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41st Annual Manhattan Invitational Girls Eastern States Championship Race Preview
Overview The Eastern States is rising up once more in Van Cortlandt Park in the Bronx, and 26 teams from New York to California and from Vermont to Virginia are gathering to take a shot at running down glory road. They've packed their bags and are taking on Manhattan. They're stepping to the line and taking their chance. They're burning over the bridge and taking to the hills. They're giving it their best, but only one team will take home the title. This year's stellar cast of teams include a group that have made big waves already this year, including the US 2nd-ranked team Unionville, Great American Race of Champions winner Assumption, and reigning national champ Fayetteville-Manlius. Altogether the score sheet includes the following choice talking points for the meet.
There is no place like the Manhattan Invitational to sink so blissfully into the crazed atmosphere of HS XC at its most extreme. The crowds will be relentlessly loud, the tee shirts will be awesomely entertaining, the huge expanse of portable toilets will take your breath away, the championship trophies will be bigger than some of the runners, and Lloyd's carrot cakes on the other side of Broadway will be disappearing fast. Can't be beat. Times could be very fast again with weather conditions expected at this point to be a little damp but a pleasant high 60s for temperature. Come prepared to be amazed.
Fast History of Fast During the four decades since the second coming of the Manhattan College Invitational, the meet has steadily grown to almost stupendous proportions. A hugely popular meet back in the 1920s (but without girls), the current version of the meet kicked off in 1973 and by the end of the decade the girls had started to become a force on the heels of the exploits of runners like Stony Brook's Laura Whitney. The meet has steadily added races and become one of the top three invitationals in the country. One of the 40 scheduled races gets the gun every 5 to 12 minutes to keep the hordes of runners flowing through to the screaming masses perched on the Cemetery Hill overlook or forming a deafening gauntlet at the finish. The transformation has been especially huge for the girls, whose long-time featured Eastern States race has exploded from a high-status 10 team race just 7 years ago to a showdown of national powers with 18-20 teams slated to toe the mark nowadays. The modern era kicked off in 2004 when the perennial girls national superpower Saratoga Springs won the Eastern States for the next to last time and the Blue Streaks' Nicole Blood broke the 14:00 minute barrier. The course has had many different variations over the last decade, so citing a record time is problematic, but in 2007 Carly Seymour of Central Cambria ran a 13:55 to set the lowest official time. Aisling Cuffe of Cornwall was a two-time winner of the ES, and in 2010 she ran a 13:58 and matched Blood's TR of 159 for the top rated score there. In 2011, Jillian Fanning of Fayetteville-Manlius took 1st and led her team to its 5th straight Eastern States title, but last year Tatnall's Reagan Anderson captured the win and led her team to an upset of FM. Mary Cain of Bronxville posted the top time at Manhattan in the A race when she ran a 14:03. The Eastern States is rightly considered to have the kiss of gold for those with national championship aspirations. The team that has won the ES has gone on to take the national crown at NXN in 6 of the last 9 years, and the only exceptions were in 2005 when Saratoga came in 2nd at NXN to state rival Hilton, in 2006 when Fayetteville-Manlius won its first national title after finishing 6th at ES, and last year after Fayetteville-Manlius was 2nd to Tatnall but went on to take the national title when it pulled together its full squad. Likewise, the individual winners have done well in the nationals, and Cornwall's Aisling Cuffe ran to the Footlocker title after winning the ES in 2010, and Warwick Valley's Aislinn Ryan won the FLN in 2004 and followed it with an ES victory in a downpour in 2005. Last year the order for the top 5 teams was: 1. Tatnall, 2. Fayetteville-Manlius, 3. Pennsbury, 4. Academy of the Holy Names, 5. Champlain Valley. Tatnall's Reagan Anderson was 1st, followed by Elk County Catholic's Kennedy Weisner, Valley Central's Holly Cavalluzzo, Pennsbury's Sara Sargent, and Midlothian's Kara Dickinson. All of the five except Weisner were seniors.
