2016 NY Boys XC Preview: An Overview

Big changes could be afoot in the world of New York XC. For the first time in ages, none of last year's champions in the NYSPHSAA States classes or the CHSAA leagues are rated in the top position of their group to start the year. Rated at the very top of all the teams is an Ithaca squad that didn't even make the "Next" designation in last year's preseason listing of the Top 10 (to 16) teams. After having the Top 10 list headed by a Class C team to begin 2015, this year no C teams make the top group. Only one of 2015's group champions (Stuyvesant in the PSAL) and individual champion (Aidan Ryan of Trinity in the AIS) is solidly favored for a repeat. Last year, NY had four guys coming back with 190+ TRs earned the year before, and that didn't even include that 189 TR guy Noah Affolder. This year, no one is coming back with a 190+ TR.

So is this the end of days, the apocalypse, and XC armageddon all rolled up together for the fall? Not quite. Even if changes do come fast and furious this year, that could ultimately be a good thing for a sport that sometimes seems a little too set in an inflexible caste system of repeat winners. But it's not like the old NY XC order is gone with the wind. All of last year's team champions are at least in the top 8 of their group this year, and Pittsford-Mendon's Vikings could quickly become the favorite in Class B.. The races will just have to play out, and if the speed ratings are a bit down from last year's returning group, that just leaves big opportunities for the next wave of speed to crash down on NY's trails..

What 2016 seems almost certain to bring is a lot of close battles in the postseason contests, as a legion of teams see themselves as potential champions. Last year, the difference between the average speed ratings for Class A's 1st and 10th teams in the preseason preview was about 11 TR points, and this year it's 8.4, with the top seven teams all within about 5 points of each other. That smells of intense competition. The CHSAA has a similar three-way battle as last year, though at a much lower speed rating than last year after gigantic graduation losses.  The outlook is completely different in competitive States classes B and C this year in comparison to last year when reigning champs Pittsford Mendon and East Aurora were prohibitive favorites. The action in NY XC should be extra exciting this year, though we should probably accept that no team will be among the favorites at NXN Nationals come December. But heck, the FM girls take care of all that type of business for NY.

Working as always off the speed ratings compiled on the Tully Runners individual and team profiles, the New York State XC Season Guide provides a lot of team performance and historical data and many questions about who's going to be blazing on the trails this year.

The season's guide is split into almost a dozen sections, with this first segments devoted to a general overview of the coming XC season. Next are the previews for the PSAL (Section 12) action, the dual CHSAA Section 13) worlds centered around New York City and Buffalo, and the AIS (Section 14) independent schools also in and around NYC. The following four parts of the guide review NYSPHSAA States class action for A, B, C, and D. More than 80 profiles of the top teams add some extra depth about this year's big rivalries. The top teams are sorted on the average Tully Runners speed ratings (TR) of the top 5 returning runners, which is a convenient but certainly not optimal way to compare teams that are unbalanced or have a lot of new blood. The regression factored listings on Tully Runners are far more nuanced, but everything in preseason is fuzzy, so none of the numbers tossed into the articles have much gravity to them. And as always, whatever information from here that does enter your neuronal circuits should be expunged once September appears and the real stuff starts happening.

And as always, a big shout out to Steve Pisano, Tony Morales, Dan Pemrick, Bill Wende, Frank Healy, the Section 4 guys (Garrett Butters and Jeff Naylor), and Kyle Brazeil and VA's Lisa McArthur and the guy from Dobbs and all the other photographers who have done their best to catch the happy faces of the runners and make these pages come alive with bright colors and dazzling finishes.

Cheers to yet another XC season like no other.