Via Bill Meylan
Girls - Potential Top
Overall Contenders & Class Contenders
Pre-season team rankings have problems:
... first, they are based (in large part) on last year's results ... more recent
track results may or may not have relevance for the upcoming XC season ... some runners improve (some improve a lot) ... a few
runners transfer or quit ... new runners can join a team and make a big
difference ... So any pre-season rankings must be viewed in that context.
What good are pre-season rankings?
(1) a fun topic of
conversation during the
summer
(2) beneficial in gathering background information
for the upcoming season
Once the XC season starts, I rank individual runners and teams based strictly on performance during the current season ... So pre-season rankings are not used during the season.
To a large extent, the team listing below is just an extension of the 2015 XC season into 2016 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team is probably NOT included below ... With rare exceptions, I ignored last year's modified runners.
I limited the Combined Class list to 37 teams after starting with 70+ teams.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... I posted
scores by individual class because some people are interested
... A lot can change between mid-July and November.
New York GIRLS Teams - Combined Classes 2016
[ Combined Teams ] .. [ Class A ] .. [ Class B ] .. [ Class C ] .. [ Class D ] .. [ CHSAA - AIS - PSAL ]
Pre-Season Projection - New York Girls Team Contenders - 2016
---------------------------------------
Scores Using Top 37 Teams
---------------------------------------
Section-
Team Score Class
--------------------- ----- --------
1 Fayetteville-Manlius 75 (03-A )
2 Saratoga 90 (02-A )
3 North Rockland 190 (01-A )
4 Guilderland 315 (02-A )
5 Monroe-Woodbury 320 (09-A )
6 Corning 375 (04-A )
7 Shenendehowa 380 (02-A )
6 Webster Thomas 395 (05-A )
9 Pearl River 405 (01-B )
10 Shoreham Wading River 405 (11-B )
11 Colonie 425 (02-A )
12 Niskayuna 480 (02-A )
13 Rush-Henrietta 490 (05-A )
14 Clarence 500 (06-A )
15 Syosset 505 (08-A )
16 John Jay CR 510 (01-B )
17 East Aurora 510 (06-B )
18 Elmira District 545 (04-A )
19 Burnt Hills 550 (02-B )
20 West Genesee 565 (03-A )
21 Pittsford Sutherland 570 (05-B )
22 Suffern 585 (01-A )
23 Sachem East 600 (11-A )
24 Bronxville 610 (01-C )
25 Greenwich 615 (02-D )
26 West Seneca West 615 (06-A )
27 Bayport-Blue Pt 620 (11-B )
28 Canandaigua 620 (05-B )
29 Warwick Valley 635 (09-A )
30 Notre Dame Academy 635 (CHSAA)
31 Ithaca 640 (04-A )
32 Newfane 640 (06-C )
33 Honeoye Falls-Lima 640 (05-B )
34 Conv Sacred Heart 645 (AIS )
35 Pittsford Mendon 650 (05-B )
36 Queensbury 655 (02-A )
37 Fairport 670 (05-A )
Where did the scores come from?
... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using
2015
seasonal speed ratings ... a few speed ratings were altered based on
track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers because I wanted
to
... and then adjusted final scores for various reasons.
Note ... The scores are simply my pre-season "guess" of relative team abilities in a combined race ... I included 37 teams to show some depth.
In General ... The top three teams, Fayetteville-Manlius, Saratoga and North Rockland, are the three New York teams that competed at NXN Nationals last year ..... Fayetteville-Manlius is the defending NXN National champion and FM has won 9 of the last 10 NXN National titles ... Overall, I give Fayetteville-Manlius the advantage because of their winning tradition and an ability to reload ... Saratoga is typically deep in talent.
The uncertainty factors include the ability to reload effectively and the impact of new runners, either expected or otherwise ... My term for this is "new blood" (e.g. soccer transfers, first time XC runners, etc) which I discussed in an article 9 years ago ... For example, how much of an impact will new runners have for FM and Saratoga?? ... How much will returning XC runners improve from last year?? ... What about effective team depth or the impact of an injury/illness??
Fayetteville-Manlius, Saratoga and North Rockland have additional comments below in the Class A section.
Additional comments and information are given below by class ... Class consideration is important in the pre-season because it impacts far more runners than projections intended for Federation Championships or the NXN-NY regional qualifier.