Preview of Eastern States Teams Two big meets over the past two weekends have already begun to shape the battle for this year's Eastern States. On September 28, the McQuaid Invitational in western New York hosted a showdown of top powers from the Northeast and Midwest regions, and Unionville, PA closed hard in the AAA race against reigning national champions Fayetteville-Manlius to hand the Hornets only their second loss in the last seven years. The Indians' dominating show of power lifted them into 2nd in the national rankings behind Carmel, IN. Last weekend the big Great American Race of Champions event in NC brought together another pack of top teams, and Assumption, KY again took home the title, while another Eastern States team La Salle, RI was 7th. Unionville, Fayetteville-Manlius, and Assumption are the top three headliners for this year's Eastern States race, and all three have the credentials needed to capture the championship if the dice and the hills roll their way. But there are a number of teams that could pull a Midlothian (2005 style) on the favorites and run off with the title. Though Tatnall appears to be far back this year after losing three of their elite top 4 runners to graduation, last year it came off a distant 3rd at Great American and upset Fayetteville-Manlius as a pair of 8th graders ran out of their minds behind the established stars. Pennsbury, Downington West, Corning and Queensbury are all teams that could be dangerous if they get a chance, and CA native Palos Verdes also looks like it has some very good numbers. La Salle is still another team that could be in the running at the top if last year's frontrunner Sheridan Wilbur can get back into action. The race strategies of the teams will be key, as Vanny punishes teams that go out too hard before the back hills, but the narrow paths can doom a team that waits too long to launch an attack. And despite legends to the contrary, the tortoise rarely wins at Van Cortlandt Park. Kennedy Weisner was the runner-up behind Reagan Anderson last year and seems to like the VCP course. She ran about 8 seconds behind Courtney Smith at McQuaid but was in a small race with the nearest runner about a minute behind. With seven runners in the race above the 140 TR level, there could be a big push that could send the winner under the 14:00 minute mark.
Seriously Speedy Girls
Team Snapshot Overview The snapshot view gives the basic info about the 25-team field listed by general estimated TR averages. For the NY teams the TR score is fairly precise based on the 2013 action. For outside-of-NY teams the TR is the score for the team's last big meet and is thus less comprehensive than the NY teams' season-compiled scores and could miss runners who were not at the selected meet. The rankings cited are mainly from Milesplit national or state listings but also include rankings from coaches' polls in states like NJ, CA, NY, PA and VA that do actually post weekly updates for teams that are linked to on the Milesplit sites. Rankings are from the last ones available at post time.
Team Profiles - by Order in Race
Overview: The Mohigans are rated #15 in WV, and this appears to be their first appearance at Manhattan in at least the last few years. Roster: Victoria Cooke (103), Hannah Pineault (96), Skylar Brooks (90), Kaitlyn Woods (86), Emma Hagerty (75) Team Data: 90.0 TR. Finished 1st at the Orange Valley AC Championship. Comments: Morgantown got a nice victory last weekend at their local OVAC meet by using a tighter pack to overcome the 2nd place team's better time average, and they have a decent shot at a top 15 place in the ES.
Overview: The Warriors are ranked #12 in NY-A and were 2nd in the B race last year. Roster: Abby McNamara (108), Maia Henry (108), Morgan Mahoney (107), Juliana Basla (107), Morgan Chewning-Kul (93) Team Data: 104.6 TR. Finished 8th in the McQuaid-AAA and 9th in the Queensbury-Championship race. Comments: Liverpool has been running a ways off their projections for 2013, which makes them a dangerous team if they are healthy coming into Eastern States.
Overview: The Hornets are ranked #6 in the US and #1 in NY, were second in the ES last year, and are the 7 time reigning national champs. Roster: Annika Avery (143), Alana Pearl (133), Jenna Farrell (129), Megan Menz (113), Riley Madsen (110), Jessica Howe (109) Team Data: 126.4 TR. Finished 2nd in the McQuaid-AAA race to Unionville. Comments: FM's heavy losses due to graduation and other factors have left them running a ways behind their customary pace, but with Avery, Pearl, and Farrell providing a strong punch at the top and the tendency for the Hornets to do some heavy development work in the second half of the season, an eighth national title is still very much in the picture. Last year after a loss at Eastern States, FM went on to win Nationals by a record 144 point margin.
