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Class A Preview |
2015 Season Overview for Class A |
Last
year two glaring facts were noted for Class A: that the top 20
projected teams in general were averaging about 2 to 3 TR speed rating
points higher than the top 20 teams of the year before, and that the top
group of runners had a youngish cast with not a large amount of seniors
among the leaders.
2015 is deja vu all over again as once more
the teams at the top are averaging 2 to 3 TR points ahead of the teams
in the same spot from the year before, and seniors are again a little on
the scarce side among the elite runners, with only 1/3 in their final
year. On the other hand, we're talking about the girls for whom even
among the Class A runners you occasionally have nervy middle schoolers
demanding their place in the sun, and this season two 8th graders from
Suffern and Guilderland who earned TR ratings are among the top 14 returning
runners, and there is still another 8th grade wunderkind from North
Rockland that is expected to running at the very top of the ranks early
in the season plus the latest Fayetteville-Manlius 8th
grade ratings booster. Add in an impressive freshman group that
includes a Saratoga XC newbie phenom, and it's clear that youth will be
serving up some great moments this season.
The veterans will
still mainly be running the show though, and Corning's Jessica Lawson
hopes to return from the injuries that cost her her sophomore outdoor
track season and fill the shoes of last year's dominator Bella Burda of
Arlington as the top gun in Class A. West Genesee sophomore Carly Benson
and Elmira senior Abbey Wheeler will likely be nipping at Lawson's
heels, and FM's top trio of Sophia Ryan, Samantha Levy, and Jenna
Farrell will also be taking their turns at the top.
One huge
change from last year is the tightness of the race at the top of the
projected Class A ratings in the preseason. Last year there was a spread
of 13 points between top rated Fayettville-Manlius and 3rd rated
Suffern, with Saratoga about midway between in 2nd. This year FM is still
on top, but by about 5 TR points over Saratoga, with Shenendehowa in
3rd only around 7 TRs behind FM. The Hornets have boosted their ratings
over last year, but the main difference is that the mainly intact Blue
Streaks and Shen teams come into 2015 with much higher ratings.
The
top sectional races appear to have a pretty similar cast to last
year's, with FM far ahead in Section 3, Saratoga and Shenendehowa set to
possibly relive the 2014 tie-breaker in Section 2, and Webster Thomas,
Syosset, Monroe-Woodbury, and Sachem East again looking like healthy
favorites in sections 5. 8, 9, and 11. Two new wrinkles could well show
up in sections 1 and 4 though, as last year's champs Suffern and Corning
suffered huge graduation losses and will enter 2015 as modest underdogs
to North Rockland and Elmira. FM will try for its 10th
straight States title, and the rest of the powerhouses will look to
find enough young feet to chase down the Hornets at Monroe-Woodbury for
States. Saratoga will be shooting for a repeat Feds title. Between two
and four of the Class A teams will probably be earning the NXN tickets
to Nationals, where NY teams have locked down 10 of the 11
championships. If you think it all sounds pretty exciting, you're
totally right. |
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The States Class A race stampedes out at Canton last year. |
Top 5 Teams at 2014 States |
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| 1. Fayetteville-Manlius 20 | Saratoga 85 | Suffern 95 | Corning 115 | Monroe-Woodbury 129 |
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Projected Top 5 Teams for 2015 from Returners' 2014 TR Ratings |
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| 1. Fayetteville-Manlius 132.6 | 2. Saratoga 127.4 | 3. Shenendehowa 125.4 | 4.Monroe-Woodbury 116.4 | 5. North Rockland 113.6 |
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Projected Next 10 Teams for 2015 from Returners' 2014 TR Ratings |
| | | | | 6.Sachem East 113.4 | 7. Guilderland 111.6 | 8. Elmira 111.2 | 9. Suffern 110.6 | 10. Colonie 108.8 | |
| | | | 11. Webster Thomas 108.2 | 12t. Warwick Valley 107.8 | | 14. Corning 107.4 | 15. Niskayuna 105.0 | |
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| | | 16. West Genesee 103.8> | 17.Bay Shore 103.6 | 18. Northport101.4 | 19. Shaker 101.2 | 20. Penfield 100.0 | | | | | | 21. Lakeland-Panas 99.6 | 22. Liverpool 97.4 | 23. Clarence 95.0 | 24. Ward Melville 94.6 | 25. Arlington 93.0 | | Next: Sachem North, Fairport, Rome Free Academy, Valley Central, Ithaca |
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Arlington's
Bella Burda led Fayetteville-Manlius's Sophia Ryan at the States Class A
championship in a season that saw the Admiral standout go undefeated
from September through November and Ryan's Hornets capture their 9th
straight States title and 8th NXN national championship in nine years.
