2018 NY Boys XC Preview: Class D



Class D Preview

New York State XC Season Guide - 2018

2017 Season Overview for Class D

Replay

Beaver River has had two States dynastic runs from 1983 to 1988 and again from 1993 to 1999 during which it won 12 titles in 13 years, adding in a 2nd place in 1995. Last year after winning their 16th state championship and second title in four years, the Beavers looked ready to begin a third streak of States wins. Beating reigning champ Maple Grove by 25 points with a squad that included three seniors, Beaver River still had a big group of younger runners cheering on the varsity and that will be keeping the team going strong well into the future. And the fact the Beavers' States lead 4th place finisher Colton Kempney was an 8th grader was yet another scary item for other Class D teams to chew on.

Another young runner on the rise last year was Shelter Island's Kal Lewis, who picked up his first States title as a sophomore. Lewis then placed 8th at Federations in the year after Norwood-Norfolk's Kyle Fulk gave Class D its first Feds top-10 finisher of the last decade with a 6th in 2016. And speaking of Federations, this year will mark the 19th anniversary of the victory of a Class D team at the meet. Any NY XC fan who doesn't know the name of that winning team can just ask a Beaver River fanatic. 

Teams

Last year the preseason projections featured the reigning champs Maple Grove in a close battle with four other contenders including Sauquoit Valley, Addison, Elmira-Notre Dame, and Beaver River, who all had average TR speed ratings ranging from 155 to 148. This year Beaver River sits alone at the top, and no other team comes into the season with a rating above even 142 TR. The Beavers with a very young top 5 of Colton Kempney, Josiah Evan, Cory Demo, Dylan Williams and Brayden Campeau will likely be a big challenge to much bigger teams for many years to come, just like Mount Academy was when it ruled Class D in 2012 and 2013.

Beaver River's strongest challenge may well come from the team it edged out by 4 points at Sectionals last year, Sauquoit Valley. The Indians lost their top two runners though, so the gap to the Beavers appears to have gotten much larger.

The decrease by 21 of the upper BEDS limit for Class D teams to 240 has pushed two of the 2017 States teams Addison and Tri-Valley up to Class C and left a shrunken D Class with likely having only about 72% as many full-team representatives at Sectionals as the other classes in 2018. Two-thirds of the teams will come from Sections 2, 3, and 5, and six of the sections will have 4 or less teams, with the average for the group being 2.

The Class D situation being what it is, besides the two top teams from S3-D, the other contenders are mainly just the top team from a few sections that can still support a few squads. Oakfield-Alabama needs more depth but will likely be the top team in S5-D. Maple Hill Looks ready to go back to States from S2-D and improve on a 5th place finish. Four other likely Sectional winners that have a nice amount of youth but a need for a lot of development include Maple Hill in S2-D, Lake Placid in S7-D, Shelter Island in S11-D, and Maple Grove in S6-D. Lake Placid won the Class D title in 2015 and Maple Grove won it in 2016.

Individuals

Kal Lewis is the run-away favorite to run away with his second States title in his junior year. Lima Christian's Jacob Appleton is second rated after a 9th in the States mud last year, but third-rated Colton Kempney finished 4th at States last year and is only a freshman.



Class D guys head out at States with Kal Lewis (1127) on the lead and a lot of Beaver River orange-and-green on the right.

Top 5 Teams at 2017 States





1. Beaver River 482. Maple Grove 733 .Addison 784. Shelter Island 1145. Maple Hill 119
Projected Top 5 Teams for 2018 from Returners' 2017 TR Ratings





1. Beaver River 153.82t. Sauquoit Valley 141.82t. Oakfield-Alabama 141.84. Maple Hill 141.45t. Lake Placid 138.6
Projected Next 10 Teams for 2018 from Returners' 2017 TR Ratings





5t. Shelter Island 138.6

7. Maple Grove 136.08. Oriskany 132.8

9t. Delhi 132.2

9t. East Rochester 132.2






Next:  Notre Dame-Batavia, Trumansburg, Honeoye Central, Barker, Clymer-Sherman-Panama, Tully



Beaver River's 3-4-5 guys sealed the state championship for the Beavers by packing it in between the 28th and 30th spots.



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Teams 1-5 - Teams 6-10



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