Again, it was another crazy weekend of Nike Cross Regionals, with all but the California State Meet results blowing up our predictions and picks. But now, with the dust settled and the At-Large bids announced, we can finally take a look at the finished product heading into next week.
These are not meant to be predictions, but rather a merge of Regional performances. A lot can change in three weeks time from when the first Regionals were run. Portland will also be a stark contrast to teams coming from the warmer climates, and along with numerous other factors, you can expect the actual finish scores to change. But in the meantime, it gives us something to look at, so why not take a look?
Check them out below.
Girls Merge - Boys Merge
Thoughts On The At-Larges
Pure speculation, as I have nothing to do with the selection process
Looking back on last week, and my predictions for bids, I was 2/4 for the boys. and 3/4 for the girls. Looking at the final picks, they all make relative sense, but I can imagine there being some debate for the last slots on each side.
Here are my thoughts on the NY teams
Burnt Hills boys didn't get a bid. If I had to guess why, it would be for very similar reason that I had outlined with Lyons, IL in the first week's merge: résumé matters. They had not traveled out-of-state, or had wins against ranked teams in-state, besides a Corning team without their lead runner at McQuaid in late Sept. In the State Meet Merge, they took third as well. Had Corning gotten third at NXR, with their State Meet merge win over Regional Winner FM, it may have been a harder sell to not give NY a bid. The good news? Burnt Hills brings back 6 of 7 next year, and Corning showed the motivation a team can have after missing out on an At-Large the year before. They are also sending one as an individual, who can bring back valuable experience about the course, and the flow of the meet.
Saratoga girls did get a bid. I would imagine that for the first time, the NY Fed Meet had a large benefit for a team at NXR. On the same course a week earlier, in much worse conditions, Saratoga ran a 19:15 team average. If you were to plug that into Regionals, that would be well ahead of any team in either NXN-NY or NXN-NE, trailing only Manlius. If you were to assume several girls were under the weather, frontrunner Kelsey Chmiel included. If you assume they run as they did a week earlier, they could be a Top 10-15 team again.
Many people have noted that Burnt Hills and Saratoga have very similar résumés. Yes, Burnt Hills' team average from Feds would have taken second in NXN-NY, and beaten both from NXN-NE. Yes, they had some sickness on their team as well. The biggest difference? In my opinion, the competition on the boys side for those bubble teams was much deeper than on the girls side. You can't compare teams across genders, but only with those they are directly competing with for an At-Large bid.
The depth of the girls field most likely was skewed from the MW. I mentioned Barrington, IL was facing the same issues as Lyons in terms of résumé, and with Centerville, OH buried back at 4th, despite a strong team and résumé, the girls field opened up.