Overview: The Redhawks are rated #1 in VT and took 5th in the ES last year. Roster: Autumn Eastman (144), Sophia Gorman (103), Abby Kaim (103), Emma Putre (101), Haley Harder (79), Carly Neeld (78) Team Data: 106.0 TR. Placed 2nd in the Manchester-Elite race. Comments: The Redhawks scored their second straight straight 5th place finish at ES last year, and Autumn Eastman ran to a 13th place. Eastman will likely finish a lot higher this year, but the team will need a boost from the back of the lineup to secure another top 5 finish.
Overview: The Hornets are rated #2 in DE and are the reigning Eastern States champs. Roster: Caroline Foley (106), Kieran Hanrahan (103), Kendra Riley (72), Jill Reinhardt (71), Quinn Teklets (52), Kayla Boswell (52), Jen Carr (51) Team Data: 80.8 TR. Finished 16th in the Great American Race of Champions and 11th in the Carlisle Challenge. Comments: Replacing the graduated trio of Reagan Anderson, Julie Williams, and Rebecca Salter was always going to be a tall order, and the young Hornets are pushing through a rebuilding year that will likely leave them out of the top 15 at ES on Saturday.
Overview: The Wildcats are rated #21 in NY-A and finished 2nd in the A race last year. Roster: Megan Reilly (129), Laura Rothstein (95), Agnes Eigo (87), Emily Cavanaugh (86), Darby Ginley (82) Team Data: 95.8 TR. Placed 16th in the Roy Griak-Gold and 3rd in the Warwick Valley-2 races. Comments: Megan Reilly was last year's NY Class A champ and had the second fastest time at Manhattan last year behind Mary Cain, but the Wildcats suffered some key losses to graduation last year and in a rebuilding year will be fighting for a top 15 finish in the ES.
Overview: The Judges are unranked and had their top two runners competing in last year's Eastern States. Roster: Denise Branch (126), Shaniqua Kirkpatrick (93), Alana Williams (73), Kaitlyn Jones (53), Gabrielle Brooks (10) Team Data: 71.0 TR. Finished 6th in the Mayor's Cup. Comments: The graduation of all-world Sabrina Southerland has left Denise Branch alone as the supreme Judge, but she finished 15th at last year's ES and runs this course extremely well, having just picked up the Mayor's Cup championship there last weekend. It's unclear whether she will running alone or will be joined by teammates like Shaniqua Kirkpatrick.
Overview: The Whippets are ranked #5 in PA. Roster: Aislinn Devlin (137), Michelle Myland (117), Tabitha Loftus (107), Brenna McNamee (99), Hailey Barnhill (98) Team Data: 111.6 TR. Finished 1st in the Carlisle-Challenge. Comments: The Whippets have already flexed their muscles with a big win at Carlisle, and with Aislinn Devlin shooting for a top 10 finish, DW looks pretty well set to make a run at a top 5 finish.
Overview: The Panthers are ranked #19 in VA and finished 7th in the ES last year. They were the champs in 2005. Roster: Brittney Whitt (121), Patterson Levitch (104), Gabby Runge (81), Daisy Hopper (79), Madison Carpenter (72) Team Data: 91.8 TR. 9th in the Adidas Challenge Championship. Comments: Midlothian will always be hoping that lightning strikes twice at VCP (figuratively of course), but it could have a struggle getting a top 15 place at ES in this year's tough crowd, though Brittney Whitt will be battling for a top 20 place.
Overview: The Falcons are ranked #25 in the US and #2 in PA. Last year they finished 3rd in the ES. Roster: Olivia Sargent (119), Erica Gray (114), Hannah Molloy (112), Maddie Sauer (102), Meredith Twomey (101), Bailey Balmer (99) Team Data: 109.0 TR. Finished 1st in the PIAA-AAA and PTXC-5 meets. Comments: Pennsbury always lives near the top at Eastern States, and the roughly estimated TR probably does not pinpoint their status for the meet. Fast-rising sophomore Olivia Sargent will be looking to get closer to her graduated sister Sara's 4th place finish from last year, and the young team could well have a breakout performance in a quest for another top 5 place.
