Top Ten Thoughts So Far
At this point in the year, the thoughts of post-season success becomes more tangible to the teams in the conversation. The Speed Ratings gave you an idea of the talents between the top teams, and the MileSplit50 gave you a look at how the National Editors think that race may play out.
The Speed Rating Merge is a very rudimentary metric in predicting the actual race. It is successful in what it hopes to achieve - a brief glimpse at the raw potential of each team - but fails in accounting for team variability and performance regressions. For an accurate prediction of NXN based on Speed Ratings, we leave that to Bill Meylan the week before NXN, where weighted averages are more key than Season Best Ratings.
We are now halfway through the season, with State Meets popping up in the results. There is no better time to see where we're at, and where we might be going.
1. Great Oak Leads The Ratings, But Not The Rankings - The biggest difference between the SRNM and the MileSplit 50 is the placement of the Great Oak team, both Boys and Girls. The MileSplit50 Rankings are the more accurate depiction. Their high Speed Ratings come from courses with very little variability factors (weather, terrain, temperature, travel). The ratings from Bob Firman and Mt. Sac (courses that apply those factors) are a more realistic representation. Still a good team on both genders, but far from the runaway favorites the Merge would make it seem.
2. Who Are The Real Favorites For The Girls Team Title? - Looking at weighted averages, past history, and anticipated peaking, I would have to give Summit of Oregon the top nod as of right now. On Paper, Yorkville is the better team, with the highest placing 4th and 5th runners in the field, and the second highest third girl. They've traveled to Griak, and proved they can handle the plane ride. So why the reversal? Summit doesn't have to travel, doesn't have the time change, and has been to NXN before. When the margins are slim, that matters. Mountain Vista, Wayzata, and Naperville North plus Claremont and Great Oak have all been to NXN before, putting them in contention as well. It's most likely going to be the closest NXN Girls Race ever, minus 2013.
3. NY Girls Sweep Possible - Two New York Girls sit atop the rankings for the Individual Speed Ratings. While Katelyn Tuohy has not announced which National Meet she will be attending, Kelsey Chmiel has. She has never finished outside the Top at NXN, and was well ahead of the field (minus Tuohy) last year. If she is to return at full health, she has to be considered a favorite. Even not at full health (she mentioned in her post-race interview for Great American that she was sick), she still ran a 154.40, which would be the #3 mark regardless. If the two girls split the National Meets, NY could see a win in both.
4. What Does Tuohy Do? - The decision of which Regional Tuohy will compete in comes down to her Coach, and what he believes their chance of getting an NXN spot could be. As of right now, the NXN-NY Regional has three teams looking at two spots. An At-Large is unlikely at this point. Liverpool, Manlius, and Saratoga seem to have a lead on the State. It would seem like Foot Locker is more likely. It would provide Tuohy with the more challenging path, as the VCP 5k Course Record, and the Balboa Course Record will require efforts Tuohy has not needed to expend to break some of her previous course records. Both marks are very good. Update: North Rockland improved at their local team Championship. They are now in the hunt for a team title.
5. And Then What - Considering Tuohy far and away from the field, and Claudia Lane out for the season, who gives Chmiel the best competition? Emily Covert seems like the strongest contender, running strong times throughout the season. Katelynn Hart was closest to Chmiel at NXN (15secs off), but also has to deal with running two Regionals in a row, and the thought of running well at Foot Locker the week after. Most intriguing may be Sydney Masciarelli. Untapped potential all season, where her first real challenge will be NXN-NE, a location where she can match her time up to Chmiel's. Who knows how fast this soph can go with real competition.
6. A Mess For The Boys - For as long as I can remember, there hasn't been a year for the Boys that has been more open ended in terms of an Individual Title. In the past, there was a clear favorite. Cheserek, Futsum, Drew Hunter. Even when there were slight upsets, like Aidan Troutner beating Brodey Hasty, they were only considered upsets because there was indeed a favorite. The field at the top for the boys is so close, nearly anyone in the Top 25 is capable of a National Title, depending how the field distributes itself between the two meets.
7. Could The Unattached Sweep? - For the first time, there are two athletes within the Top 10 in the Country, that are ineligible to run for their HS Varsity Teams. Easton Allred has been running in both JV events, as well as College Open Meets, after his State Association deemed his transfer as "Athletically Motivated." For Crayton Carrozza of TX, he is less than a week too old to be considered an eligible athlete by his State Association, an issue that came from his non-traditional educational setting. If the pair split Post-Season Events (Allred to NXN to run as an individual alongside his HS, and Carrozza to continue the TX legacy at FL), we could see the pair sweep National Events.
8. Two At The Top For Teams - For the boys teams, there is a hierarchy, but it's not as clear as the year before. Loudoun Valley is the top team in the country. They are the defending Champs, have raced well at NXN, and have assembled a strong team. Adjusting Great Oak to their Mt. Sac marks, they are 10-20 points back, which equates to nearly dead even at an NXN setting. Because they are even, it goes back to how the last NXN went to break the tie, which is why Loudoun gets the nod. But both teams have a consistency, and should be considered favorites.
9. The Next Group - What do the next four teams on the merge have in common? Manlius, Burnt Hills, Dana Hills, and Hendricken have each had a good race, and a bad race. Where Dana Hills beat BH at McQuaid in a strong performance, BH would have returned the favor if their home meet effort was run at Clovis against DH. Hendricken was fourth at Great American, but came back to win strong against a Manlius team that was not as strong up front as they were at Chittenango. All four teams have the potential to be on the podium if they run their best race at NXN, but they don't have the consistency of the two teams ahead of them.
10. Two More - The next group in the rankings are Claremont, and CBA Lincroft. Claremont is a known entity. They have a consistency of a Great Oak or Loudoun, but not the high Speed Ratings. And then there is CBA, who had a rough going at Manhattan. Their Top 3 is solid, both at Bowdoin and VCP, but it was their 4-5 that dropped them down. We still haven't seen Troy Hill return from the year before, and as weeks pass, it's harder to ignore he hasn't race yet. If he comes back with a 180, then CBA takes a big jump. But at this point, there is too much uncertainty to make a move in the ranks.