2017 NY Boys XC Preview: An Overview

Change is Coming

This year in New York's guys XC previews could look very strange. We have grown used to the same-old same-old year after year as Fayetteville-Manlius marched to nine straight NXN Nationals and is joined there for the last four years by Section 3 rival Liverpool. The same handful of teams repeat as state champions as FM wins the A title in 2013 and 2014 followed by Liverpool in 2015, Pittsford Mendon gets a threepeat ending in 2015 for Class B, East Aurora wins C in 2014 and 2015, St. Anthony's has had streaks of two and four consecutive wins in the CHSAA during the last 8 years, and Collegiate wins 19 straight AIS championships before it is dethroned last year.

But this year? None of the preseason top 4 rated group of teams that includes Burnt Hills, Corning, Niskayuna, and Fairport were among the top 4 in preseason last year. 2016's dynamic little Federation championship winner Watkins Glen is not among this year's top 25 teams overall. Neither Liverpool nor Fayetteville-Manlius are rated in the top 40 teams nationally per Tully Runners preseason ratings. Burnt Hills is the one NY team rated in the top 20 nationally, and its one trip to NXN came back in 2009. Has the world of NY XC turned upside down?

Some Familiarity

Actually, there should still be a lot of familiar sights in 2017 XC. Burnt Hills, Watkins Glen, and Maple Grove are still favorites for a repeat in Classes B, C and D. St. Anthony's and Xavier are expected to go head to head again in the CHSAA, and Trinity and Collegiate should have another great scrap in the AIS. St. Peter's Ryan Tierney and Pittsford Mendon's Nathan Lawler are back to defend individual titles in the CHSAA and Class B championships. Over the last decade we have grown used to having the NYSPHSAA state championship in a place maybe one wrong turn from the Canadian border (Norwood-Norfolk, Plattsburgh, Canton), and this year we are again up in the frozen north lands at Wayne HS, though it would take a long swim for any of the runners to wind up in Ontario.

We should also remember that preseason expectations sometimes go very awry. Last year, Liverpool in the preseason was rated somewhere between 6th and 10th in NY due to the uncertainty about who would be backing up Ty Brownlow and Steve Schulz, a problem that the Warriors end up handling very well. This year, there are some gaping voids for many teams in places where seniors were cheerfully running last fall, and many of those holes will be filled in with great success, maybe even well enough to grab a ticket to NXN Nationals.

Competition is Rising

A final happy note for NY XC fans is simply that this should be a strong and deep year for the state's teams. NY may not have a trio of national powerhouse teams as it did in 2014 when FM, Liverpool, and St. Anthony's went 1st, 4th, and 8th at NXN Nationals, but 2017 should be much more lively than 2016 was. The speed ratings for the overall top 10-15 teams are running 2-3 points higher than the teams in the same position last year. The CHSAA and Class D are looking at hugely improved ratings for their competitions and most of the other divisions such as A, B, AIS, and PSAL are at least a little improved. Even Class C has maybe more depth even if it does not have two juggernauts battling at the high level that Watkins Glen and Mount Academy were at last year. Except for likely Class B and its Spartan conditions, all of the state's conferences and classes are expected to have highly competitive showdowns in the second week of November.

Cheers to yet another XC season like no other.