The Top Quartet:

As Bill Meylan puts it, this is the most competitive race of the year so far, Invitational or otherwise, in the entire country. Never has the Class A race been so up in the air. It includes three athletes who have struck well into the 150's for Speed Ratings, and another who was on course for such a performance, before a accident sidelined her training before Sectionals. Jessica Lawson (Corning) is arguably the class of the field. Despite a loss at McQuaid, Lawson returned two weeks later and smashed the coveted Manhattan Course Record. Come Sectionals, she avenged her McQuaid loss in dominating fashion, crushing Molly Huddle's course record at next year's State Meet Course, clocking a 157 Speed Rating. And yet, there is Abbey Wheeler (Elmira), who is having a standout season of her own. Wheeler was the athlete who handed Lawson the defeat at McQuaid, as well as putting in strong performances at both the Mansfield Invite, and her Sectional Champs. The pair have spent their entire High School careers racing each other, and it will culminate on Saturday.

The Wild Card in the race has got to be Kelsey Chmiel (Saratoga). She has attacked course records at both Queensbury and Saratoga Park, becoming only the 6th girl ever under 17mins at the latter. On the one hand, it could be argued that she has only run on flatter courses this season, a stark contrast to the hills of Monroe-Woodbury. On the other hand, Chmiel may be the only athlete yet to realize her own speed. Each victory this season has come at least 30-45 seconds ahead of the rest of the competition. What will happen when the freshman finds some competition that can stick with her? The sky is the limit.

And then there is Kaitlyn Neal. The FM senior took home a second place finish at Manhattan, just seconds off Lawson's record run. She has taken home plenty of course records of her own. And yet, a week before Sectionals, she was struck by a car from behind, and forced to miss some training. Despite the adverse conditions, she still went #3 All-Time on the VVS course that played host to some of the States Greatest athletes. If anyone is primed to break 150 for the first time on Saturday, it would be Neal, who has two weeks recovery from her incident.

The Wildcards

Next, we have a slew of girls that could win State Titles anywhere in the country not named New York. Mary Hennelly (Suffern) got the best of Katelyn Tuohy (North Rockland) in a season best performance at Rockland Counties, but Tuohy avenged the loss a week later with an 8th Grade course record at Bowdoin to win Sectionals a week later. Carly Benson (West Genesee) closed the gap on Kaitlyn Neal significantly at Sectionals, and could continue to close the gap. Claire Walters (FM) ran with Neal for a majority of that Sectional Race, and looks to finish top ten as only an 8th grader. And then there is the home team advantage that Katie Munks (Monroe-Woodbury) brings to the table. She knows the course better than anyone, and could be a big difference.

The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States
1   Jessica Lawson        11   04-A    Corning                154
2   Kelsey Chmiel         9    02-A    Saratoga               149
3   Kaitlyn Neal          12   03-A    FM                     148
4   Abbey Wheeler         12   04-A    Elmira District        147
5   Katelyn Tuohy         8    01-A    North Rockland         145
6   Mary Hennelly         8    01-A    Suffern                143
7   Carly Benson          10   03-A    West Genesee           142
8   Claire Walters        9    03-A    FM                     142
9   Kathryn Munks         12   09-A    Monroe-Woodbury        141
10  Alex Harris           11   01-A    North Rockland         140
11  Danielle Jordan       12   02-A    Shenendehowa           139
12  Emily Bini            8    02-A    Guilderland            138
13  Reilly Siebert        10   08-A    Syosset                138
14  Palmer Madsen         10   03-A    FM                     137
15  Sophia Ryan           10   03-A    FM                     136
16  Peyton Engborg        10   02-A    Saratoga               136
17  Samantha Levy         12   03-A    FM                     135
18  Kathryn Tenney        9    02-A    Colonie                134
19  Alexandra DeCicco     12   11-A    Sachem East            134
20  Lauren Chapey         12   01-A    Mamaroneck             133
21  Rebecca Walters       10   03-A    FM                     133
22  Paris Fenoff          9    02-A    Saratoga               133
23  Julia Zachgo          11   02-A    Shenendehowa           133
24  Maryanna Lansing      12   02-A    Shaker                 132 
26  Sammy Watson          11   05-A    Rush-Henrietta         131
27  Jennie Prial          11   09-A    Warwick                130
28  Katrina Patterson     11   06-A    Clarence               130

The Matchup of the Year

Arguably the two greatest programs in Cross Country history are set for a collision course a full season in the making. Fayetteville-Manlius is US #1, while Saratoga can be argued to be US #2. Despite both teams residing in the same State, this will be their first matchup of the year, and both teams are sharpening their edge for the matchup. There is a lot on the line for both teams. FM has won the last nine straight state titles. Before that, Saratoga had won 9 Class A titles in 10 years. The only thing standing in the way of Fayetteville-Manlius capping off a decade of dominance is the strongest Saratoga team since 2005. There is a lot on the line for two teams that are more than likely to see each other twice more before seasons end.

The Prediction

Heading into the meet, Fayetteville-Manlius has the slight lead. They have the interchangeability they have been lacking in recent years. Saratoga has the depth to challenge them, and has seen more consistency from race to race. If FM falters at any spot, Saratoga is right there to catapult past. The race this year is unique, in that many of the other teams have a single scoring displacer to put in between the teams, making the score expand. Names like Wheeler, Munks, Tuohy, and Harris all will hurt one of the two teams, depending on whose fifth is further back. This race looks to be the most exciting of the day.