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Top 2015 Returning Runners by Last Year's TR Rating |
Name | Team | Grade | Section | States Place | Season TR | Jessica Lawson | Corning | 11 | 4 | 2 | 151 | Carly Benson | West Genesee | 10 | 3 | 5 | 143 | Abbey Wheeler | Elmira | 12 | 4 | 6 | 142 | Sophia Ryan | Fayetteville-Manlius | 10 | 3 | 3 | 142 | Samantha Levy | Fayetteville-Manlius | 12 | 3 | 8 | 139 | Jenna Farrell | Fayetteville-Manlius | 12 | 3 | 9 | 136 | Danielle Jordan | Shenendehowa | 12 | 2 | 49 | 134 | Mary Hennelly | Suffern | 8 | 1 | 15 | 133 | Rachel Ludwikowski | Suffern | 11 | 1 | 14 | 132 | Vicky Martinez | Fox Lane | 12 | 1 | 11 | 132 | Peyton Engborg | Saratoga | 10 | 2 | 21 | 132 | Kathryn Munks | Monroe-Woodbury | 12 | 9 | 16 | 132 | Maryanna Lansing | Shaker | 12 | 2 | 31 | 131 | Emily Bini | Guilderland | 8 | 2 | -- | 131 | Anna Kostarellis | Churchville-Chili | 11 | 5 | 6 (B) | 131 | Julia Zachgo | Shenendehowa | 11 | 2 | 30 | 130 | Alexandra DeCicco | Sachem East | 12 | 11 | 13 | 130 | Kiersten Kral | Monroe-Woodbury | 11 | 9 | 20 | 129 | Amanda Vestri | Webster Thomas | 11 | 5 | 18 | 129 | Katie Murphy | Hauppauge | 11 | 11 | 32 | 128 | Abigail Spiers | Niskayuna | 10 | 2 | 36 | 127 | Naomi Wistner | Williamsville North | 9 | 6 | 25 | 127 | Paris Fenoff | Saratoga | 9 | 2 | 38 | 127 | Alex Harris | North Rockland | 11 | 1 | 23 | 127 |
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Arlington's Bella Burda claims the Class A crown at Canton with Corning's Jessica Lawson about 10 seconds behind. |
Section by Section Class A Overview |
Section | Top Teams | Notes | 1 | North Rockland, Suffern, Lakeland-Panas, Arlington, Carmel | Due
to heavy graduation losses, three-time reigning champ Suffern will
enter the season rated a little behind a North Rockland squad infused
with huge 8th grade talent, and Lakeland-Panas is also hoping to step in and lead the Rebel cause in the S1-A. | 2 | Saratoga, Shenendehowa, Guilderland, Colonie, Niskayuna, Shaker | Last
year Saratoga won the tie-breaker over Shenendehowa for the S2-A crown
and they were also 1-2 at Feds, but this year Shen has everyone back and
enters the season rated almost even with the Blue Streaks. In a loaded
section that also has Guilderland and Colonie ranked in the top 10 and
Niskayuna and Shaker in the top 20, anything can happen. | 3 | Fayetteville-Manlius, West Genesee, Liverpool, Rome Free Academy, Cicero-North Syracuse, Baldwinsville | The
reigning national champion FM team is at the head of S3-A as usual by a
large margin, and West Genesee aims to hold on to the #2 spot ahead of
Liverpool. | 4 | Elmira District, Corning, Ithaca, Horseheads | Corning
won a close decision over Elmira for the S4-A title last year, and this
year looks to be set for another close battle after Corning lost three
of its top four runners and Elmira lost three of its top six. | 5 | Webster Thomas, Penfield, Fairport, Churchville-Chili, Hilton, Rush-Henrietta, | S5-A
will likely feature reigning champ Webster Thomas against Penfield and a
rising Rush-Henrietta, but other teams are strongly in the hunt here. | 6 | Clarence, Williamsville North, Lockport, Kenmore West, Frontier, Orchard Park | Reigning
S6-A champ Williamsville North lost three of its top four runners,
while Clarence returns five of its top six, and that may be enough to
put the Red Devils back on top. | 7 | No representatives |
| 8 | Syosset, Calhoun, Port Washington, Massapequa, Mepham | Syosset again appears to have too much power and depth for any team to mount a serious challenge in S8-A | 9 | Monroe-Woodbury, Warwick Valley, Valley Central, Kingston, Pine Bush | Monroe-Woodbury
looks set to repeat its S9-A title with one of the state's strongest
squads, and the chief threat might come from a Warwick squad that needs
two-time state champ Megan Reilly back in top form along with more depth
on the squad. | 10 | No representatives |
| 11 | Sachem East, Bay Shore, Northport, Ward Melville, Sachem North, Calhoun, Eastport-South Manor | Sachem
East has everyone back for a good shot at a repeat S11-A title, but Bay
Shore, Northport, and Warde Melville should hang out among the top 25
Class A teams. |
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