2013 NY Girls XC Preview: Overall and Federation

13--  Who's getting tickets for Portland?  It appears that the years of NY teams getting four spots at NXN are over, as Nike may be tired of seeing the Empire State divvying up most of the top spots. But with likely just three team tickets available for a septet of the standard duo of Fayetteville-Manlius and Saratoga plus Penfield, Suffern, Liverpool and B powers Holy Names and Burnt Hills, there is a real question of whether the NXN-NY field is now top to bottom superior to an NY-less NXN Nationals. And if you survive and conquer at NXN-NY, the romp through the Portland Meadows mud feels like running light-footed on the Moon.

12--  Who will be the big singles hitters?  Last year 22 of the runners in the top 20 lists for the four A-B-C-D classes were freshmen or younger, and there were another 6 total in the CHSAA top 20 and PSAL and AIS top 10. Among these precocious ones who don't respect their elders were Class A champ Megan Reilly along with Olivia Morrow and Maryanna Lansing, Class B standouts Sophia Tasselmyer and Stephanie Gerland along with 7th grader Lydia Williams and Emily Digman, and Class C States runner-up Abby Gugel and Kaitlyn Neal, Ashleigh Crawford, Kaitlin Ryan, and Jamie Kasza. Class D was the fountain of youth as States 2nd and 3rd places went to Tori Spezio and Hope Pietrocarlo, and others in the top 20 in the ratings included Megan Marsh, Margaret Champagne, Samantha Fanion, Linda Smith, Marissa Jones, Julia Russell, and Christina Platt. Eighth-grader Paris Calcagnini was the AIS champ with Caroline Beroutsas and Marika Nuss following behind, the PSAL meet had Aaliyah Regg Wajid finishing 8th, and the CHSAA included Gianna Mincone and Tara Kelly among its top group. XC is maybe the one sport that belies the old adage, "We're not getting any younger," and 2013 will again witness a huge youth movement with some of the names above like Williams, Calcagnini, Ryan, Fanion and Russell ready to help lead an insurgency carried onward by Julia Zachgo, Rachel Ludwikowski, Katrina Patterson, Kamryn Macintosh, Eva Scott, and Ashley Watson.

11-- Which team has the biggest axe to grind?  Due to the bad things wrought by Hurricane Sandy last year, North Shore never got a chance for a Sectionals duel and a shot at defending its States B title. This year the Vikings will have a little extra focus in all those late October and early November races leading up to States.

10--  Who's this year's Comeback Kid?  There are always runners in XC who are trying to return to the elite level they attained when they were young and carefree and not bugged by physical ailments. Fighting back from injuries, both West Genesee's Laura Leff and Hamilton's Sage Hurta had fine years in 2012 as Leff was ranked among the top 11 runners in the state and Hurta was high up among the Class D runners, but Leff finished 3rd at Footlocker Nationals in 2011 and Hurta won the 2010 Class D title. After some promising results during the spring's track season, both could be on their way back toward the top again this fall.

9-- Who's got the biggest rebuilding project?   A number of teams face big challenges to claw their ways back to the top this year, but who faces the steepest climb? Is it no. 5 nationally Saratoga, a team that will be running without its top 3 from 2012? Sounds reasonable. Or how about no. 4 nationally East Aurora which lost its 2-3-4 runners? Could be. Other teams such as Rush-Henrietta, North Shore, Nanuet, and Greenwich said good-bye to some top runners, and even the nation's top team lost its top 3 runners from last year's NXN race, so Fayetteville-Manlius has issues too. A lot of brick and mortar and fleet feet are needed for these rebuilding jobs.

8-- Which team is the biggest shooting star on the rise?  Although not in the optimal place for winning a quick title, Liverpool in S3-A has made a fast ascent behind Fayetteville-Manlius and enters 2013 as one of the top 5 teams in the state. An old new kid on the block is Pittsford-Mendon, which is again going like gangbusters in S5-B after a three year absence from States.

7--  Which sectional race will be the most explosive?  Section 2's Class A battle is lining up six teams going from Saratoga to Shenendehowa to Shaker to Guilderland to Colonie to Bethlehem that enter the season within 12 TR points of each other above the century mark, and few others like Niskayuna who could also leap into the fray with another strong runner. Section 11's Class A also has six teams grappling for the title at close quarters, as Northport has a small edge over Sachem East, Sachem North, Ward Melville, Kings Park and Bay Shore, with Smithtown also hoping to join the action. Both sectional races should see some fireworks.

6--  Who runs NYC?  Benjamin Cardozo's Denise Branch and Long Island-based St. Anthony's are the favorites for the individual and team tops of the NYC-area conference schools. Will a Jazmine Fray, Delany Worth, Paige Duca or St. John Villa, Kellenberg or dark-horse runner or squad rise to the challenge?

5--  Who's in the lead?  Between States, Feds, NXN, and Footlocker, there were a quartet of runners who ran first among the NY contingent, as Megan Reilly, Bella Burda, Mary Cain, and Katie Lembo all led the way at different top venues. With all four runners back for at least some of the action this year, we again have a variety of frontrunners and maybe even some new faces at the front.

