Via Bill Meylan
Boys - Potential Top
Overall Contenders & Class Contenders
Pre-season team rankings have problems: ... first, they are based (in large part) on last year's results ... more recent track results may or may not have relevance for the upcoming XC season ... some runners improve (some improve a lot) ... a few runners transfer or quit ... new runners can join a team and make a big difference ... So any pre-season rankings must be viewed in that context.
What good are pre-season rankings?
(1) a fun topic of
conversation during the
summer
(2) beneficial in gathering background information
for the upcoming season
Once the XC season starts, I rank individual runners and teams based strictly on performance during the current season ... So pre-season rankings are not used during the season.
To a large extent, the team listing below is just an extension of the 2015 XC season into 2016 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team is probably NOT included below.
I limited the Combined Class list to 36 teams after starting with 70+ teams.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... I posted
scores by individual class because some people are interested
... A lot can change between mid-July and November.
New York BOYS Teams - Combined Classes 2016
[ Combined Teams ] .. [ Class A ] .. [ Class B ] .. [ Class C ] .. [ Class D ] .. [ CHSAA - AIS - PSAL ]
Pre-Season Projection - New York Boys Team Contenders - 2016
---------------------------------------
Scores Using Top 36 Teams
---------------------------------------
Section-
Team Score Class
--------------------- ----- --------
1 Fayetteville-Manlius 245 (03-A )
2 Ithaca 255 (04-A )
3 Corning 275 (04-A )
4 Saratoga 285 (02-A )
5 Warwick Valley 300 (09-A )
6 Xavier 320 (CHSAA)
7 Burnt Hills 350 (02-B )
8 Shenendehowa 390 (02-A )
9 Liverpool 395 (03-A )
10 Mount Academy 415 (09-C )
11 Watkins Glen 425 (04-C )
12 Somers 450 (01-B )
13 East Aurora 455 (06-B )
14 Pittsford Mendon 460 (05-B )
15 St. Anthony's 470 (CHSAA)
16 Guilderland 475 (02-A )
17 Brockport 490 (05-B )
18 Baldwinsville 495 (03-A )
19 Orchard Park 495 (06-A )
20 Queensbury 495 (02-A )
21 McQuaid 500 (05-A )
22 Chaminade 500 (CHSAA)
23 Fairport 510 (05-A )
24 Pearl River 525 (01-B )
25 Northport 540 (11-A )
26 Niskayuna 555 (02-A )
27 Kingston 560 (09-A )
28 Penfield 560 (05-A )
29 Cicero-North Syracuse 575 (03-A )
30 Sachem North 580 (11-A )
31 Fox Lane 580 (01-A )
32 West Genesee 580 (03-A )
33 Maine-Endwell 590 (04-B )
34 Smithtown 610 (11-A )
35 Arlington 620 (01-A )
36 Trinity School 640 (AIS )
Where did the scores come from?
... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations
using 2015 seasonal speed ratings ... a few speed rating ranges were
altered
based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers because
I wanted to
... and then adjusted final scores for various reasons.
In General
... Similar to other pre-seasons, I see a lot of uncertainty
in the team scores posted above ... Pre-season projections are
often made with limited knowledge (or no knowledge) of
incoming impact runners such as transfers (from other sports
or other schools) or significantly improved runners from the
previous year ... It requires guessing
.
Fayetteville-Manlius and Ithaca seem fairly close at the top ... Based on success in recent years, I tend to give teams like Fayetteville-Manlius or Liverpool a benefit-of-the-doubt in pre-season projections ... The raw numbers put Ithaca slightly ahead in some scenarios.
There are no odds-on favorites for
the NY Boys Teams entering the 2016 season ... Actually, there is not much is separating a
bunch of teams above ... One or two new impact runners could make
a big difference ... In horseracing terms, this looks like a great
betting race
... Lots of legitimate options in a wide open field ... Should be
interesting to watch the development throughout the XC season.
Additional comments and information are given below by class ... Class consideration is important in the pre-season because it impacts far more runners than projections intended for Federation Championships or the NXN-NY regional qualifier ... Profiles for the Top Individual NY Boys are available.