Overview: The Hornets are ranked #8 in NJ. Roster: Marin Warner (122), Irene Garidas (91), Gina Delio (90), Lindsay Conlon (85), Gypsey Blue Cooper (60) Team Data: 89.8 TR. 3rd in Bowdoin-1 meet. Comments: A third swarm of Hornets at ES will be NJ's representative in Eastern States on the girls' side. The TR scores are from the tough Bowdoin course so they may well be vastly improved on at ES, and Marin Warner will be fighting for a top 20 place.
Overview: Holy Names are ranked #8 in NY-A and finished 4th at ES last year. Roster: Kaylee Scott (121), Lydia Williams (116), Leah Triller (114), Olivia Morrow (99), Meredith Franchini (80). Kaitlin Close is on recovery status. Team Data: 106.0 TR. Placed 8th in Queensbury-Championship. Comments: There is probably no team with more upward potential in the ES crowd than Holy Names, which finished 4th in the race last year. Dogged by injuries this year, the small school has had a light schedule and is hoping to recover for a second half run at a second consecutive NY Class B championship. HN had two finishers including frontrunner Kaylee Scott in the top 20 at ES last year, and a repeat is not out of the question.
Overview: The Cardinals are ranked 4th in NY-B and were 7th in the F race last year. Roster: Jessica Lawson (144), Morgan Gallagher (115), Madeline Ustanik (107), Katie Butler (102), Michelle Crook (101), Brittney Craven (98), Maeve Holman (97) Team Data: 113.8 TR. Finished 4th in the McQuaid-AAA race. Comments: Corning has exploded on the NY XC scene this year behind high-flying Jessica Lawson and a deep Cardinal team. Lawson will be dueling among the top 5 in the ES, and there is no better place for her and her team to have a coming-of-age statement race.
Overview: The Crusaders are unranked and were 15th in the ES last year, with Kennedy Weisner finishing 2nd. Roster: Kennedy Weisner (149), Tori Dippold (125), Lauryn Wortman (80), Nicki Florio (60), Ellie Pearson (31) Team Data: 89.0 TR. Finished 11th in the McQuiad-A race. Comments: US #20 runner Kennedy Weisner will one of the two favorites at ES coming off her runner-up finish last year, and with Tori Dippold giving the team a great 1-2 punch, the Crusaders may have a chance to get up for a top 15 finish again.
Overview: The Sea Kings are ranked #18 in CA and are making their first trip to the Manhattan. Roster: Cassidy Weber (123), McKennah Genovese (116), Camille Hines (113), Skylar Thiel (108), Abby Watson (106), Lauren Bourgeois (100) Team Data: 113.2 TR. 10th in the Woodbridge Cross Country Class-Sweepstakes race. Comments: The team from LA may not be getting much in the way of sunny weather on Saturday, but they will be bringing along speed rankings that indicate that they can hang pretty well with the East Coast teams. A top 10 place for the Sea Kings looks likely, and Cassidy Weber could be running to a top 20 place.
Overview: The Warriors are ranked #15 in NY-B and finished 12th at ES last year. Roster: Genny Corcoran (113), Erin Morrell (104), Annibel Coolican (92), Emily Washburn (91), Mary Washburn (87) Team Data: 97.4 TR. Placed 5th in the McQuaid-AA race. Comments: Westhill has a wide-ranging schedule and they have the potential to match their fine 12th place finish from last year. And the #3 runner has a very cool name.
Overview: The Spartans are ranked #4 in NY-B and were the champs in the D race last year. Roster: Megan Kellogg (121), Emily Guinther (117), Sherri Metcalfe (115), Kathryn Ackner (102), Rachel Guinther (97), Jennifer Messina (94) Team Data: 110.4 TR. Placed 1st in Grout-1 and 3rd in the Queensbury-Championship races. Comments: In the year that it will be hosting the New York State XC championship, Queensbury has been having a very nice season. With good depth behind front runner Megan Kellogg, a top 10 finish is likely, and a top 5 place is not out of the question.
Overview: The Goldbacks are rated #100 in NY (M). Roster: Gianna Frontera (127), Kalleigh Forrester (119), Radley Akoto (43), Deirdre Ryan (18), Yorleny Reyes. Team Data: 71.4 TR. Finished 7th in Bowdoin-2 race. Comments: Longtime senior stars Frontera and Forrester will get a chance to battle among the best at Eastern States. They finished 1-2 in the Queensbury-2 race earlier in the year.