4--  Are the Red Dragons' wings getting rusty?  When Maple Grove first began its run of States D titles, the average grade level of the team's runners was at a mid middle school level, and now three years later average for the top five runners is 11.2. With three seniors on this year's top group, the need is looming for an elixir of young Dragon blood to keep the team going strong in crunch time. Recruiting enough legs is always a challenge at tiny D schools, but with a top duo of Hope Pietrocarlo and Megan Marsh still only sophomores and the team remarkably going into the season as one of top 10 rated teams in NY, the Dragons look ready to light things up in 2013.

3-- Are the Broncos going to be happier by the dozen?  Even without the services of its top duo of Mary Cain and Meredith Rizzo from 2011, Bronxville banded together and got it 5th straight States championship last year to run the tally to 11. As one of the two teams in the state returning 7 or more 100+ TR runners and with the disappearance of last year's States C runner-up Tully from the class war, the Broncos appear to be set to romp to their 12th title unless another top C team can find some magic. 

2--  Can Holy Names break all the way through this year? ?  After taking its second States title in seven years in 2012, the Academy of the Holy Names enters this season with even more energy with the top NYS rating after getting a boost with the transfer of new frontrunner Olivia Morrrow from Saratoga to help cover the loss of longtime leader Catherine Maloy to graduation. But the team faltered just enough at the NXN-NY regionals last year to shut the doors for them to Portland Meadows, even though they appeared to be among the top 10 teams in the nation. So the big question here is whether HN can seal the deal this year and strip the NXN selection committee of any excuses to keep the team from Nationals.

1--  Is FM in trouble?  Fayetteville-Manlius has won 7 state and national titles in a row and last year crushed the competition at NXN by an astronomical score. But there are some dark clouds for the Hornets to fly through in 2013 after losing perhaps their top runner Mary Barger due to a family move. The team will be minus 6 of 2012's top 10 runners due to graduation and Barger's transfer and have only five 100+ TR runners returning, which could be an issue for a team that has been hit by the injury bugs to a top runner the last three years. Entering 2013, FM is no longer first on the TR charts for NY as Holy Names has pulled together the biggest number.  But precedence has been made before in the Hornets ability to restock.  This is still the team that went on to dominate every meet last year, and some help from the soccer field could prove to be a game changer. 

Feds Up    Saratoga won its 4th straight team title at the Federation Championship, and also for the fourth straight year the individual title was won by a runner who hailed from within 50 miles of the Bowdoin Park host site in Poughkeepsie (Aisling Cuffe x 2, Mary Cain, Bella Burda). Knowing the course is obviously the key to winning, though learning to love that hill is a bit of a challenge.

Streaking Ball   Fayetteville-Manlius celebrated its 7th straight States title in 2012, tying the Hornets with Honeoye Falls-Lima for the longest streak there.

Double Trouble     For the first time since 2005, none of the winning States teams had an individual titlist at the top. But for the fourth straight year, at least one of the races featured a duo of teammates in the 1-2 spots, as Greenwich's Madeline Montague and Tori Spezio took the first two places in Class D.

My number is what???? Noooooooo! You're kidding, right? That's just evil!    Each of the section committees at States are given a hundred jersey numbers to hand out to their maximum of 96 runners, with the first digit beginning with the section's number, so Section 1 has numbers 100 through 199 and Section 11 has 1100 through 1199. Now, Section 6 has the number 666 at its disposal, but it doesn't have to hand it out to some poor wretch of a runner because it has four extra numbers to play with. But for whatever impish reason, the section committee has chosen for the last three years (and maybe more) the devilishly poor idea of assigning it to one of its qualifying girls, and the results have been truly demonic. In 2010 a Clarence runner ran about a minute off her standard pace from earlier in the season. Fredonia has been the receiver of the hot potato number the last two years, and both times the cursed digits have done their nasty work, especially last year when the team's frontrunner wearing the triple-6 ran 2 1/2 minutes off her usual pace. Sure, injuries could have played a part, but maybe no number, no injury. Guys, it's really time to deep-six that number 666. Please.

Going for a Perfect 6   Just plain number 6 is a number that one runner from Section 6 would be happy to get a hold of. Marta McLaughlin of East Aurora got the final medal for 20th place in the 2008 States B race, and five years later she is looking to pick up her 6th States medal and become the first runner to accomplish that feat since Shaylyn Tuite of Pittsford Mendon did it in 2010. McLaughlin's top finish was as a freshman when she was 2nd to Geneva's Christine Driscoll while leading her team to its 6th straight B championship.

Comfortably Close   For the first time in 10 years, none of the States races were won by less than 20 points. But on the other hand, all the races were moderately close and the winning margin was on average the closest since 2006.

Threepeat Was the Theme    Three teams at States repeated triumphs from 2011 last year, as Fayetteville-Manlius, Bronxville, and Maple Grove extended streaks, a theme that has become common. 1992 was the last year that no States champion team was a repeater, and in fact every year from 2000 on has had at least two teams repeating at States, and four teams extended streaks in 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2011, the last of which featured a complete quartet sweep in the return to the 4-class era.

