As Championship Season approaches around the country, teams are switching their focus from the mega-invitationals, to more regional, and local threats. For many, the Invitational season is where you see your toughest competition, as meets can pull top end talent from around the Country.
For the unlucky few, this may not always be the case, as local competition can be as equally as competitive as any given Invitational. But for the Suburban Council Girls, they just might surpass any Invitational race so far this year.
And why may that be? It was argued that the Minnesota 6AA Sectional Meet is the most loaded Boys Sectional Meet in the country. Well, Leagues is before Sectionals in NY, so imagine having to race that twice in less than two weeks. The answer is simple to why the Suburban Council League is the toughest in the Nation.
It has the toughest competition, with the deepest teams, in the hardest schedule, with the highest stakes in the USA.
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The Teams
The Suburban Council is largely made up of the largest schools in Section 2. Those numbers range from the giant Shenendehowa at 2407, to the lesser Class B La Salle Institute at 453. The league originally held 12 schools, but has recently ballooned to 16 with the demise of the Big Ten League. But the numbers only hint at what makes the league so strong.
Section 2 has always excelled at Cross Country, both at the State Level, as well as Nationally. Looking at the State Level, 50% of the Top 10 Girls Teams in New York State reside in the Suburban Council. 50% of the Girls teams in the Suburban Council make the Top 25 Teams in the State. Thirteen runners from the Suburban Council crack into the Top 75 athletes in the entire State of New York.
Nationally, it's not much different. Saratoga reigns as US #3 in every National Ranking, and Shenendehowa is ranked either 5th or 9th. Guilderland comes in as US #27 right behind Saugus (CA), with both Burnt-Hills and Colonie cracking the Top 50.
This loading up of talent brings up a good question. Is the Suburban Council more competitive than the Easterns Race At Manhattan? Individually, probably not. But on the team front? You bet it is. As a measuring piece, Syosset finished fifth at Manhattan. Based on State Rankings, they would finish 6th in the Suburban Council. Pennsbury, who finished second to Manlius at Manhattan, would take third behind Saratoga and Shenendehowa.
And just a reminder. Unlike Invitationals, the team scoring will be low. The lower it is, the closer the meet. Entire Seasons can shift with a one point swing either up or down. There is no margin for error like most invitationals.
To put it simply, this race is loaded.
The Lineups
The quickest way to estimate a teams strength at the National Level, is to look at their Speed Ratings, 1-5. How far over 100 their fifth runner is, usually is the best indicator of success at NXN, and other Championship meets.
The Suburban Council far outweighs the average team in America. As a comparison, Shaker is an average, to above average team comparatively around the country. They have a strong individual out front, a strong pack of three in the middle, and a fifth who would be competitive to finish in the Top 50-75 of any race. And yet, in the Suburban Council, there is a flood of talented teams alongside them.
Saratoga has 12 athletes over the 100 speed rating mark, and they haven't run a rated race since mid-September. That number could have very well increased significantly. They were projected to do very well at the Great American Invitational in North Carolina, before a hurricane derailed those plans. In their Dual Meets, they've averaged 17:10 and 18:10 on varying 3mile and 5k courses. Shenendehowa has 8 athletes over the 100 benchmark, as well as a major win at the McQuaid Invitational. Burnt-Hills also won their division at McQuaid, and have shown significant improvement, putting 6 girls over the 100 mark, as has Colonie.
No way around it, these teams are loaded with talent.
The Schedule
There are those around the country who claim to have the toughest schedule in Cross Country, and claim it has an adverse effect on their performance at NXN. Those people must not know about the Suburban Council. Let me break down the schedule for a team with National ambitions.
10/31 - Suburban Council Championships (Saratoga Performing Arts Center)
11/6 - Section 2 Championship / State Qualifier (SPAC)
11/14 - New York State Championship (Monroe-Woodbury)
11/21 - Federation Championship (Bowdoin)
11/28 - NXR Regional Championship (Bowdoin)
12/5 - NXN (Glendoveer Golf Course)
There are no other teams in the nation with a mandatory schedule that difficult. While SPAC may be a lighter course in both elevation and distance, the ferocity of the competition more than makes up for it. Whoever wins on 11/6, will most likely have to face US #1 Fayetteville-Manlius at States, to vie for a State Title, on arguably the toughest XC State Meet Course in the country. Next, the Federation meet will be an opportunity for the second place team at Sectionals to take a run at a State Title. Saratoga has traditionally always attended, and Shenendehowa is no different. It also doesn't hurt winning the Fed Meet, if you somehow come in third at Regionals the next weekend, and are looking for an At-Large. And finally, there is Regionals, held on the same course as Feds. Bowdoin is no light tune-up for Nationals. In any conditions, it could be a brutal venture, whether it be the snow of NXR '14, the dust of NXR '13, or simply the 1.5 mile climb to the top of the hill.
The competition isn't easy, the race frequency isn't easy, and the courses are not soft-pitch tune-ups.
The Stakes
There is a lot at stake for the teams in the Suburban Council, so much so that you can't simply race a weekend light. Whoever wins the Suburban Council meet, carries that momentum into Sectionals. Almost all the teams will matchup once again at Sectionals, and the race will have multiple layers of individuals trying to qualify if their team does not make it. Only Burnt Hills will have the luxury of a more relaxed race, although with Queensbury now in their Division, it's no stroll through the park.
With a State Title on the line, nobody will go easy at Monroe-Woodbury. Manlius will be looking for their unprecedented 10th straight consecutive State Title, growing ever closer to Saratoga's record of 14 State Titles, non-consecutively. At Feds, Saratoga has won every year since 1989, sans four years when they took second, and one year taking 3rd.
And at Regionals, there can be no saving anything for the following week. Despite the fact that New York is looking at a strong possibility of two at-larges this year (It has 6 teams in the Top 25 in the Country), it can be hard to predict the At-Large committees moves (we're looking at you, Rush-Henrietta decision makers). If you want in, you have to race to win.
There is no letting up for the teams of the Suburban Council.
And What About The Boys?
No, we didn't forget about the boys. They simply don't have the depth that the girls teams do. Only the Saratoga boys break into the State's Top 10. But what they lack in team strength, they make up for with individuals.
Aidan Tooker puts himself in the conversation as the Top New York Runner of 2015. The only thing in his way, (Besides a hurricane derailing a run at Drew Hunter at Great American), is an undefeated Noah Affolder. Affolder has made his intentions known that he will be shooting for Foot Locker. Tooker has made NXN three times, and heading to Foot Locker would likely be the only time to two would meet head to head, besides the possibility of Feds. The race between these two could be the closest we've seen in the past few years.
Noah Carey (NY #4), Jake Johnson (NY #8), and Paul Nichols (NY#26) round out the other top individuals set to race at Suburban. While it may seem like Tooker has a healthy gap on the trio, the race for second could come down to just that, seconds. It should prove to be a killer race, with a real threat to John Trautmann's 14:35 course record.