Girls Class A - Individuals
What The Numbers Say: Let's start with the obvious statement. We don't know whether or not Katelyn Tuohy is racing. It has a big effect on how this race gets predicted.
So let's assume all three options.
If Tuohy races, and is not at 100%, is a healthy Kelsey Chmiel close enough to close that gap? Chmiel ran a 162 early in the year, then was sick herself at Great American. She returned to a Course Record at SPAC for Sectionals, proving she is as fit as she ever was. This could make the race very close.
If Tuohy doesn't race, then Chmiel is the outright favorite. She won a Class A State Title in 2016, and knows how to compete. We don't think she'll challenge Tuohy's Course Record, but there should still be a gap on the field.
If Tuohy is 100% and races, she is clearly the favorite. However, Sunken Meadow is not the most forgiving course in the State, and it might be a risk too big for an athlete with Post-Season plans.
What Can Change: Only one other athlete in the field has an XC State Title too. Claire Walters beat Chmiel back at Monroe-Woodbury, and took 5th at NXN last year. She became the 6th girls ever 14mins at VCP this year, and is capable of putting pressure on the top.