Shadow Runners    The 2012 races for the individual titles in the States A, B, and C races were decided by about 3, 6, and 2 seconds respectively, and the average margin of 8.75 seconds for all four races overall was the closest since way back in 2000. If the races seemed exciting at Elma Meadows, it's because they were.

Sisterrrrrrrrrrr!    11 sets of sisters including 24 runners in total competed at States in 2012. Both the Miller Place Guevara clan and the Candor Russell contingent made up more than half of their team's top 5. And the Russells already graduated older sis Aubree from the program, leaving Miranda, Carissa, and Julia to show that XC really runs deep in the family.

Just Doing It at NXN    The NY girls again dominated at NXN in Portland in 2012 as Fayetteville-Manlius won its 7th title and East Aurora and Saratoga finished in the top 5. Holy Names clearly should have been out west also for a top 10 finish, but at least in 2012 the Nike selection committee chose to distribute the four at-large berths to four different regions instead of just plumping up the California region as has been the usual agenda. NY's at-large pick East Aurora finished a stunning 4th, while the other at-large selections finished outside the top 10. And the CA schools finished 16th, 17th and 20th among the 22 teams. That's why New York is the Empire State.

A Race to B Remembered     In the 2008 States Class B race at Sunken Meadows, Amherst's Brenna Symoniak won out over a medal-winning field of dazzlingly young talent. The then 14th-place 8th-grader Megan Young of Nanuet went on to win both the 2009 and 2012 B titles, 4th place sophomore Christine Driscoll of Geneva captured the 2010 B title, 3rd place freshman Samantha Nadel of North Shore took the 2011 B race ahead of another 2008-B veteran and teammate Brianna Nerud, and 20th-place 7th grader Marta McLaughlin of East Aurora enters 2013 as one of the favorites for that B championship.

Young and Hungry    Lydia Williams of Holy Names medaled in the Class B race as a 7th grader in 2012 as she finished 11th. It was the first time since Marta McLaughlin of East Aurora captured the last medal in the 2008 States B race that a runner in any class above Class D finished in the top 20 as a 7th grader.

How Gross!    Fayetteville-Manlius's 144-point winning margin at NXN Nationals last year was 6 times bigger than in 2011 and 56 points bigger than its previous high of 88 points in 2007. The Hornets' 54 point total was not their lowest though, as they halved that score at 27 in 2010. The competition at NXN for the 2nd through 6th places was the closest ever, as five teams finished within 21 points of each other, and the 2nd through 8th place teams were separated by only a 40-point span, all helping FM to its gross margin.

Friar Experience    For the third year in a row, St. Anthony's was the top non-NYSPHSAA team at the Federation meet as the Friars ran to a 14th place. The team looks well set for 2013 and may challenge for a top-10 place at Feds like St. John the Baptist got in 2009.

Drat and Double Drat    The final team previewed in this year's guide is Silver Creek, a squad that has the unenviable task of trying to beat out Maple Grove for the Section 6-D title. The Black Knights were most recently at States twenty years ago, but in 1987 they lost the States C title by 1 point and then followed in 1988 with a tie-breaker loss for the championship. Ouch!

November 7s    Ten 7th-graders were in action at Elma Meadows, maintaining a long tradition of precocious pre-teens at States. Among the standouts, in Class A, Lexi Peters clinched Rush-Henrietta's 3rd-place team finish as the 5th runner in for the Comets. Holy Names' Lydia Williams impressively medaled in 11th place for the Class B champs. Brittany Pennell was the 5th runner in for Tri-Valley in Class C, and in Class D, Clara Walker was the 2nd runner in for Stony Brook and Heather Winnie and Samantha Taveras were the 3rd and 5th runners in for Haldane.

Manhattan Transfer Story   For 8 of the 9 Nike national championship years, the winner has been the team that captured the title in NY's biggest class, the lone exception being 2005 when NXN champ Hilton lost the NYS-AA race by 1 point to Saratoga. But last year for the first time since 2006 the winner of the Eastern States race at the Manhattan Invitational did not go on to win at Portland. Fayetteville-Manlius finished 2nd in the Eastern States last year and was 6th seven years ago when it took its first national title.

Do Not Repeat This    For the first time since 2005, there was no repeat individual winner from the year before, but Megan Young picked up her second title, imitating Tri-Valley's Heather Iatauro who also won her two championships as a freshman and senior in 2000 and 2003, marking the last time previously that a runner had any gap years between championships. 2003 was also the year that Saratoga sophomore Nicole Blood picked up her second title after going off course and DQing as a freshman.

Just Wrong    The old-time NY runners get an extra treat at the States meets playing the name game, that is, checking on how their names get butchered in the souvenir program. But usually if you appear two or three times in the guide you get your name spelled right once. No such luck for Sachem's Karen Labbadia who gets in as Labiaddia in 1992 and Labradia in 1993. But Wendell Terry probably thinks he's got the best glitch for being listed as Wendy in the guys' 1957 A race.