Summary: The girls' CHSAA competition has never been closer or as deep as this year at least in recent times, and Notre Dame's four-year reign as the champs is under severe attack. The numbers mainly all seem to show that Sacred Heart should capture its first championship in 13 years and only the second ever, yet there are some puzzling elements to these numbers.

Sacred Heart has the best speed ratings, a better compression factor than Notre Dame, and the Spartans have such deep ranks that its JV team would be the 5th best unit among the CHSAA varsity teams. And yet while Notre Dame breezed to a win in the less competitive NY-BQ CHSAA sectional, Sacred Heart needed a tie-breaker to win the NSCHSAA sectional over Kellenberg, with St. John the Baptist just 5 points back. So what gives?

Although the numbers never really lie, they do show some strange things occasionally. If the top 5 Notre Dame's runners at NY-BQ CHSAA are inserted into the NSCHSAA race, Sacred Heart wins the race by a point, with the score Sacred Heart 54, Notre Dame 55, Kellenberg 56, St.John the Baptist 61. So there are four teams clumped together in a virtual tie, yet if we run a virtual score on the season's speed ratings for the teams' runners, the score is not as close at:

Note that all the teams including Notre Dame in the less competitive NY-BQ CHSAA appeared to put out maximum effort at sectionals and their speed ratings were at or above their standard levels. Kellenberg and SJB moved their numbers up a ways to put a big scare into Sacred Heart. The big difference between the CHSAA championship and the sectionals is that there will be a lot more teams involved, and about 150 runners will be in it as opposed to less than half that at the NSCHSAA. This year Sacred Heart looks ready to shine because its top five are all rated to come in before the big bulge of finishers in the race, while Notre Dame especially but also Kellenberg and SJB are projected to lose points to the Spartans in the 4-5 spots.  But projection numbers don't always dictate how the actual race will go, so here's how each of the four teams can win the title.

Again, big efforts will be needed from all of the top four teams to run off with the trophy this year. Maggie Maier was last year's champ, and she and 2017 runner-up Sierra Dineen are expected to again have a great duel down the stretch at VCP.