2015 NY Girls XC Previews -- Class A



Class A Preview
2015 Season Overview for Class A

Last year two glaring facts were noted for Class A: that the top 20 projected teams in general were averaging about 2 to 3 TR speed rating points higher than the top 20 teams of the year before, and that the top group of runners had a youngish cast with not a large amount of seniors among the leaders.

2015 is deja vu all over again as once more the teams at the top are averaging 2 to 3 TR points ahead of the teams in the same spot from the year before, and seniors are again a little on the scarce side among the elite runners, with only 1/3 in their final year. On the other hand, we're talking about the girls for whom even among the Class A runners you occasionally have nervy middle schoolers demanding their place in the sun, and this season two 8th graders from Suffern and Guilderland who earned TR ratings are among the top 14 returning runners, and there is still another 8th grade wunderkind from North Rockland that is expected to running at the very top of the ranks early in the season plus the latest Fayetteville-Manlius 8th grade ratings booster. Add in an impressive freshman group that includes a Saratoga XC newbie phenom, and it's clear that youth will be serving up some great moments this season.

The veterans will still mainly be running the show though, and Corning's Jessica Lawson hopes to return from the injuries that cost her her sophomore outdoor track season and fill the shoes of last year's dominator Bella Burda of Arlington as the top gun in Class A. West Genesee sophomore Carly Benson and Elmira senior Abbey Wheeler will likely be nipping at Lawson's heels, and FM's top trio of Sophia Ryan, Samantha Levy, and Jenna Farrell will also be taking their turns at the top.

One huge change from last year is the tightness of the race at the top of the projected Class A ratings in the preseason. Last year there was a spread of 13 points between top rated Fayettville-Manlius and 3rd rated Suffern, with Saratoga about midway between in 2nd. This year FM is still on top, but by about 5 TR points over Saratoga, with Shenendehowa in 3rd only around 7 TRs behind FM. The Hornets have boosted their ratings over last year, but the main difference is that the mainly intact Blue Streaks and Shen teams come into 2015 with much higher ratings.

The top sectional races appear to have a pretty similar cast to last year's, with FM far ahead in Section 3, Saratoga and Shenendehowa set to possibly relive the 2014 tie-breaker in Section 2, and Webster Thomas, Syosset, Monroe-Woodbury, and Sachem East again looking like healthy favorites in sections 5. 8, 9, and 11. Two new wrinkles could well show up in sections 1 and 4 though, as last year's champs Suffern and Corning suffered huge graduation losses and will enter 2015 as modest underdogs to North Rockland and Elmira.

FM will try for its 10th straight States title, and the rest of the powerhouses will look to find enough young feet to chase down the Hornets at Monroe-Woodbury for States. Saratoga will be shooting for a repeat Feds title. Between two and four of the Class A teams will probably be earning the NXN tickets to Nationals, where NY teams have locked down 10 of the 11 championships. If you think it all sounds pretty exciting, you're totally right.

The States Class A race stampedes out at Canton last year.
Top 5 Teams at 2014 States





1. Fayetteville-Manlius
20
Saratoga
85
Suffern
95
Corning 115Monroe-Woodbury 129
Projected Top 5 Teams for 2015 from Returners' 2014 TR Ratings





1. Fayetteville-Manlius
132.6
2. Saratoga
127.4
3. Shenendehowa 125.44.Monroe-Woodbury 116.45. North Rockland 113.6
Projected Next 10 Teams for 2015 from Returners' 2014 TR Ratings
6.Sachem East 113.47. Guilderland 111.68. Elmira 111.29. Suffern 110.610. Colonie 108.8

11. Webster Thomas 108.212t. Warwick Valley 107.814. Corning 107.415. Niskayuna 105.0


16. West Genesee 103.8>17.Bay Shore 103.618. Northport101.419. Shaker 101.220. Penfield 100.0
21. Lakeland-Panas 99.622. Liverpool 97.423. Clarence 95.024. Ward Melville 94.625. Arlington 93.0
Next: Sachem North, Fairport, Rome Free Academy, Valley Central, Ithaca

Arlington's Bella Burda led Fayetteville-Manlius's Sophia Ryan at the States Class A championship in a season that saw the Admiral standout go undefeated from September through November and Ryan's Hornets capture their 9th straight States title and 8th NXN national championship in nine years.


