier11NY-BQ19170
Christopher StrezelinskiChaminade12NS25164
Connor FitzpatrickChaminade12NS18161
Ryan TierneySt. Peter's11NY-BQ21160
Matthew PayampsSt. Anthony's10NS20160
Jack EllwoodRegis12NY-BQ23159
Dutch SchultzSt. Anthonys12NS1 (JV)159
Sean VierlingSt. Anthony's12NS27158
Andrew MichalskiSt. Francis-Buffalo12Buffalo7th (MM-Buff)158

Fordham Prep's Conor Lundy chases Carthage's Noah Affolder at the Federation meet as he leads an onslaught of CHSAA runners that swept St. Anthony's and Xavier to 1st and 2nd.

Teams by Rank

1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5

6 - 7 - 8 - 9 - 10