Overview: The Rockets are ranked #8 in the US and #1 in KY. Roster: Emily Bean (122), Kelly O'Brien (117), Kenzley Defler (116), Bailey Davis (116), Amy Kieliszewski (115), Liz Coz (113), Cassidy McPherson (113) Team Data: 117.2 TR. Placed 1st in the Great American Race of Champions and 2nd at Palatine. Comments: Assumption has a deep and close-packed squad that is well traveled and very highly ranked. With another RoC championship in hand from last weekend, the Rockets will be fueled for another big performance at ES as they look for a shot to leap higher in the national rankings.
Overview: The Hawks are rated #9 in MD (M). Roster: Emily Mulhern (120), Maria Carberry (104), Kelly Winkbauer (78), Gabby Urso (66), Kara O'Neill (45), Abby Grabowski (45) Team Data: 82.6 TR. Finished 14th in the Oatlands-A and 4th at Urbana. Comments: Urbana's Emily Mulhern will be trying to get up for a top 20 place.
Overview: The Flaming Arrows are rated among top 30 teams in NY-A and were 8th in the D race last year. Roster: Elise Ramirez (110), Mackenzie Coleman (88), Katie Michta (86), Dowon Hwang (77), Oriana Howell (69) Team Data: 86.0 TR. Placed 2nd in the Suffolk Coaches-A. Comments: The Flaming Arrows have one of the best nicknames at Manhattan (though they have to share it with their sisters from the East), and they will be looking to get fired up for a top 15 place at ES.
Overview: The Indians are ranked #2 in the US and are #1 in PA. Frontrunner Courtney Smith is ranked #16 nationally. Roster: Courtney Smith (152), Olivia Young (141), Emily Fisher (141), Kacie Breeding (125), Elizabeth Edwards (122), Bridgette Zerbe (113), Molly Wentz (112), Camie Rickenbach (112) Team Data: 136.2 TR. Placed 1st in the McQuaid-AAA and Cherokee Challenge races. Comments: The Indians are counting on a big day and a fast finish both for top runner Courtney Smith and the high-flying team. Whether the VCP course will play to Unionville's strengths remains to be seen, but a big win here over three nationally ranked teams would make a statement about that #1 national ranking (speed ratings place them well ahead of Carmel, BTW).
Overview: The Cougars are ranked #2 in VA. Roster: Allie Klimkiewicz (131), Hailey Dougherty (110), Kara Kendall (109), Maryn McCarty (99), Casey Kendall (96) Team Data: 109.0 TR. Finished 2nd in Wendy's Invitational and 1st in Oatlands-A races. Comments: Allie Klimkiewicz leads her well-regarded team on a quest for a top 5 place for the team and a top 10 place for the runner.
Overview: The Trojans are among the top 25 teams in NY-B and last year were 4th in the F race. Roster: Stephanie Gerland (126), Jen Gerland (116), Caroline Ferri (96), Laurel Fisher (72), Emily Daempfle (32) Team Data: 88.4 TR. Placed 4th in the St. Anthony's-Large race. Comments: Although the Trojans are still led very ably by Stephanie and Jen Gerland, they have lost a lot of depth from last year's team that traveled to the NY States meet. A top 15 place appears to be the goal here.
Overview: The Rams are ranked #2 in RI and finished 6th at ES last year. Roster: Elize Rego (133), Karina Tavares (122), Rachel Renzi (96), Elise Papazian (94), Audrey O'Neill (90), Caroline Falvey (89) Team Data: 107.0 TR. Placed 7th in the Great American Race of Champions. Comments: The Rams just missed out on a top 5 place at ES last year and with Rego and Tavares looking for top 20 places the Rams should be in the top 10 this year. If last year's frontrunner Sheridan Wilber (inactive so far this year) gets back to full strength and is able to run on Saturday, the Rams will looking at a TR of around 116.0 and a very good shot at a top 5 place.
Overview: The Purples are composed seemingly of Madeline Berkson. Roster: Madeline Berkson (131) Team Data: NA Comments: Last minute sign up Classical will be running Madeline Berkson, who has a shot at a top 20 place. |
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4 of the top 25 ranked teams in the US, including 3 of the top 8