Top 2015 Returning Runners by Last Year's TR Rating
Name Team GradeSection States Place Season TR
Jessica LawsonCorning1142151
Carly BensonWest Genesee1035143
Abbey WheelerElmira1246142
Sophia RyanFayetteville-Manlius1033142
Samantha LevyFayetteville-Manlius1238139
Jenna FarrellFayetteville-Manlius1239136
Danielle JordanShenendehowa12249134
Mary HennellySuffern8115133
Rachel LudwikowskiSuffern11114132
Vicky MartinezFox Lane12111132
Peyton EngborgSaratoga10221132
Kathryn MunksMonroe-Woodbury12916132
Maryanna LansingShaker12231131
Emily BiniGuilderland82--131
Anna KostarellisChurchville-Chili1156 (B)131
Julia ZachgoShenendehowa11230130
Alexandra DeCiccoSachem East121113130
Kiersten KralMonroe-Woodbury11920129
Amanda VestriWebster Thomas11518129
Katie MurphyHauppauge111132128
Abigail SpiersNiskayuna10236127
Naomi WistnerWilliamsville North9625127
Paris FenoffSaratoga9238127
Alex HarrisNorth Rockland11123127












Arlington's Bella Burda claims the Class A crown at Canton with Corning's Jessica Lawson about 10 seconds behind.
Section by Section Class A Overview
SectionTop Teams Notes
1North Rockland, Suffern, Lakeland-Panas, Arlington, CarmelDue to heavy graduation losses, three-time reigning champ Suffern will enter the season rated a little behind a North Rockland squad infused with huge 8th grade talent, and Lakeland-Panas is also hoping to step in and lead the Rebel cause in the S1-A.
2Saratoga, Shenendehowa, Guilderland, Colonie, Niskayuna, ShakerLast year Saratoga won the tie-breaker over Shenendehowa for the S2-A crown and they were also 1-2 at Feds, but this year Shen has everyone back and enters the season rated almost even with the Blue Streaks. In a loaded section that also has Guilderland and Colonie ranked in the top 10 and Niskayuna and Shaker in the top 20, anything can happen.
3Fayetteville-Manlius, West Genesee, Liverpool, Rome Free Academy, Cicero-North Syracuse, BaldwinsvilleThe reigning national champion FM team is at the head of S3-A as usual by a large margin, and West Genesee aims to hold on to the #2 spot ahead of Liverpool.
4Elmira District, Corning, Ithaca, HorseheadsCorning won a close decision over Elmira for the S4-A title last year, and this year looks to be set for another close battle after Corning lost three of its top four runners and Elmira lost three of its top six.
5Webster Thomas, Penfield, Fairport, Churchville-Chili, Hilton, Rush-Henrietta,S5-A will likely feature reigning champ Webster Thomas against Penfield and a rising Rush-Henrietta, but other teams are strongly in the hunt here.
6Clarence, Williamsville North, Lockport, Kenmore West, Frontier, Orchard ParkReigning S6-A champ Williamsville North lost three of its top four runners, while Clarence returns five of its top six, and that may be enough to put the Red Devils back on top.
7No representatives
8Syosset, Calhoun, Port Washington, Massapequa, MephamSyosset again appears to have too much power and depth for any team to mount a serious challenge in S8-A
9Monroe-Woodbury, Warwick Valley, Valley Central, Kingston, Pine BushMonroe-Woodbury looks set to repeat its S9-A title with one of the state's strongest squads, and the chief threat might come from a Warwick squad that needs two-time state champ Megan Reilly back in top form along with more depth on the squad.
10No representatives
11Sachem East, Bay Shore, Northport, Ward Melville, Sachem North, Calhoun, Eastport-South ManorSachem East has everyone back for a good shot at a repeat S11-A title, but Bay Shore, Northport, and Warde Melville should hang out among the top 25 Class A teams.



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